Category: Financial Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, April 12, 2018
Hot War and Cold Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is turning into a comedy. A black comedy, for sure, but still. As both the Skripal novichok ‘poisoning’ case in Britain and the ‘chemical attack’ in Douma, Syria fall flat on their faces on a total and absolute lack of evidence, it’s becoming clear that western ‘authorities’ are not at all planning to let go of the privilege that in times gone by allowed them to claim whatever they wanted and demand to be believed.
And despite the insane amounts of spying that underlies their business models and will lead to their demise(s), here is where social media do play a decisive role. See, if you’re an ‘authority’, there’s nothing you would rather do than to close down those social media that let people spread news that contradicts and/or doubts what you just said, and undermines that privilege. But that also would mean you can’t spy on them anymore through social media. A toss-up?!
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Saturday, April 07, 2018
As the Gold, Stocks, and Bond Markets Macro Turns… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:
Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro
- Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
- Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
- Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
Stocks, Gold and Commodities are Building a Base to Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Builderadv
....
Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Markets Could Rise on Commodity Prices in April / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Builderadv
Despite all the volatility during the first quarter, the first three months of 2018 stock markets correcting but recovering towards the fag-end. The Dow Industrials were the biggest losers with a quarterly drop of -2.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index lost only -1.2%. While the tech dominated Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3%. Small caps saw only a marginal loss (-.40%). The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) captures the entire stock market by size (large, small, and midsize) and by style (growth and value). And it lost only -.71% from the end of December to the end of March.
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Central Planners Hiding Inflation, Imposing Negative Real Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear from Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors. We’ll ask Frank about his outlook on gold during the remainder of 2018 and he’ll also tell us why we should be very leery of taking any financial advice from newly appointed Trump advisor Larry Kudlow. Don’t miss my conversation with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
As the first quarter of 2018 comes to an end, the gold market finds itself trading fairly close to where it began the year. Every time gold looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out, it gets pushed back into a stubbornly persistent trading range.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Minding the Trade Gap: Gold Breakout, EURUSD chaotic, USDJPY Continuation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Builderadv
Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., has dubbed this the “square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies”—it’s nearly impossible for a nation to close its trade deficit while widening its fiscal deficit and expecting consumers to keep spending. Ultimately, “fiscal policy will dominate trade policy,” Mr. Feroli said. “Tariffs and other trade restrictions will be insufficient to lean against the overwhelming force.”
Worsening the situation is the fact that U.S. tax revenue declined in February and government spending rose, as the share of wages withheld for taxes dipped as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress late last year.
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
SPX Wedge Breaks and Double Gaps: Capatulation but GOLD is Coiling for Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Submissions
Arb Cap writes: The stock market continued its correction lower with a sharp downmove the last nine days (12 to 22 March). The S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq 100 lost more than five percent, while the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 fell 3.76% and 2.77%, respectively. The Dow Industrials (red) was the first back to negative territory with a move below the zero line on Monday, while the S&P 500 (black) and S&P Mid-Cap 400 (blue) followed suit on Thursday. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 remain positive year-to-date.
Monday, March 19, 2018
Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…
Friday, March 09, 2018
The Last Great Myth of Every Financial Market Euphoria / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: EWI
See how financial markets are governed by waves of optimism and pessimism -- not cold reason
Beware of the "New Normal" in the Stock Market!
The January 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast put it this way:
After two decades of Mania Era asset bubbles and sentiment extremes, what now seems normal to many investors is actually highly abnormal.
That's right -- many investors no longer fear asset bubbles. That is why too many will be caught off-guard when the Mania Era inevitably ends.
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Saturday, February 17, 2018
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday).
As for the bigger macro indicators, the middle one, Amigo #2 (long-term interest rates) has that funny look on his face because he is bracing for something.
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Thursday, February 15, 2018
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
TNX futures are in focus this morning as yields creep ever higher. The overnight high was 29.44, and while the 150% Fib level is at 29.66. Since then it has pulled back, but there does not seem to be an end to higher rates, yet. There may possibly be one more probe higher to the top. Possible targets range from 30.18 to 31.36.
As Northman Trader pointed out yesterday, there is a Cup with Handle formation with the Lip at 27.00 that suggests a probable target for Wave 5 near 37.00. However, the Cycles Model suggests a probable retracement to the neckline may occur first.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Abalgorithm
The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX nearly did a 100% retracement to the August 2015 high as suggested last week. This week it pulled back to test the Cycle Top support/resistance at 22.31. It appears to have yet another surge higher in store for it. The Cycles Model has a triple indicator of a higher Wave (3) top in the next week.
(ZeroHedge Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs presciently published a note research report "VIX ETPs are now net short vega - should we worry".
.... which as the title suggested showed that the net position of VIX ETPs has become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight year history.
Thursday, February 08, 2018
Precious Metals, Stock Market, Volatility, and Bitcoin Price Predictions Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
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Wednesday, February 07, 2018
The “Free Lunch Trade” Market Bubble Has Burst… What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The markets just changed.
Few understand what happened to the financial system after 2008. What happened was that the debt based financial system began to implode as debt deflation took hold. The scary thing is that it wasn’t even a large amount of debt deflation.
Remember the 2008 Crisis? That time when everyone thought the world was literally going to end? It’s that small dip in the dotted line below:
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Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Abalgorithm
The wall street bear has woken up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its largest-ever, single-day point decline and major indexes in the U.S., Europe and Asia gave up their gains for the year.The Dow briefly dropped nearly 1,600 points. Although it quickly pared losses, the blue-chip index closed down 1,175.21 points, or 4.6%, to 24345.75, its largest one-day percentage decline since August 2011.
At the time of writing the futures were further down to 2550 from the close of 2639. That is an important level of support. However we expect it to be tested.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin's $20,000 bubble mania peak of Mid December that valued the crypto currency at $320 billion has long since been left in the dust as Bitcoin has crashed well below $10,000, wiping out $170 billion of the value of participants holdings. All whilst the crypto coin gamblers obsessed by all things block chain have largely remained in a state of denial, focused on bitcoin soaring to over $50,000 despite its real inverse trend trajectory as tends to happen at the end of market manias.
And so it has been the case since I published my opening Bitcoin forecast of the year over a month ago when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing towards $5,000, a forecast that was met with denial from many in the bitcoin community.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Submissions
B.R. HollisterI’ve spent over thirty years analyzing markets and have noticed an interesting correlation between the Wall St. Markets (stocks, interest rates) Gold (and the mining shares), the Dollar Index and Oil. In the charts below, I describe what I call “shadows” of the past and how they repeat certain patterns.
Right now I know that traders are concerned with rising interest rates, but at this point in the game I don’t think they matter too much, this is just a much needed 4-6% pull back in the stock market as we fall into the 20 week low. The problem with excessive over speculation should come home to roost especially as we come in to the latter half of the year. My read is that we may see a 20% bear market much like May-Oct 2011 or July-Oct 1998. Meanwhile, buying the dips should prove lucrative.
Friday, February 02, 2018
How to Trade the Stocks, Gold, Oil and Dollar Markets Next Week - Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
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