Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Peter Schiff, Why It's Time To Dump Most US Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Stocks are widely believed to provide inflation protection since factories, equipment and inventories rise in value as prices generally increase. Historically, stocks have in fact tended to rise with inflation rates, but too much inflation has caused volatility and raised a question as to whether stocks really are a reliable inflation hedge.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Stock Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Mutual Fund Managers Get Stock Market Timing Wrong … Again! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
History shows that as a group mutual fund managers act like a typical crowd … susceptible to herding and group thinking.
They are most heavily invested near important market tops. And at market bottoms most of them turn bearish. That will never change … it’s human nature.
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010
3 Reasons Now is Not the Time to Speculate in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
When it's sunny, you head outside without a thought, but when it's rainy, you look for your umbrella.
When the markets are trending up, you don't worry about your investments much, but when the markets turn bearish ... what do you do?
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
The Stock Market Has Become Fatally Expensive, Devaluation Wave Could Push Stocks To March 2009 Lows / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As I said in last week’s column, liquidity indicators and leading economic indicators have deteriorated quickly since March. At the same time sentiment indicators reached levels usually seen at stock market highs. All three are the main components of my forecasting model.
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Stock Market S&P500 Death Cross or Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Much has been made of the "Death Cross" that happened on July 2, 2010 in the S&P500. The "Death Cross" occurs when the 50 day moving average of price crosses below the 200 day moving average. Many interpret this technical "phenomena" bearishly, but as usual, folks are only reading the headlines and not critically looking at the numbers. There is more to this story. So what does the data say?
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Latest ECRI Economic Leading Indicator Confirms Bearish Stock Outlook! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
In last week’s Money and Markets column, I recommended getting out of the stock market. This was based on my cyclical model having turned bearish. Plus there was a clear breakout of the S&P 500 and many other global indexes from their well-formed, topping formations.
On the same day my column came out, stock markets around the world started a nice rally … and in just three days the S&P 500 was up nearly 5 percent!
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Stocks Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
While many people spend time yearning for the financial markets to turn back up, a rare few have looked back in time to compare historical markets with the current situation -- and then delivered a clear-eyed view of the future informed by knowledge of the past. One who has is Robert Prechter. When he thinks about markets and wave patterns, he goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and -- most tellingly for our time now -- the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
Stock Market Oversold Rally will Soon be Dead / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Everyone is looking for signs of a continued recovery. Unfortunately there are many misleading signs that trap all but those willing to look beneath the surface to see what is really happening.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Rally Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The stock market’s rise since the March 2009 lows was nothing more than a bear market rally. Yes, it was a huge rally, but not out of the realm of similar historical examples.
Low trading volume, still high valuations and lingering economic problems — especially within the real estate sector and the banking system — have been strong arguments for my outlook. And the history of burst real estate bubbles could serve as a blueprint for our current dilemma.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Stock Market Death Cross, It is 1932 All Over Again / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Great Depression is a time that stands out as a time of great debate. During the Great Depression, FDR acted nearly exactly as we have in the Great Recession, expanding the size and scope of the government and pushing through new spending bills to incite economic activity. However, as the dust begins to settle from the first boom, investors are again looking for the bust.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Stock Market Approaches Bear Territory, S&P Near-Term Price Target 900 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The S&P 500 is just about in official bear market territory (conventionally defined as down 20%). While the index closed on the stock market at about 1023 on Friday July 2, the CME Globex E-Mini index futures are at about 1006 at about 10:00 PM on July 5 before the July 6 open. That would place the index down 17.6%, and moving steeply downward.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
U.S. Stocks Death Cross, Heading Down, Deeper and Down / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
After an impressive rally of over 80% from the lows made in March 2009, the US stock market looks ripe for another plunge south. This rally was never sustainable, rather than being built on solid fundamentals and a genuine economic and business recovery, it was merely the result of multi-billion dollar bailouts, near zero interest rates and the feeling that no matter how bad things get, the government will save the day and stop any Armageddon scenario.
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Monday, July 05, 2010
Wall Street Stock Market Death Cross Signals Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Standard & Poor's 500 50-day moving average stands poised to cross beneath the 200-day moving average. To those in the financial industry, this is known as a "death cross", and it is a very powerful indicator that we could be entering a bearish period. So is this yet another sign that we are on the verge of a recession? Well, anyone who has spent much time trying to interpret financial charts will tell you how inexact that science can be. Financial markets can be wildly unpredictable, and there is always a tremendous amount of manipulation going on behind the scenes.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
Was S&P 1220 The Stocks Secular Bear Market Rally Top? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in a confirmed intermediate downtrend.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Long Decline Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Red Flags on the Economy, Stock Market Death Cross Forming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The market seems to have run out of buyers. Recently, on days when the market goes up, the volume is light. On days when the market goes down, volume soars with passionate intensity.
The babbling heads on TV make the bullish case enough, so I’ll just summarize it: Basically, corporate profit margins surged to 36% in the first quarter. Since records began in 1947 they have never been this high. Meanwhile, bond yields are pitifully low. There is no better place, say bulls, to put your money than in the market’s leading stocks.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
Stock Market Technical Tipping Point Critical Bear Signal / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
History will remember this day. Whether or not the equity market cracks tomorrow or the next day or in a few weeks time, today is the day that it gave off a critically important signal.
Today is the day that it showed that the 200 day moving average represents resistance to further rises as opposed to support against further falls.
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Sunday, June 20, 2010
Robert Prechter Stocks Bear Market Long Down Wave / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Robert Prechter discussed the recent global sell-off that has sent all major U.S. averages 10% below their 2010 highs with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task. Prechter says that the current climate shows that "we're in a wave of recognition" where the fundamentals are catching up to the technicals and that it's time to prepare for a "long way down."
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Friday, June 18, 2010
End of the Financial Mania Era, an Early History of the Great Asset Mania / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It's true that many investors, analysts and certainly the mainstream press have been baffled by the past three years of market volatility and economic chaos.
But when you read in the headlines that, "No one saw it coming," please know, dear reader, that the statement is false.
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