Category: Commodities Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Seasonal Trading Charts for Dow, Gold, Crude Oil and Gas / Commodities / Commodities Trading
The market has had a fantastic week so far for stocks and precious metals. The financial and energy sector are underperforming which is a concern, but we continue to hold our positions and will wait until a reversal to lock in our gains.
Things seem to be lining up for stocks and precious metals to take a breather, which is in line with the Dow Jones Seasonal chart below.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
USD$ Reaches Key Support / Commodities / Commodities Trading
KEY POINTS
• USD$ hits major support zone. Stability expected until Q1
• Gold reaches second target of $1145, Weakness expected by January
• Oil starts seasonal strength in December. $88-$89 remains next target
Monday, November 30, 2009
The Speculator / Commodities / Commodities Trading
My first financial newsletter was called “The Speculator.” My dictionary defines speculate as:
- “to engage in thought or reflection;”
- “to buy and sell commodities, stocks, etc. in the expectation of a profit through a change in their market value.”
- from Latin, speculatus, observed, examined:
Friday, November 27, 2009
EUA, Carbon Emissions, Favour Short Term Bears / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Price swings over the last few months have kept the charts in consolidation mode, below a long term key Fibo resistance level. Recent losses have temporarily tilted the scales more in favour of the bears, but losses should prove temporary in the grander scheme of things.
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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Weak U.S. Dollar Boosts Commodities, What’s Next? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Another fantastic week for precious metals as the US dollar continues its slide lower. Energy commodities like oil and natural gas are having some difficulty finding buyers.
When commodities start to trend they become very profitable for those riding them up or down. But when a short term trend starts to virtually go straight up (parabolic) then we must be prepared for a sharp pullback. Once the price starts to slide I figure a lot of short term traders will begin locking in profits, sending gold down.
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Monday, November 23, 2009
Cotton Commodity Bulls Waver At 61.8% Recovery Level / Commodities / Commodities Trading
The recovery in Cotton from its Nov-08 low slowed during the summer, at one stage suggesting a reversal was in the offing. However, an Oct break to the upside kept bulls on track for the next upside target around a 61.8% recovery level – and now there are indications that a temporary pullback is due.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Commodity Trading Trend Following Advisors 2009 Performance / Commodities / Commodities Trading
We can see that there is still a “red sea” of negative performance in October, both for the monthly and YTD reporting.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
Energy and Precious Metals ETF Trading Report / Commodities / Commodities Trading
So far this week has been generous with our commodity ETFs moving higher, other than natural gas which is clearly in a bear market. Each of the commodity ETF trading charts below is at a different stage and it will be interesting to see how things unfold in the coming weeks.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Using Mental Stops in Commodity & Forex Trading / InvestorEducation / Commodities Trading
In my years of experience trading commodities, it seems the only time mental stops should be used is by a large trader who doesn’t want his open stop sitting in the market for the fear that someone might run their stop.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
ETF Commodities Trading Analysis and Forecasts for GLD, SLV and UNG / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Commodities continue to perform well as the US dollar tests the October lows. If we step back and take a look at the weekly charts of the gold, silver, oil and natural gas ETFs we can get a better feel for what to expect in the coming week.
Trading commodity ETFs can be a very fun and profitable experience when done correctly. The first things I always analyze are the longer time-frame charts. This allows me to see past support and resistance levels and determine whether the investment is trending up, down or sideways.
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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Trading Commodities, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Using ETFs / Commodities / Commodities Trading
So far this week has been slow in regards to commodity etf funds. Gold continues to shine while silver refuses to make a move higher. Crude oil has a nice bull flag and we are waiting for a breakout and setup while natural gas continues to see selling pressure.
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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Commodity Companies Index (CCI) Up 214% YTD! / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Up until now investors, analysts and newsletter writers have relied on the price performance of the commodities themselves (such as gold, silver, crude oil, etc.), the Reuters CRB Commodity Index or the HUI, XAU, GDM or CDNX indices to determine the health, performance and trends in commodities.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Compound Your Way To Wealth With Commodity Tradin / Commodities / Commodities Trading
I have had countless conversations with investors and even institutional investors that do not believe that commodity trading and trend following can compound ones money to wealth. Besides the fact that only trend following and commodity trading are the most liquid, the most transparent and most highly regulated industries the common belief commodity trading is risky. Well the truth is, everything is risky. Even staying in cash these days is risky.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Commodity Report for Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Everyone is talking about commodities as the place to be in the coming months. I tend to agree, but it is still important to know where each commodity is trading to maximize returns and reduce risk.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
You Need to Let Your Profits Run in Commodity Trading / InvestorEducation / Commodities Trading
Letting your profits run in commodity trading is one of the most basic attributes of trend following. Commodity traders that adhere to this tenant put themselves in a position of potential long term success. The problem is that many new or inexperienced commodity traders do not have either the patience or discipline to let profits run. They are afraid that the trend might turn around or that they will give up profits. This is one of the major reasons commodity traders fail. When one uses a mechanical trading system ( if they can follow the signals) it forces the commodity trader to follow the trend…and let profits run.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Commodities Are on the Move / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Gold is now safely above the $1,000 mark, and there are two aspects to this, one good, one bad. The good aspect is that $1,000 is now a floor (whereas from March 2008 to Sept. 2009 it acted as a ceiling). The bad aspect is that we are now vulnerable t to a pull back to $1,000., and we need to be on guard for this possibility. Pull backs to support are tricky and come when least expected. The decline in gold to $680 just a year ago was a decline to the support defined by the giant symmetrical triangle of 2006-07. The support was at the apex of the triangle, which was precisely $680 (on the semi-log chart).
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commodities ETF Trading / Commodities / Commodities Trading
The past week in gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the broad market wasn’t anything to write home about. We are seeing controlled profit taking which is making the market choppy. Many traders are getting very bearish on the market which is a good thing in my opinion. According to my market internals, sentiment and volume analysis we should get a shake out (sharp dip) which would make traders exit their positions before the market continues higher.
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Gold and Crude Oil Rally, A Long Term Look / Commodities / Commodities Trading
When you get right down to it, no matter what techniques one might rely on for his investment decisions there is one thing that they all have in common. In order to be successful an investor has to be on the right side of the longer term trends.
We are all bombarded with daily charts and sometimes weekly, but looking at the long term monthly charts can reveal areas where price on the long term has historically shown to be important turning or continuation points. Not only do they give you a perspective or where price has been in the past, it gives you an idea of where price is now in relation to where major peaks and bottoms occurred.
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Thursday, October 22, 2009
Commodity Trading Report for Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Precious Metals – Gold GLD fund – Silver SLV Fund – PM Stocks GDX Fund
We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. I pointed this out last week mentioning that gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. This is what we want to see. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Commodity Trading Charts for Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Precious Metals / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Oct 18, 2009
Commodities continue to climb with several commodities making new highs for the year. The equities market continues to push higher with 3rd quarter earnings coming in better than expected. This good news has aroused more investors to put what’s left of their money back into the market which has been the fuel for this recent rally in stocks.