Category: Financial Crisis 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: FXCOT
Brexit Woes
British Prime Minister Theresa May delayed a critical parliamentary vote on her proposal to leave the European Union, throwing both her government and her plans for the U.K.’s exit from the bloc into disarray. The big problem in brexit is ireland. Ireland is a EU member. Post Brexit, EU argues, that Ireland will be subject to EU rules while UK seeks assurances from them that a last-resort “backstop” guarantee that ensures no hard border appears between the Republic of Ireland and British-ruled Northern Ireland. But securing such a concession will be a challenge. So we are clearly moving towards a hard brexit and GBPUSD will fall from the current levels of 1.25. One of the best ways to take advantage of the brexit is via trading the GBPUSD via trade copier at fxcot.com
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Sunday, November 18, 2018
The Time to Prepare For the Next Financial Crisis is NOW / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Graham_Summers
Global growth is officially dead.
The markets picked up on this first, with Copper, Lumber, Industrial Metals and other economically sensitive asset classes collapsing starting in May.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Michael_Pento
The long-awaited dose of reality from the massive and unprecedented financialization of the global economy has finally begun.
Of course, those of us who understood from the start how healthy economies and markets naturally function, knew that a viable recovery from the fiscal and monetary excesses--which caused the great recession and financial crisis of 2008--was never underway. This is because central banks manipulated interest rates to zero percent and below and kept them at that level for a decade. Then, those same low rates engendered a humongous amount of new debt to be incurred, leading to the rebuilding of the current stock and real estate bubbles. And, it also created a tremendous and unprecedented bubble in the global fixed income market. This entire artificial construct, which was built upon bigger asset bubbles and greater debt loads, is now being tenuously held together by that very same government-engineered bond bubble.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A preface is required to explain that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for every grand financial crisis in the last 30 years, dating back to the Great Depression and its supposed spurious resolution to Black Monday of 1987. Little realized is that the ’87 crash was a direct result of the impact from outsourcing US industry, whose trend began in 1984 with Intel. The lost legitimate income had a grand effect on the inflows to the US Stock Market. Of course, the newly forming Reich Economic team preferred to describe it differently. The important outcome from the cleanup was the creation of multi-$trillion bank derivatives to serve as phony foundation for the entire Western banking system. Greenspan blessed it as good and firm, but now we know it was soft and weak. These derivatives are blowing up, which will require bailouts and a replacement in the Gold Standard. Instead, expect the derivatives to ramp up further with greater leverage up to the assured catastrophe. The fallout will be great.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
This Will Be the Mother of All Minsky Moments / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: John_Mauldin
We have all had the fun as kids of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic bucket and making sandpiles? Slowly pouring the sand into ever bigger piles, until one side of the pile starts to collapse?In his very important book Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchamane wrote about an experiment with sand that three physicists named Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Wiesenfeld conducted in 1987.
In their lab at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York, they started building sandpiles, piling up one grain of sand at a time. It’s a slow process, so they wrote a computer program to do it. Not as much fun but a whole lot faster.
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Monday, September 10, 2018
The Coming Global Liquidity Crisis…The Kick Off of the Post Bubble Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Plunger
We have seen how the PBC has now begun and is making itself felt around the world starting at the periphery of the global economy, next moving to the senior markets of the world and eventually being transmitted to the core of the financial system. As of now the US markets do not reflect any impact of the PBC, however there are signs it is fast approaching.
Tesla- Canary in the coal mine
So far US markets don’t seem to care what is happening in other markets around the world. US Markets seem impervious. A few months ago I pointed out that as long as Tesla stays elevated the US market should remain fine. Call Tesla the canary in the coal mine. Tesla continues to operate for one reason only- easy money. Remove the liquidly spigot and Tesla ceases to exist. This company is so obviously a fraud on stock holders, yet it whistles past the graveyard with each outrageous act of its “nut job” CEO. Simply put, as long as stock holders suspend reality in Tesla they are willing to believe anything.
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Monday, September 10, 2018
Lehman and Normalcy Bias / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Andy_Sutton
It is now September. The time of year that the fright forecasters live for. Their dispatches grow more and more desperate. Tragedy lies just on the horizon. ‘Buy our products now’ they say or ‘reap the whirlwind’. We are now just a few days from the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Weekend Extravaganza which was the official start date of what stuffed shirts in media and politics call the ‘Great Recession’.
On the US side of the Atlantic, the goings on since have edged people into what is called normalcy bias. How can that be you might ask; the Dow has quadrupled since 3/6/2009. That’s an average annual return over double the market’s average annual return over the prior 100 years. The sad thing is there is not a single average investor we know of who has seen their paper stocks quadruple in the last ten years. Those types of gains are reserved for hedge funds, and JP Morgan’s trading desk, not the average person. The idea that the playing field is level is so ludicrous it is actually funny.
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Sunday, September 02, 2018
Financial Markets Are Nearing the Line in the Sand / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Most of the classic technical indicators favor a continued rally in stocks into 2019.
And that’s still my preferred scenario for a final peak. One that happens in late 2019, coming off of this Trump rally that started in late 2016.
It could be near its peak growth rate after the 4.1% GDP report.
But it’s not likely to be sustainable for long given that we are running out of workers to rehire, and the real estate bubble seems to be finally be running out of steam due to such high prices making homes and rentals unaffordable.
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine?
This question is timely and worryingly justified in the context of the ongoing Fed’s tightening cycle and the ECB’s shy steps toward normalization of its monetary policy. Historically speaking, the Fed’s tightening used to end with some sort of market crisis, including U.S. recession and turbulences in the emerging markets which rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt (as a reminder, the dollar lending outside the U.S. stands at about $11 trillion today). As one can see in the chart below, practically all recessions in America occurred after the Fed’s tightening cycle.
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Friday, June 22, 2018
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a while since we’ve had a 3 Amigos update because a) Italy and global tariffs noise aside, nothing much has changed with the macro and b) I felt my ‘image-based metaphorical content to straight content’ ratio was getting a little excessive. So I gave it a rest.
Now it is time again for an update of these important macro riders in order to touch base with their signals. As always, I’ll remind you that there is much more to the macro market backdrop that NFTRH manages on an ongoing basis, but these three are important.
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Monday, June 04, 2018
Catalyst for the Next Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Michael_Pento
The cause of the Great Recession circa 2008 was collapsing home prices that led to an insolvent banking system. However, the next economic crisis will result from the bursting of the worldwide bond bubble and its devastating effect on asset prices.
One of the dangers from spiking borrowing costs is the shutting out of distressed corporations from capital markets, which will inhibit their ability to roll over and service existing debt. This will lead to a massive increase in the number of insolvent corporations.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland / Companies / Financial Crisis 2018
By: GoldCore
– Emergency cash offered by Ulster Bank as cash vanishes from accounts
– Bank makes €500 available to customers whose deposits vanish
– Bank investigates after hundreds of complaints on social media
– “My salary has disappeared from my account today and my wife had her card declined when trying to pay for a GP visit and medication”
– Cyber attacks and Brexit are biggest threats to the securities, insurance and banking sectors
– Exposes risks posed to cash deposits in age of hacking, cyber fraud and terrorism
– Conclusion: Take some of your savings and wealth off line?
Monday, April 16, 2018
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Michael_Pento
LIBOR, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, was the most important acronym most investors never heard of before 2008. However, it quickly became the most critical variable in markets leading up to the Great Recession.
What has now become clear is that we haven’t learned any lessons from the financial crisis except how to accumulate more debt and to artificially control markets more extensively. And, to conveniently try to sweep under the rug the very same warning signs that forebode the day of reckoning just over a decade ago.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Stock Market Elevated Risk Premia Suggests the Worst Yet to Come / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Builderadv
Stock markets ended very weak yesterday. Any ounces of bounce is sold as we saw yesterday. The economy per se is doing just about fine.
Home Prices: Rising at its fastest
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures the price of a typical single-family home in major metropolitan areas across the country, rose 6.2% in January, down slightly from a 6.3% year-over-year increase reported in December. The 10-city index gained 6% over the year, unchanged from the prior month. The 20-city index gained 6.4%, up slightly from 6.3% the previous month.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2018
By: GoldCore
Key Metric LIBOR OIS Signals Major Credit Concerns
– Widening of the spread between LIBOR OIS (overnight index swap) rate raises concerns
– Spread jumped to 9 year widest spread, rising to 54.6bps, most since May 2009.
– Libor recently moved to over 2% for first time since 2008
– Wider spread usually associated with heightened credit concerns
Friday, January 26, 2018
2018: Yearly Forecasts for Systemic Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The following Jackass forecasts listed within the article for this new year are fully consistent with the Hat Trick Letter analysis over the last few years. All are on the verge of occurrence. If even one quarter of these calls comes into reality, the world will become a better place. In the current year upon us, the following events will begin to take form in some path with recognized progress. The result will be truly frightening, as all known tenets are either swept aside or profoundly questioned. Many of the listed events have begun to take form with some initial progress. The magnificent event that occurred ten years ago has been called the Global Financial Crisis, centered and triggered by the Lehman Brothers failure as a firm. It was actually a suffocation event with killjob, whereby both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan bought several $billion in Lehman mortgage bonds and never paid for them, thereby killing Lehman from a very severe sudden liquidity drain. What happened in 2007 (initial bust symptoms) and 2008 (final crisis unfolding) was horrible and quite devastating. What comes in 2018 in the systemic breakdown and global crisis will be triple in magnitude of damage and triple in breadth with range of extended wreckage. This year will see sovereign bonds enter failure, in an unprecedented manner.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Why Banks Will Be Slammed In The Next Crisis—And That May Be Good News / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : While some banks are run by honest folk, others are almost indistinguishable from criminal organizations.
Bank scandals are nothing new in the US and elsewhere. Still, those banks may be one of the best investment opportunities of your life. Sounds contradictory, but it’s not.
Before I explain why banks are such a good investment opportunity, let me go over a few examples from the last decade to provide some context for this trade.
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