Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
The Fiscal Cliff Deal Just Made U.S. Bonds Even More Risky in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: It was shaping up to be another be another strong year for U.S. Treasury Bonds right up until the moment it looked like a fiscal cliff deal would be reached.
Since then, 10-year notes yields have been on the rise jumping by as much as 23 basis points since New Year’s Eve. Now you have to wonder whether or not the bond bubble has suddenly sprung a leak.
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Saturday, January 05, 2013
Over Due U.S. Treasury Bond Sell-off To Become More Serious! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
With my indicators on a sell signal for bonds since August 16, I have been warning about bonds being overbought and in danger of rolling over into a serious correction for several months. And indeed, the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond has already lost 11% of its value just since its late July peak.
Friday, January 04, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Worst Investment for 2013 and the Next Decade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest investor mistakes by the average retail investor is to be late to cash in on an investment theme. These investor mistakes are not limited to just the stock market, but all types of investments. If we look at investor mistakes by the retail public for buying real estate, most people were bullish at the top of the market and were selling, or were forced to sell, their real estate at the bottom. Buying high and selling low is one of the most common investor mistakes by the majority of the public.
Friday, January 04, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Pillar Crumbles / Politics / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
With the return of Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party to power in Japan, the market for US Treasuries may be losing its last external pillar of support. Re-elected on September 26th, Abe has quickly set a course for limitless inflation, saying Japan must "free itself from deflation and the strong yen." This is significant to the global economy as Japan is the largest foreign power left with a strong appetite for US Treasuries. If this demand falters, the Fed may be the only remaining buyer of new Treasury issuance.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
What Happens When the Bond Markets Turn Against the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The US Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low for the simple fact that if interest rates were to rise then the payments on the debt would send the US into an EU-syle debt crisis along with the commensurate intense austerity measures being implemented.
Unfortunately for the Fed, the bond markets may indeed force this in spite of the Fed’s efforts.
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Thursday, December 20, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Operation Twise and QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 is now only 1.29% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed yesterday at 1.84, which is only 4 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. With what looks like a Santa Rally in stocks underway, yields have risen to levels last seen about two months ago. What will be particularly interesting is how yields (and equities) fare in the last four market days of 2012 if the various Fiscal Cliff issues are not resolved by the end of this week.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Hidden U.S. Treasury Bond Market Risks? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Axel_Merk
While Treasuries are said to have no default risk as the Federal Reserve (Fed) can always print money to pay off the debt, hidden risks might be lurking. As oxymoronic as it may sound, the biggest risk to the economy and the U.S. dollar might be, well, economic growth! Let us explain.
Sunday, December 09, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yields Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The S&P 500 is now 3.25% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed today at 1.64, which is 24 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 3.34 percent, three basis point above its historic low set two weeks ago.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Will the U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Finally Burst in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The Federal Reserve's multi-year prescription of targeting super-low interest rates on federal funds, along with various quantitative easing programs, has pushed yields down on all fixed-income instruments to the benefit of issuers and the detriment of investors.
There is little doubt that the Fed's articulated and executed policies have resulted in a bond-bubble with both short and long-term consequences for investors and the economy.
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Friday, October 19, 2012
Is Bernanke Losing Control? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Marty_Chenard
We all know the talk ... Bernanke has a mission to keep long term interest and mortgage rates low. And, low mortgage rates will be good for housing and the economy.
But ... is Bernanke getting into trouble relative to his ability to keep rates low?
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Wednesday, October 10, 2012
The Muni Bond Market Minefield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
Municipal bonds have long been viewed as a staple asset class for conservative, income-seeking investors. "Munis," as they are known, are a large, liquid market of credit-rated securities that provide tax-exempt (from Federal taxes) income to millions of American investors. Towns, school districts, and other public sector authorities across the country have issued an estimated $3.7 trillion dollars worth of these bonds.
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Bond Market Investors Set up for a Shock, Major Top in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
During market pullbacks, financial advisors use a boilerplate response: "Let's rebalance the portfolio." Investors have heard that one for years.
The recommended allocation varies depending on a client's age and risk tolerance, but it typically involves shifting funds from stocks to bond holdings.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Major Top Report / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
BOND YIELDS ARE POISED TO BEGIN RISING ON THE WAY TO DEFLATIONARY CREDIT CRISIS
U.S Treasury Bonds Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conquer the Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted from lessening inflation to outright deflation. Figure 1 shows the forecast from 2002, and Figure 2 updates the graph to the present.
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Sunday, August 05, 2012
How to Prepare for the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Apocalypse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: The Wall Street Journal made an interesting observation recently, “Treasury bonds are priced for the end of the world.”
It was a news article, not an opinion piece. But it happens to be the viewpoint of virtually every investor with half a brain – or a modicum of common sense. A few months ago, for instance, the world’s best-known investor, Warren Buffett, wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, “Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”
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Thursday, July 26, 2012
US Treasury Bonds False Safe Haven, GOLD is the True Sanctuary / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
As preface, consider that the USTreasury 10-year yield went below 1.4% this week. Some unenlightened celebrate the asset appreciation and point to a successful asset in performance in an otherwise dismal financial market. The Jackass said in the June 6th public article "USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics" that such a success is a marquee billboard message of economic meltdown and systemic failure. As the rally continues, possibly the onliest rally outside of corn and soybeans in yet another disaster, people should focus on whether the systemic collapse will occur before the 10-yield hits 1.0% in my warning. Focus on four major points:
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach New Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Donald_W_Dony
US bond yields have been in a secular decline for over 20 years. The recent movement out of risk and growth assets and into the safety of fixed income has pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasuries down to a new low- 2.53%.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
We believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish on Bonds in 2010 and 2011, we remained bullish for two specific reasons. First, the 30 year Bond rate had not made a new bear market low. Second, the declining phase of the 68 year Bond cycle had not displayed any signs of bottoming. Recently this has changed.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. Treasury 30 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: WavePatternTraders
Having finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year).
Bonds have come roaring back to burn the bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years.
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Friday, June 15, 2012
U.S. Bond Market, The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated on Mankind / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rob_Kirby
A few years ago, when J.P. Morgan grew their derivatives book by 12 Trillion in one quarter [Q3/07] – I did some back of the napkin math – and figured out how many 5 and 10 year bonds the Morgue would have necessarily had to transact on their swaps alone – if they are hedged. The bonds required to hedge the growth in Morgan’s Swap book were 1.4 billion more in one day than what was mathematically available to the entire domestic bond market for a whole quarter?
Sunday, June 10, 2012
The Bond Market Boom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fred_Sheehan
Upon turning to this page, the speaker noted the 5-year returns show "an absolute flooding of the market and system with capital by central banks [QE, ESFS, LTRO...]. This has been an incredibly distortionary period." (The quotation is from notes, so is not exact.)
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