Category: Financial Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.
Monday, October 10, 2016
NFP, Wikileaks, falling momentum, slipping real estate…recipe for correction? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: John_Mesh
The rally in equities resumed for the UK's FTSE and three of the four Eastern indexes on our world watch list (the Shanghai Composite spent the week on holiday celebrating Chinese National Day). Japan's Nikkei was the top week-over-week performer, up 2.49% with Hong Kong's Hang Seng close behind at 2.38%. The US's S&P 500 was the laggard, down 0.67%, which snapped a three-week advance.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
The US Economy and Stock Market are in Trouble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
The US economy may be approaching its 28th consecutive quarter of growth from the end of the 2008-2009 recession, but all is not as it seems. Shadow Stats www.shadowstats.com shows that, because of changes to the way GDP is calculated dating back to the 1980s, the US economy, instead of growing since 2000, has largely been trapped in a series of rolling recessions. According to Shadow Stats, the US economy is in its 45th consecutive quarter of negative growth. Stagnant income growth largely benefitting the top 20% of the working population; the collapsing labour force participation rate that results in a gross understatement of the real unemployment rate; a large army of part-time workers; many not counted as a part of the labour force just because they have been out of work a year or longer and are no longer counted; half the working population earning less than $30,000 annually; millennials burdened with record student loans and unable to form households as they cannot find the jobs; and a retiring baby boomer workforce, many of them unprepared for retirement, are just some of the reasons the US economy continues to underperform even as officialdom touts growth.
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
TNX, USD and SPX Meet their Respective Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Bond yields spiked this morning in a retracement of the decline from the September 13 high in an 89.5% retracement to the 2-hour Cycle Top.
ZeroHedge comments, “"Soft" survey data from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
USD, Gold and USB are testing their Outer Limits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD came within a hair’s breadth of the upper Broadening Wedge trendline at 96.50 this morning, but now is beginning to sell off after reaching 96.39. Considering the corrective nature of the move, I did not expect the trendline to be broken. Nonetheless, I had monitored it for any unexpected outcome. A decline today beneath 95.26 may create a Bearish Engulfing Candle, which is a strong reversal pattern.
The moves being made here may have a pronounced effect on various markets, which we will discuss further down the page. The main effect of a declining USD may be the withdrawal of foreign investors from risk markets.
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Monday, October 03, 2016
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We continue to forecast a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.
Saturday, October 01, 2016
Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Commodites - It’s January 2013, With a Twist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be. The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*
So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view? Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Here’s Why You Should Be in Cash Right Now / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : People are seriously undereducated on the benefits of being in cash.
The cool thing about cash is that it doesn’t go down. You can’t lose money if you have cash—unless it gets stolen or your bank account gets hacked. We don't have negative rates in the US yet, so you can’t complain about that. If you have money in cash, you will earn zero.
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Stocks Commodities and FX Markets Waiting Technically While Fundamental Data Neutral Poised / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: John_Mesh
The benchmark S&P 500 gyrated at open, showed indecision during the first 90 minutes of trading and then rose to its 0.70% intraday high in the early afternoon. It then traded in a narrow range and closed with a slightly trimmed gain of 0.64%, reclaiming a bit over half the pre-debate selloff following last week's "no rate hike" rally. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.56%, down three basis points from the previous close. Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
The Free Market Always Prevails / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Michael_Pento
The global securities market got a surprise recently when U.S. core consumer price inflation crept up to 2.3% year over year in the month of August. This closely followed core measure, which strips out the more volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.3%; this was the biggest rise in core CPI since February.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Financial Markets and FX Setups 27th Sept / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Submissions
Joy Mesh writes: The analysis for markets and various inter connected price action which will allow our clients to be better placed. Major markets around the globe sold off yesterday. The source of the anxiety may have been the presidential debate. S&P 500 plunged at the open and, after a puny bounce, sold off to a narrow mid-afternoon trading range. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.59%, down three basis points from the previous close. Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Crude Oil, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We are forecasting a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows at the start of next year. WTI now appears to be forming a top, it would appear as though the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Warren Buffett Is the Latest Billionaire To Jump Ship From The Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
Right now the market is perceived to be so dangerous that it’s even chased the most fearless value investors to the sidelines.
Just this evening, in the Presidential debate, Trump warned that the stock market was a bubble “about to pop”.
Now, the bearish billionaire circle has grown even wider with the addition of Warren Buffett.
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Saturday, September 24, 2016
The Fed Decision / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at the September 21, 2016 FOMC meeting. The Fed felt things were balanced, and was looking for a pick up into the fourth quarter of 2016. The Fed also left open the possibility of a rate hike at the December FOMC. There were three Fed dissenters, the highest number since 2014. The BOJ also made an announcement to maintain its QE programs and do some switching of long maturities for short maturities (the BOJ’s version of Operation Twist?).
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Wednesday, September 21, 2016
The Fed Chickens Out / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX made a marginal new high this afternoon as the Fed “chickened out” on its rate decision.. This is one of the sloppiest Ending Diagonals I’ve seen in a while, but that appears to be the best fit. Wave [v] appears to be complete, so those who have stepped aside may re-engage their short positions.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
European banks may be more important than the Fed this week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It’s like déjà vu all over again. The SPX Premarket has tested the lower trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top, but pulled back.
ZeroHedge observes, “If yesterday one could "explain" the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday's muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck. Some have attributed the 0.4% rise in futures to the latest dip in the dollar, while a modest bond rally as the countdown to crucial policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve entered its final stretch, put taper tantrum concerns on hold if only for the time being.”
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Gold, Silver, Stocks and Bonds Grand Ascension or Great Collapse? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
It depends upon your perspective and the markets you follow …
Perspective:
- The global economy is drowning in debt – $230 Trillion and counting – that will not be repaid at current value. Expect hyperinflation or outright default.
- Negative Interest Rates on $13 Trillion in sovereign debt are a sign of failure by central banks, governments, and Keynesian economists.
- Pension plans and savers are hurt by low and negative interest rates. They have been sacrificed for the continued levitation in the stock and bond markets.
- All of the above indicate a correction and possible collapse are coming. Perhaps it began this month, September 2016.
- The charts of six markets tell the story.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Mass Psychology in Action; Instead of Selling Gilead it is Time to Take a Closer Look / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
"A little and a little, collected together, becomes a great deal; the heap in the barn consists of single grains, and drop and drop make the inundation." ~ Saadi
One should be wary of listening to individuals that claim to be experts especially if they are associated with big investment firms or popular media. In most instances, the word expert is the code word for jackass, and the word sell is the secret code word for buy, especially if these jackasses are the ones telling you to do so. Before we continue, let's examine the story below, and it clearly illustrates how those with the mass mindset sell when it is time to buy and buy when its time to sell.
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Saturday, September 17, 2016
Fed Huffing and Puffing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
Over the past few weeks a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have mused about an interest rate hike at the September FOMC that takes place next week, on September 20-21, 2016. The interest rate decision comes out around 2 p.m. on September 21. It will be a much-watched announcement. Stocks, bonds and precious metals markets all reacted negatively to the musings when the fourth Fed official (including Yellen) since August 2016 mused about a hike. Despite labour numbers that appear to point to decent economic growth and an inflation rate (PCE Inflation) that hovers below the Fed’s target of 2%, the overall picture is not one of economic strength, with many indicators and numbers actually pointed down.
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Stocks and Bonds - The Central Bankers' Experiment: The Great Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Doug_Wakefield
The public enthusiasm, which had been so long rising, could not resist a vision so splendid. At least three hundred thousand applications were made of the fifty thousand new shares, and Law's house in the Rue de Quincampoix was beset from morning to night by the eager applicants."
The quote above is from McKay's classic, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, found in the first chapter, "Money Mania – The Mississippi Scheme". The Mississippi Scheme reached its final "all time high" in January 1720, and Mackay wrote about this madness in 1841.
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