Category: Financial Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Republicans Take the House and QE Too! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PhilStockWorld
By Now, like many Americans, the Democrats know what it's like to lose their House.
Back in the mid-1800's, the nation had another kind of Tea Party as the Whigs became a successful 3rd party, even going so far as to put two men in the White House - William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor plus Millard Fillmore, who succeeded "Old Rough and Ready" who died just after a year in office but that was a long term compared to Harrison, who caught pneumonia making a long inauguration speech in the freezing rain and died of it a month later despite attempts to cure him with opium, castor oil and leeches - treatments we are likely to see again as the Republicans vow to repeal Health Care legislation.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Stocks and Bonds Waiting on Politics and Policies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Katherine_Nixon
Risk assets continued to rally in October, carrying over the positive momentum from September. While historically cruel months for equities, this autumn proved to be an exceptional exception: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 has advanced roughly 13% in the past two months. The S&P 500 rose 3.7% in October, its best October since 2003, and the Dow, Nasdaq and Russell indexes gained 3.1%, 5.9% and 4%, respectively. The international markets also participated in this "risk-on" trade and developed markets as well as emerging market indexes gained, with the MSCI EAFE up 3.6% and the MSCI EM rising 2.9%.
Monday, November 01, 2010
How Far Will Fed Go To Get the U.S. Economy Rolling? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes:The market has been marking time lately as investors await the election results and the much -anticipated Federal Reserve announcement after the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up their meeting on Wednesday.
The Fed is expected to provide a peek into its next round of quantitative easing, now considered a fait accompli. The only question seems to be how far the Fed will go to reinvigorate the economy.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
The Federal Reserve Casts Its Ghostly Shadow Over the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Bob_Kirtley
This week will see the opening of Ben Bernanke’s Quantitative Easing box. Out of which will jump a giant stimulus rabbit along with a few difficult to interpret actions lightly disguised as helpful aids and more commonly known as the product of the printing press. Mark Wednesday, 3rd November 2010, 18:15 GMT in your diary as this speech is the most important speech of this year.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
America’s long wave versus the Global long wave, Stocks Economy and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Clif_Droke
The stock market has always been a dynamic affair but until the turn of the century 10 years ago, there were always a few tried-and-true relationships you could always count on. For instance, in the 20th century it was almost always true that if the broad market as reflected by the Dow or the S&P was rallying and the gold and oil stocks were also rallying, the rise in the broad market was viewed as suspect and in most cases would soon reverse. It was said that “What’s good for gold/oil is bad for stocks.” Then along came the bull market of 2003-2007, which completely blew that relationship out of the water.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Fed Fights to Hold Up Stocks into Election, The Accelerating Inflation Mega-Trend / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is holding up well into the U.S. mid-term elections, clearly the Fed is fighting to support stocks against a due technical correction from overbought levels after the strong bull run of the past 2 months. Market manipulation is nothing new, it has been around since the birth of the stock markets and their insurance precursors, current market manipulations have their roots in the 1987 crash when the Fed stepped in to Push the Dow UP from another pre-open 250 point crash (15%) (1987 Crash Trading).
Saturday, October 30, 2010
U.S. GDP Report Good for Main Street, Maybe Not for Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Sy_Harding
The long-awaited report on economic growth in the third quarter was released Friday morning, and was a somewhat pleasant surprise. After declining from an annualized growth rate of 5.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth declined to 3.7% in the first quarter of this year, and to just 1.7% in the second quarter.
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
Is the U.S. heading for Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PhilStockWorld
Is bad news going to be good news?
Last quarter, after several adjustments, it has been decided that our GDP grew at a 1.7% rate. The general consensus is that this quarter we should be up around 2% but the whisper number is a big miss, down to 1.3%. Slower GDP growth will be GOOD for the stock market as it gives Ben and Tim the excuse they need to crank up the printing presses for some real Zimbabwe-style inflation.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Ultra Low US Inflation Makes QE A Markets Slam Dunk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
U.S. stocks fell marginally on Thursday, weighed down by 3M who drove industrial shares lower after cutting its profit forecast, helping erase an early gain triggered by Exxon Mobil’s better-than-estimated earnings report. 3M sank 5.9% for it’s biggest loss since February 2009, after saying full-year earnings will be 6 cents lower than previously forecast. And Halliburton dropped 8% as a report cited unstable cement the company recommended to cap BP Plc’s Gulf of Mexico oil well as a factor in the spill. But Exxon bucked the downtrend and rose 0.8% as growing global fuel demand helped boost earnings.
Friday, October 29, 2010
The Fed Underwrites Asset Price Explosion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Fred_Sheehan
"That the economists...can explain neither prices nor the rate of interest nor even agree what money is reminds us that we are dealing with belief not science." ~ James Buchan, Frozen Desire (1997)
The Federal Reserve is in disarray. Unsure of whether its QE2 strategy (quantitative easing - second round) should be tabled (see speeches of Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank) or if it should pump $10 trillion into the economy (the unsolicited advice from economic columnist Paul Krugman), the New York Federal Reserve Bank has now asked bond dealers what it should decide at its upcoming November 3 meeting. ["Fed Asks Dealers to Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases."]. Since it is the belief in the integrity and competence of the Fed that backs the dollar, asking Wall Street what it wants is another reason to sell dollars.
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
2011 Boom Time for Businesses that Profit From the Suffering of Others / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PhilStockWorld
Please Baby, One More Chance - That is how Jon Stewart summed up the Democrats' strategy for the President last night. It was a great interview and I won't rehash it here but it's well worth watching. At this point, it's very likely the Democrats keep the Senate and the President made several mentions of the Senate rules that have allowed the Republicans to filibuster over 90% of legislation brought before the Senate in the past two years, which has ground the Government to a virtual halt and prevented the Democrats from advancing their agenda. I'm sure if you are a Conservative you think that's a great thing, but it's not Democracy - it makes a mockery of the process. If things work out, the Dems plan to change the rules of the Senate when the Senate disbands for the elections after which point it will only take a simple majority vote to pass the laws.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
What Does Doctor Copper Say on the Health of the Economy? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PhilStockWorld
They call it "Doctor Copper" because copper pricing is a pretty good indicator of economic health. It's more of a demand metal than gold or silver and hard to fake and there aren't any silly ETFs stockpiling it although China has socked away a full-year's supply, which has given copper a very false sense of demand while our masters hoarded the World's substantial excess capacity at an average of less than $2.50 per pound. China is up 52% on their investment, not bad considering they're holding 300,000 tons of it.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
The Wall Street Buttonwood Gathering - View from the Top / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PhilStockWorld
This was an interesting event!
On May 17th 1792, twenty-four stock brokers met under a buttonwood tree outside 68 Wall Street and agreed to set up the New York Stock and Exchange board. The tree was a symbol of Wall Street, but also, it was where people originally met to trade, to discuss and to argue.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Liquidity Traps, Falling Velocity, Commodity Hoarding, and Bernanke's Misguided Tinkering / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
John Hussman has an interesting post this week on the misguided policies of the Bernanke Fed and how quantitative easing promotes commodity speculation and hoarding but does nothing for the real economy. Please consider Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap
The belief that an increase in the money supply will result in an increase in GDP relies on the assumption that velocity will not decline in proportion to the increase in money. Unfortunately for the proponents of "quantitative easing," this assumption fails spectacularly in the data - both in the U.S. and internationally - particularly at zero interest rates.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 25, 2010
Weekend SPX, Dollar, Oil and Gold Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week was volatile thanks to China raising their interest rates a quarter basis point. This rate hike caused the Dollar to spike in value which in turn forced equities and metals to sell off sharply. This one day event caused equities to break below a short term support level causing a large number of protective stops to be triggered. This added more selling pressure causing the market to be down nearly 2.5% at one point but a late day bounce recouped a good chunk of the drop.
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Sunday, October 24, 2010
The Fed’s Inflation Crusade, POMO Making its Presence Felt Across the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Investment_U
Dr. Mark Skousen writes: The Obamas’ pet is a Portuguese water dog named Bo.
But President Obama likes another dog a lot more.
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Sunday, October 24, 2010
It's the Money Stupid / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Joseph_Russo
Dazed and Confused - Why did the stock market crash in 2002, and then again in 2008? Why has the value of real estate declined so much since 2007? What has happened to the economy? Why do stocks continue to soar in the aftermath? Why does Gold suddenly cost over $1300 an ounce? Why can't we get a loan? Have we hit bottom yet?
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Flight From Safety of U.S. Treasury Bonds into Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Steven_Vincent
Although the current market dialogue between Bulls and Bears is focused on the Inflation vs. Deflation dichotomy, it's possible that a dynamic between Risk vs. Safety is the better framework for analysis.
The possible transition from Safety to Risk took a big leap forward recently as the most favored repository of investor fears, the US Treasury market, showed significant signs of breaking down and putting in a long term top. SPX:USB, the ratio of Risk to Safety as measured by the S&P 500 / US Treasury 30 Year Bond price, closed well above its 200 day EMA after having broken out of a declining wedge pattern. After the breakout the EMA was successfully retested:
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Saturday, October 23, 2010
More Signs of a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
As Freddie Mac Reports An Uptick In The 30 Year Mortgage Rate, Have Mortgage Rates Hit A Floor?
(ZeroHedge) Is the floor in mortgage rates in? After hitting a record all time low of 4.19% in the week ended October 14, the Freddie 30 Year Fixed mortgage rate has risen slightly but appreciatively to 4.21% (chart below). This is not all that surprising considering the 10 Year UST has been meandering around the 2.5% spot for a while now. What it does indicate, however, is that absent QE2 mortgages may have just hit their floor for the current regime. As it is no secret the Fed is intent on lowering mortgage rates as low as possible the question becomes whether a level in the low 4%'s is enough for mortgage activity to finally pick up.
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Saturday, October 23, 2010
America has Become an Asterisk, Which means it Only Exists Conditionally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
The conditions are explained by asterisks. For instance, big banks earn a lot of money as long as minor details like expenses, losses, and derivative valuations are ignored. The governments car company, GM, will soon release an 'electric' car that gets 280 miles per gallon equivalent. However, it is not really 'electric' as it has a small gasoline motor and at highway speed, the motor kicks in. In truth, it will return mileage equivalent to a Toyota Prius. Only, the US taxpayer will have to chip in about $7k per car sold to even make it seem competitive. It is ‘electric’ with an asterisk.