Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Near December 21, 2018, our research team began a series of posts indicating the US Major Indexes should be set up for the “Ultimate Bottom” low that we suggested would take place after the US Elections (November 2018) and which would launch an upside price rally. Today, we are writing to announce that the first leg of this upside move appears to be nearly completed.
It is critical to mention here that as of only a day go the short-term market trend from a technical standpoint has turned up. So, getting long before this point would be trying to catch a bottom which is tough and risky to do. The good news is that we are expecting a second leg higher after we get some rotation to the downside.
Using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system, we can see that the current prices of the ES and NQ are very near to the immediate Fibonacci Price Target Zone. You will see from the following charts that both the ES and NQ are already within this zone and/or very near to what we believe will be immediate resistance. This means we should expect a bit of price rotation near these levels before another upside leg takes place driving prices higher.
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
Stock Market Rig is Ending… Next Leg Down is About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This week is options expiration week… Wall Street’s favorite time to ramp the markets in order to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.
THIS, nothing else, is why the markets rallied this week. Tweets from the President or some statement by a Fed official were simply the excuse Wall Street used to engage in this game.
And that game is now ending. Stocks face TREMENDOUS overhead resistance here.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2019
What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has done well throughout the first half of January 2019. With earnings season just ahead and the stock market under its 200 day moving average, the high probability of a pullback/retest remains.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd. is issuing new analysis which indicates the US and global markets may be poised for a dramatic upside price swing over the next couple. Recent events have driven asset class values to new valuations that may change the dynamics of markets for a few months. Prior to August/September 2018, many traders were fearful of the expectations of the US Federal Reserve, Global Trade Issues and the US Elections. Combine this with the end of the year liquidity issues and the threat of a US government shutdown over the wall funding and we have almost a perfect storm brewing for uncertainty and fear.
Monday, January 14, 2019
S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Stocks were little changed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. Will the short-term uptrend continue? Or is this still just an upward correction before another leg lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advance. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. It continued its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58 recently. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got very close to 2,600 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.
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Sunday, January 13, 2019
Stock Market Looking Toppy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Wednesday, January 09, 2019
Warning: This Stock Market Rig is Going to End Terribly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This is getting old.
The PPT is now juicing Oil higher, because doing so relieves stress in the junk bond market (a large percentage of junk bond issuers are shale companies that require higher Oil prices to be profitable).
This, in turn, is sending a “all clear” signal to stocks, inducing algos to buy indiscriminately.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
How to Spot A Tradable Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you are a long-term investor, swing trader, or day trader, then you could find one or all of the charts below interesting. What I am going to briefly cover and show you could make you think twice about how you are investing and trading your money.
I will be the first to admit you should not, and cannot, always pick market tops or bottoms, but there are certain times when it’s worth betting on one.
Below I have shared three charts, each with a different time frame using daily, 30 minutes, and a 10-minute chart. Each chart also has a different technical analysis technique and strategy applied.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Breadth is Very Strong While Stocks are Surging. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the S&P 500 makes a sharp upwards reversal towards its 38.2% fibonacci retracement, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is surging and risk-off assets (USD) are falling.
This combination of extremely strong breadth and a decline in risk-off assets often leads to short term weakness before a bigger medium term rally, but sometimes was a part of V-shaped recoveries. Moral of the story: focus on the medium term instead of the short term. Although V-shaped recoveries are unlikely, there are not impossible.
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Stocks Rallied Again, Still Just an Upward Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Friday following better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just a quick upward correction before another leg lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 3.3-4.3% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The S&P 500 index extended its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. It traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got back above 2,500 mark on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.3%.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,530-2,550, marked by some previous fluctuations. The resistance level is also at 2,570-2,600. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,500, and the next support level remains at 2,450-2,475, marked by some recent local lows.
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Sunday, January 06, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Still on Track / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, January 06, 2019
Market Volatility Skyrocketing, Trump & Pelosi Spar / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are off to a strong start in 2019. Gold and silver both closed Thursday at multi-month highs as the stock market reversed sharply to the downside.
Investors were disappointed by manufacturing data showing a slowdown in industrial output. They dumped economically sensitive stocks and bid the U.S. dollar lower on foreign currency exchanges. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to pause its rate hiking campaign and possibly even begin cutting rates later this year.
The weaker dollar helped boost crude oil and precious metals prices. The energy and mining sectors are among the only gainers in the stock market. The HUI gold miners index closed at a 5-month high on Thursday.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
The Last Time the Yield Curve Inverted, Stocks Soared 30%! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve.They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. Even a fully inverted yield curve—which is not yet—isn’t saying recession is imminent.
What we see now is really more of a flattened yield curve. It has a smaller but still positive spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.
That’s not normal, but it’s also not a recession guarantee. However, when we combine this with other threats, it adds to the concerns.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
While the U.S. stock market has been trending downwards from December 2018 – present, safe havens (e.g. gold and Yen) have been going up.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Stock Market Invstors Be Careful Going Into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the start of a new year, some of these market studies are going to look at the stock market in 2018 and see what that implies for 2019.
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Thursday, January 03, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market Bounce Was a Head Fake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.
That reset will crash stocks.
We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2019
Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the end of 2018 and have recently witnessed an incredible price rotation in the US stock market, it is time for traders to take stock of the incredible opportunities that are set up for early 2019 and beyond. Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, has put together some truly incredible longer-term Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system charts that will help you understand and identify incredible opportunities that should play out in early 2019. We know you will not find this type of analysis anywhere else on the planet and we know just how valuable these charts are too skilled traders. So, get ready for some incredible moves – as impossible as they may seem.
Let’s get started with Crude Oil. This Monthly chart of Crude showing our ADL price modeling system is clearly indicating the first few months of 2019 will include increased price volatility. One thing to pay attention to as we review these charts are the BLUE TRIANGLES, which is where we asked the ADL predictive modeling system for a detailed analysis, and the CYAN, YELLOW, and WHITE DASHED LINES, which is where the ADL system is showing us the highest probability price outcome into the future. On this chart, we can see that the predicted price levels of the past have been relatively close to where the price has closed on each monthly price bar. Going into the future, we can see 3~4 months of price volatility between $50 and $65 (roughly) with rotating higher/lower price objectives. We interpret this as greatly increased price volatility with the potential of supply events disrupting global expectations in oil. These could be intermediate-term price rotations that keep the price within our $50~65 price range, or they could be large range, very dramatic price rotations as a result of massive global supply events.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2019
What Will the Stock Market do in 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
What will the U.S. stock market do in 2019? It depends on who you ask.
- Wall Street analysts are generally bullish. The average analysts’ year-end 2019 prediction is 3000 for the S&P. Analysts have a bullish bias.
- The media is bearish (again), as they are every year. The media (financial media, social media, bloggers) have a bearish bias because bad news sells. It’s in their interest to sensationalize everything and scare the crap out of you. Scary headlines = more attention & ad revenue.
But as always, here at Bull Markets we try to follow the data and remain as objective as possible. We don’t always get it right, but following the data = a much better success % vs. random guessing.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 31, 2018
The Stock Market Made a Sharp Reversal Last Week. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is making an oversold bounce right now, and is stuck at its fibonacci retracement (23.6%). The standard target for a bounce is 38.2% – 50%
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