Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
US Fed Selling Treasuries as Federal Budget Deficit Doubles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In the 20 weeks ended April 23, the Federal Reserve's outright holdings of U.S. Treasury securities had fallen by $231 billion, which is an annualized decline of $600.7 billion (see Chart 1). Up until recently, the Fed has rarely been a net seller of U.S. Treasury securities (see Chart 2). Of course, the reason the Fed has become such a large net seller of U.S. Treasury securities is that it is now providing about 14% of total reserve credit via the discount window, the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) (see Chart 3). If the Fed does not want the fed funds rate to trade below its target rate, it has to drain reserves to offset the reserve injections via the discount window, TAF and PDCF.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
US Bond Investors Finally Waking Up to the New Reality of Massive Inflation! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: When the nation's most prominent bond investor, the man who is managing the world's largest bond fund, stops believing in U.S. government debt, it's time to stand up and take notice.
Bill Gross, the blackjack player-turned-bond king, whose words alone can spark rallies and selloffs in the $43-trillion bond market, has actually started betting against U.S. Treasury Bonds!
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
Fed Interest Rate Cut Could Spark Bond Market Panic Selling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week I have to highlight conditions in the bond markets as a priority, we maybe about to endure a bust of quite large proportions. I will also look at some longer term stock market indicators, confirmation that the Bank of England will follow the US and show why the current rally in stocks is due to a visit from an old friend, as readers at Livecharts.co.uk will know only too well.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Forget the Credit Crisis Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Clif_Droke
Let's turn our attention to something that isn't often discussed, namely bonds.
I know what some of you are saying already: “But bonds are boring!” Yes, they may well be boring in most instances. But this isn't one of those times. Actually, the message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic messages being sent anywhere in the financial markets right now and it behooves us to pay close attention to what bonds are saying.
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Monday, March 31, 2008
Picture du Jour: US Long Bonds in Injury Time / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Since the advent of the credit crisis, stock markets, real estate and the US dollar have been the subject of investors' angst. However, two markets – commodities and long bonds – have remained in bullish trends. That, at least, is the way it looked until recently.
The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index hit a peak on March 13, and I argued in a subsequent post that although a correction was overdue, the long-term trend was still upwards.
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Wednesday, March 05, 2008
US Treasury Bonds vs. the CRB Point to Bond Market Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
From 1980 until the spring of 2002, 10-year Treasury note yields held a positive correlation with the CRB index. Since 2002, however, there has been a dramatic divergence between Treasury yields and commodity prices. This trend is unsustainable in the long term because bond yields must eventually reflect rising inflationary pressures and at some point offer a positive real after-tax return.
There can be only two possible conclusions reached when viewing this disparity, shown in the chart below. One is that commodity prices are no longer an indication of inflationary pressures, a ridiculous contention that cannot be taken seriously. After all, the CRB Index contains 19 commodities that include precious metals, base metals, agriculture and energy, broad measures of the pricing pressures that exist in today's economy.
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Friday, February 15, 2008
US Treasury Bonds: Safe Haven or Wealth Cemetery? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alex_Wallenwein
You know the spiel. Every time the stock markets drop, the financial press reports that US treasuries benefitted from the move in a “safe haven bid” - whatever that means.
Let's examine how safe US treasuries really are:
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Friday, February 15, 2008
Looming US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Clive_Maund
Like frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.
Let's just stop and think about this for a moment - just what is a Treasury Bond? - it is a piece of paper telling you that you are going to receive a fixed sum of US dollars at some designated point in the future.
Friday, February 08, 2008
US Treasury Bond Market - The Mother of all Bubbles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
In contrast to the dismal forecasting record of mainstream economists over the last few years, the forecasts that I have made regarding the dollar, oil, commodities, precious metals, global stock markets, inflation, and the U.S. economy have all come to pass. In addition, unlike the top economic oracles on Wall Street and in Washington, I can also point to similar accuracy in predicting the bursting of growing bubbles, first with technology in the late 1990's, and more recently with real estate. However, my long-standing prediction about the fate of the bond market has fared much worse. I still do believe this prediction was not wrong, but simply premature. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Bullish on US Treasury Bonds, Despite Near-term Correction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) closed about 80 cents off their earlier highs at 93.87 in what turned out to be a vertical panic-like move, the strength of which certainly surprised me (yesterday afternoon, in particular). The target of 94.00 did not surprise me, just the speed that it was achieved.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Mortgage Bonds Crash in Value , Banking Sector Deception to Send Gold Soaring to $1000 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An avalanche comes in 2008. Its wreckage will hit both the USEconomy and banking world. The greatest deception in the bank sector this year has been the misrepresentation of the mortgage debacle as a subprime problem. That is akin to calling an iceberg only a problem for what one can see, when 90% of its mass lies below water. Ice is lighter than water. Most mortgage bonds are like acidic stones weighing down bank and investor balance sheets. Wall Street and the USGovt con artists, using tools are fraud and distortion, prefer the public and investment community to think of the ‘Subprime Problem' as the source of distress.
On mortgage bonds, collateralized debt obligation derivatives, structured investment vehicles, all dominant in the news, reports constantly stress how the problem is traced to subprime mortgages to all those unworthy home loan borrowers who never should have been given such loans, even at higher mortgage rates. The systemic threat, both to the US banking system and USEconomy, has entered a new stage. The remedy addressed is sure to force the USDollar lower and the gold price higher, to occur in the next gear. Breakouts are coming which will seem to lose control, like what was seen in September and October.
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Monday, December 10, 2007
Nuclear Bond Implosion Ahead As Long-term Inflationary Expectations Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alex_Wallenwein
The US Fed's measure for long term inflationary expectations may keep it from dropping rates much further, potentially setting off a 'nuclear' bond-price implosion. An only hours-old Bloomberg article details why "Chopper-Bernie" may have to ground his inflation-helicopter much earlier than anyone expects.In essence, an inflation indicator used by the Fed, and literally signed off on by Alan Greenspan, indicates that bond investors' long-term inflationary expectations are on the rise - and significantly so.
Bond investors have recently been lulled into a false sense of security by the alleged 'fact' that inflation remained so low.
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Tuesday, November 27, 2007
US Treasury Bond Market Rockets As Yields Drop Sharply on Flight to Safety / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The bond market is going wild again on the upside, thereby pressing 10 year T-note yield to 3.94% from Friday's close at 4.01%, while the 2 year T-note is yielding 3.04%... Let's take a look at the TLT's (Lehman 20 year T-bond ETF)...Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 19, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Bond Market Rallies Despite Rising Inflation, Stocks to Buck Season Trend and Head Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The inflation figures released last week did little to derail the bond rally of the past few months. While it was in-line with expectations, the year-to-year inflation figures are running higher than many are comfortable with and as such, expect that the Fed is not going to cut rates that is already factored into the market. This holiday week, we'll get some housing data that many are hoping will indicate that housing is beginning to stabilize.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Rush For Treasury Bonds Safety As Risks Rise At Cash Money Market Funds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Certain “yield enhanced short term bond funds” which have been offered as higher yield substitutes for money market funds have been feeling the pinch from the credit markets. The latest victim is a company that you'd not normally think of as a finance company, General Electric Company. “The diversified manufacturing company's money management arm, GEAM, which oversees the $5 billion GEAM Trust Enhanced Cash Fund, is still invested in the fund, but GE warned last week that it would sell holdings amid tough market conditions. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Treasury Bonds Real Interest Rates Go Negative as Yields Dip Below Inflation on Panic Safe-haven Buying / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Hardly anyone's noticed, but the frenzy of safe-haven bond-buying has just pushed real yields on US Treasuries below zero..."
IT'S BEEN A TOUGH WEEK for anyone Buying Gold just below its all-time record high of $850 per ounce last Friday.
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Thursday, November 15, 2007
Strong Uptrend in US Treasuries Suggesting Recession - Long Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
One very curious aspect of the powerful upmove in the equity market during the past 24 hours is the lack of opposite selling pressure in the bond market and Lehman 20-year T-note ETF (AMEX: TLT). If in fact last week's plunge in equities (into yesterday morning) aroused fears of an implosion, and with it a flight to safety in the bond market, then removal of such fears might be expected to reverse or eliminate the flight-to-safety premium. From the look and the behavior of the TLT's today, I have to wonder what is preserving the buoyancy of the long end of the Treasuries?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 02, 2007
US 10-Year Yields Press to New Lows on Weakening Economy, Lift TLTs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The strong upmove in the Lehman 20 Year T-note ETF (AMEX: TLT) suggests that notwithstanding this AM's strong Jobs Report, the bond market thinks that the economy is inherently weaker, and/or more vulnerable to the housing and credit crunch than most people think. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 19, 2007
Who Bought the US Treasury Bonds ? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rob_Kirby
According to the U.S. Treasury – the latest TIC data [August] tells us the following:
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for August
Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury web site ( www.treas.gov/tic ). The next release, which will report on data for September, is scheduled for November 16, 2007.
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Friday, August 24, 2007
More Upside for US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Lehman 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues to grind to new 4-month highs….See our recent daily chart, in which we note that our near and intermediate-term work continue to "warn" us to expect another surge in the TLT that thrusts prices towards 89, which appears to be gaining upside strength as we speak. The weakness in the equity indices hardly can be considered acute, yet the long end of the yield curve is ratching down (lower rates) to reflect expectations of…what?
An economic slowdown?