Category: Financial Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, October 05, 2018
SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.
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Thursday, September 27, 2018
US & Global Markets Internals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.
All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?
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Wednesday, September 26, 2018
The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Plunger
In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC). This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy.
The FED and central banks responded to the 2008 crisis by lowering rates to zero or less and injected trillions of credit into the system. Indeed, they were able to re-inflate the pre-crisis bubble and put the contraction on hold, but only at the price of corrupting the core of money and credit itself and their actions exasperated the gap between the haves and the have nots. QE in the end turned out simply to be monetary policy for the rich. The result has been to start a world wide populist movement causing outside political contenders to win elections.
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Sunday, September 23, 2018
US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The most recent leg of the US stock market rally and the bounces in global equities, commodities and precious metals are coming as part of an “anti-USD trade”. Certain US stock sectors, most global stock markets, commodities and precious metals were pressured by the USD rally that began in April and now, as the buck eases, a relief valve opens.
All charts below are as of Thursday’s close.
US – S&P 500
The S&P 500 – in essence a collection of sectors that are ‘pro’, ‘anti’ and ‘neutral’ the USD’s status – appears to be on the way to our target of 3000+, based on a conservative measurement of its daily chart pattern. This was the NFTRH alternate scenario after our expected summer drive to test the January top did not prove out a then favored view that the test would fail. As you can see, SPX broke out, dropped to test the breakout and off it goes. We have since been operating to the new favored plan.
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Wednesday, September 19, 2018
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX made its final high yesterday afternoon. The top-to-top time was 12.9 days, fitting my thesis that the impulsive decline and retracement fits in Cyclical time. This morning’s futures are lower, indicating that a new impulse may be underway, although it may remain shallow for the better part of the day. There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that, when triggered, may send the SPX beneath its smaller Broadening Wedge.
Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: James_Quinn
“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.” – John Hussman – May 2009
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Here Are Top Market Predictions from Camp Kotok / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: John_Mauldin
I’m back from Camp Kotok. As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening.This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There weren’t nearly as many bears as I expected. “Cautious optimism” seemed to be the theme.
That led me to refine my own views with a wide variety of participants. Today, I’ll do the same for you.
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Monday, August 27, 2018
What’s Next for Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Even though the 10 year – 3 month yield curve is the more useful & timely yield curve, the 10 year – 2 year yield curve is still the most popular yield curve. The 10 year – 2 year curve is almost inverted.
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Sunday, August 26, 2018
How The Credit Market Is Doing in 2018 / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2018
By: Dylan_Moran
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
Financial Markets Status: Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).
Precious Metals
Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).
This chart of gold (courtesy of Barchart.com) shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on.
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
Trade War to Continue, Global Debt Default & Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael describes two scenarios for the Fed that may BOTH result in a day of reckoning for the U.S. stock market, explains why he sees no end to the trade wars for at least several months, and also tells us what it will take to the get metals moving to the upside again. Don’t miss a jam-packed and terrific interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, gold and silver markets have been attempting a recovery rally this week, and this morning, they have gotten a little help from a weaker dollar.
The gold market traded above the $1,200 level a couple times this week, and as of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,207 an ounce -- up 1.9% for the week now thanks to a rally this morning. Meanwhile, silver has bounced up and down, but has made no real progress in the past week, trading at $14.87 as of this Friday morning recording, rallying today like gold but flat for the week overall.
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Friday, August 17, 2018
SPX Losing Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are losing yesterday’s gains as selling in the world markets returns. The index appears to be challenging Short-term support at 2835.51 at this time. This morning the SPX E-mini futures and options expire at the open. It is unusual to see the selling begin before expiration. As a result, this may cause more selling for the regular options that expire later today.
ZeroHedge reports, “A sense of "risk off" has returned to the the market, with 10Y yields sliding, the dollar rebounding from session lows and the Turkish Lira resuming its plunge, renewing concerns about emerging market contagion, leading to a "red return" across global market monitors, following yesterday's torrid surge in the S&P500.”
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Sunday, August 12, 2018
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has had a quiet week. However, the story is very different overseas, with emerging market currencies and stocks cratering.
Here’s MSCI’s emerging markets currency index.
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Saturday, July 28, 2018
Trading ANY Market, ANY Timeframe: How to Spot New Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
On July 31, you are invited for a rare, free opportunity to see for yourself how to use simple, everyday price charts to find reliable trade setups -- in any market and any timeframe.
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
Will The Impending US Economic Collapse Usher In Socialism? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Benjamin Franklin was purported to have said “that which hurts, also instructs.” Yet, society, as a whole, has a very short memory. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten.
We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression. While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience. Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Inflation or Deflation ? Market Drama and Suspense ! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The big question I’ve been grappling with recently is the inflation or deflation theme. Last Friday’s price action felt like a counterpunch to the deflation scenario as the US dollar fell pretty hard and interest rate reversed. It was almost exactly a year ago around at this time that we started to take some positions related to the inflationary scenario by buying some of the different commodities stocks like BHP, COPX, KOL, UWT, SCCO, SCHN and STLD. Many had broken out of large trading ranges and H&S bottoms. In January of this year when the US stock markets began our recent correction I went to 100% cash as I wanted to be safe than sorry. That was also about the time the US dollar began to find a possible bottom which had pretty much been in a free fall.
Lets start by looking at some US dollar charts as it will most likely be our guide in the inflation or deflation theme going forward. This first daily chart shows the US dollar initially bottoming in late January and then building out the five point rectangle reversal pattern that reversed the downtrend. After a strong impulse move up the US dollar began to correct that impulse leg by building out a rising wedge formation seven weeks ago. IMHO that seven week rising wedge is probably the most important chart pattern on the planet right now. Whichever way it breaks out will affect a lot of markets.
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Sunday, July 22, 2018
China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
It is not a war of guns and soldiers, but a war of finance.
The Trump White House is aggressively going after China on trade. Every other month we are seeing a new round of tariffs announced on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese exports.
China is retaliating by devaluing the Yuan against the US Dollar at a pace not seen since early 2016. In real terms, the 10% in tariffs the Trump administration will implement on Chinese goods has ALREADY been negated by China’s 14% Yuan devaluation.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Plunger
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment.
It’s time to sit up and pay attention to what Mr. Market is trying to tell us.
It appears we are at the top of the cycle, anecdotal evidence is now pouring in. But that is just a cyclical story. The bigger story is that major market forces that have been brewing in the system for 25-40 years are now coming to a head. They are now dovetailing with the cyclical turn and together they may cause a massive shift in the world’s economic structure which has been erected over these 25-40 years. Few can even imagine these changes let alone prepare themselves for them.
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Sunday, July 15, 2018
Stock Market vs. Gold, Long-term Treasury Yields, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve 3 Amigo's Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
You have better things to do than read droning macro analysis or long, drawn out investment theses. It is a weekend in the dead of summer and for that reason we go easy this week; real easy.
The 3 Amigos are here to simply say that things are as they have been, with Amigo #2 (long-term yields) getting home and pulling back on cue, and the other two (SPX/Gold ratio & Yield Curve) still in process and indicating risk ‘on’ and ‘boom on’, respectively.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Stock Market Window Dressing Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures went as high as 2737.00 (~2732.00 cash) this morning before pulling back. There is still a probability of the retracement rally probing the mid-Cycle resistance at 2742.03, which is an approximate 50% retracement of the decline. Thus far this quarter has seen nearly a 3% gain in the SPX and today would be an important window dressing day.
Wave [i] of 1 would be considered a Leading Diagonal, while Waves [iii] and [v] appear to be impulsive. There is a cluster of Cycle Pivots starting today and going through the weekend. The first Cycle Pivot occurs around 1:00 pm today.
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