Category: Economic Recovery
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 and 2011, The Stealth Election Boom / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression, after unlimited bailouts , hitting the Quantitative Easing panic button and running a huge 15% of GDP budget deficit, the UK economy has managed to claw its way back out of recession as the Q4 data will show when released during late January 2010.
Friday, December 25, 2009
UK Retail Sales Signal Debt Fuelled Election Consumer Boom / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of an inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I aim to complete the whole scenario including interest rates, economy and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Staggered Return to Global Economic Growth For 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Victoria_Marklew
We are ushering in 2010 on a note of guarded hope, unlike the dawn of 2009 when great apprehension about the global economy was the predominant theme. Three broad aspects stand out as the curtain closes on 2009. First, recession is now a matter of history. Second, massive financial sector blowups are mostly behind us, but smaller yet significant tempests cannot be ruled out. Third, an arduous economic recovery is nearly certain. Against this backdrop, we think the world economy will move ahead with mixed economic momentum but mostly tilted toward a positive economic growth trajectory. We begin with predictions of economic growth, inflation, and unemployment, then take a look at fiscal challenges, currency issues and potential asset valuation problems in selected countries.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Revising U.S. Q4 Economic Growth Higher but 2010 Will Still Be Weak / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Largely because of some recently-released economic reports, we have bumped up our real GDP forecast significantly for Q4:2009 and much less so for all of 2010. But we have not changed our fundamental view of the 2010 economic outlook. That view is that the recovery will continue through 2010, but will not be vigorous. Because we expect growth in the first half of 2010 to be slower than it was in the second half of 2009, we would not be surprised to hear the talking heads on CNBC start yapping about a "double dip." They are likely to be wrong, as usual.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Bernanke's Faux Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
"Economic recovery" is a term that has no fixed meaning. But it's worth mulling-over to determine whether aggregate demand is strong enough to keep the economy from tipping back into recession. In normal times, the Fed slashes interest rates to increase the flow of capital to the markets and to consumers via lending at the banks. That's the traditional method of "jump starting" the economy. The Fed has never initiated policies which provide unlimited guarantees for underwater financial institutions. Nor has it ever poured more than a trillion dollars directly into the financial system by creating excess reserves at the banks and direct purchases of long-term assets. (Quantitative Easing) All of this is new.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Auto and Gasoline Sales Help Boost November Retail Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: LiveCharts
Despite initial reports from many retailers that the start to the holiday season has been relatively sluggish, the Commerce Department reported Friday (December 11) morning that retail sales climbed by 1.3 per cent in November. This follows a 1.1 per cent boost in retail performance during October.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Bernanke Blamed, U.S. Economy Lost Revenues and Inflation /Deflation Fears / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In the words of one of my favorite singer-song writers, Willie Nelson (another one of my favorites is Marisa Kasriel), I am on the road again. Forthwith are some thoughts that came to me as I listened to Willie on recent flights.
Did Bernanke Get Grilled for the Sins of Others?
Before hitting the "send" button on the hate email, let me tell you that Ben Bernanke is not an indispensable Fed chairman. I have no doubt that there are many people who could do a better job than he (but no one has called). Having said that, I was amused by some of the haranguing he was subjected to at his Senate confirmation hearing last week. Okay, now you can hit the "send" button.
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Monday, December 07, 2009
Where Is the U.S. Economy Heading? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Frank_Shostak
Economists are currently divided on the issue of how strong the US economic recovery is going to be. Some are of the view that as a result of the stimulus policies of the Fed and the Federal government, the recovery is going to be quite strong. Some others are more pessimistic given still-rising unemployment, which they believe will keep consumer spending subdued. In October the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% from 9.8% in the previous month and 6.6% in October last year.
Friday, December 04, 2009
The Economic Recovery Is Looking Stronger Every Week / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
The stimulus efforts were expensive for sure, and the cost, like the cost of two 7-year wars that were supposed to be three-month skirmishes, will be with us for years to come. But the stimulus efforts at least seem to be working even faster than expected.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
China Will Continue to Drive the Global Economic Recovery in 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: China isn’t just leading the global economic recovery – it’s lapping the field.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an 8.9% annual rate in the third quarter – the fastest pace in a year and up from 7.9% in the second quarter And the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for China’s GDP to jump more than 10% in the final three months of 2009, setting the stage for double digit growth in 2010.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
A Faith-Based Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: TheDailyReckoning
Joel Bowman writes: Today we have something extraordinary for you to ponder. We call it, in the prescribed, politico-doublespeak of the times, a “recovery.” Allow us to elaborate for just a moment…
Thursday, November 26, 2009
While Economic Pundits Play "Gotcha," the Unemployment Situation Improves / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The best measure of the current condition of the labor market is the state unemployment insurance data. These data are not samples or surveys with guesstimates of how many new jobs were created by new businesses, but the head count of actual people standing in actual unemployment insurance lines. Too be sure, because a government entity is doing the counting, the first count is not always the most accurate count. But after four weeks of counting and recounting, the number that emerges is the one that remains for all times. The monthly labor reports from the Establishment and Household surveys get revised over and over, literally, for years.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Will Christmas Shopping Save the Economic Recovery as Black Friday Nears? / Politics / Economic Recovery
By: Danny_Schechter
Funny how, back in 1929, we had black Thursday and then Black Friday as the market crashed, plunging the country into a depression. Now we have every retailer in every mall in America on their knees praying for a prosperous black Friday this week.
Here’s the scenario as Thanksgiving rolls around.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
The Pro-Free-Market Program for Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: George_Reisman
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen: As you all know, we are in a severe economic downturn. The official unemployment rate now exceeds 10 percent and according to many observers is actually substantially higher. Within the last year or so, our financial system has been rocked to its foundations. The collapse of the housing bubble and the numerous defaults and bankruptcies connected with it brought down major financial institutions, such as Bear-Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. It also brought down numerous small and medium-sized banks and threatened to bring down even such banking giants as Citigroup and Bank of America.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Will Consumer Spending Really be Different This Time? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
Most analysts believe the American consumer has changed their free spending ways. Every article on the state of the consumer indicates they have cut their spending, are saving more, and paying off their enormous debt. Everywhere you go, they expect this pattern will continue as the consumer had fundamentally changed their ways. But have they really?
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Our Steroidally Challenged Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
Birds are singing, the sun is shining and life is beautiful again. On the surface, the vital signs of our economy are improving with every economic report. In some areas, like unemployment, the rate of decline is decelerating; in others, like GDP, decline is turning into growth.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
U.S. Economy Will Dodge Double Dip Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Historically, the U.S. stock market has been one of the key leading indicators of a U.S. economic rebound.
With the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up more than 60% from its March lows – and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 40% – prognosticators are finally confident that the U.S. economy will dodge the “double-dip” recession that has been the focus of much fear since the Bush and Obama administrations launched their financial counterattacks on the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
GDP Forecasts Revised Higher and Gold Boosted by Negative Returns in All Currencies / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I travel for business purposes a lot these days. Moreover, the battery life on my laptop is limited. As a result, at least these are the excuses I am offering, I do not have as much time to write as I used to. Hence the dearth of Econtrarians. Once a month we must update our economic and interest rate forecasts. Given that I have little new to say about the forecast this month, as was the case last month, I am again using the update as an opportunity to communicate some thoughts I have had over the past month but have not had the opportunity until now to jot them down.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The Case For Jobless Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
Jobless growth, a term that makes one pause. With an economy where the consumer comprises about 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is hard to imagine how it can grow without more people working. Yet that is what the U.S. faces as the economy recovers from the worst recession since the 1930’s.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
U.S. Economy Returns to Growth, Media Premature Boasting of Glory / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Browne
Last week, to the delight of its media cheerleaders, the government announced that economic growth had returned and the recession had ended. But before we start celebrating one quarter of modest growth, we should realize the only force driving this apparent recovery is an enormous increase in government spending. To finance its largesse, the government is now borrowing at a rate that has ordinary citizens and the international community extremely concerned.