Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 14, 2019
3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
In World War II, Nobel laureate Ken Arrow was assigned a team of statisticians to make long-range weather forecasts.
These people were some of the biggest math geniuses on the planet.
And yet, Arrow and his team soon realized that their forecasts were no better than a blind guess.
Seeing no value in their models, the team asked to be relieved of the duty.
The superiors replied: “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”
This story holds an important lesson about investing.
Thursday, February 14, 2019
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Question: Plunger you keep insisting that we are in a bear market. Really? The averages have done nothing but go straight up since December 24th. At this rate we will be at new highs within a month. I thought prices go down in a bear market! That’s not happening.
Answer: The most reliable method of forecasting the eventual outcome of the market over the past 118 years has been Dow’s Theory. It has withstood the test of time. It is not a short term predictor, instead it has been likened to a weather barometer. An instrument that forecasts changes in business conditions and market cycles. It is not useful in predicting short term fluctuations just like a weather barometer shouldn’t be used to forecast the amount of rain or snow to fall in an upcoming storm.
It is my contention that if one gets the big cycles right he has enabled the basic setup for success in the market. If you don’t understand the cycle and position yourself wrong in it, good luck trying to make money. So we stick to Dow Theory, it has proven to work in the past under all market conditions. What it says now is a bear market was triggered on December 14th 2019 which began on October 3rd 2019. The present 8 week rally is a secondary reaction which remains uncorrected. All rallies are corrected. We must be patient and observe the price action of the upcoming correction. In order to reverse the downward primary trend, the Dow and Transports must complete a downside correction of the existing rally then rally back above today’s present reaction high.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
In a rally with no pullbacks, the S&P 500 has finally closed above its 200 day moving average (slightly).
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Powell's Interest Rate Hikes Pause Won’t Save Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Jerome Powell threw Wall Street a lifeline recently when he decided to temporarily take a pause with the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. The Fed Head also indicated that the process of credit destruction, known as Quantitative Tightening, may soon be brought to an end. This move towards donning a dovish plume caused the total value of equities to soar back to a level that is now 137% of GDP. For some context, that valuation is over 30 percentage points higher than it was at the start of Great Recession and over 90 percentage points greater than 1985. So, the salient question for investors is: will a slightly dovish FOMC be enough to support the massively overvalued market?
The S&P 500 is now trading at over 16x forward earnings. But the growth rate of that earnings will plunge from over 20% last year to a minus 0.8% in Q1 of this year, according to FACTSET. It might have made sense to pay 19x earnings back in 2018 because it was justified by a commensurate rate of earnings growth. But only a fool would pay 16x or 17x earnings if growth is actually negative?
The only reason why that would make sense is if investors were convinced EPS growth was about to soar back towards the unusually-strong rate of growth enjoyed last year. And for that to be the case several stars have to align perfectly.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following Thursday's decline and a short-term profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index got closer to the 2,700 mark again last week. So is this just a downward correction or some new downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the Thursday's decline. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation two weeks ago and it continued higher. The market got above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88), but then it retraced some of the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,720-2,725, marked by Thursday's daily gap down of 2,719.32-2,724.15. The resistance level is also at 2,740, marked by the local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stock Market Headwind of Fib Resistance Versus Tailwind of Fed-Speak: Which Will Win Out This Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In last weekend's article, we focused on the relentlessly advancing S&P 500 (SPX) from its December 26 low at 2346.58 into an important Fibonacci price and time resistance zone at 2713.70 on January 31.
The 2713.70 level represented a 62% SPX recovery of the entire September-December decline, while January 31 represented day number 89 since the September 2018 all-time high, and the day that the December-January recovery rally time period equaled 38% of the overarching total timeframe from the September high.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
SPY : More Volatility to Come Due to the Market’s Nature / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Our observations of the ETF, SPY, on the monthly chart have us expecting a spike in Volatility. The inherent bullish nature of the Market calls for advances (motive waves) as trends and pullback (corrective waves) as countertrend. To add to that nature, Elliott Wave Theory always suggests one of the 3 motive waves within an advance will be extended. The strongest advance is most often the 3rd wave. SPY has traced out a very strong move since lows of 2009. Due to that extension it’s hard to find technical support to call for another similar rally.
In the monthly chart of SPY below the early stages of the advance from 2009 show what can be an Elliott wave “nest” as labeled I-II in red, then ((1)) –((2)) in black. Nested labeling is quite common at the start of very powerful impulsive motive waves.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stock Market Top Has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last time I wrote, I thought a major stock market top was at hand. As it turned out I was early in my prediction. It looks as though Feb 5/6 is the long awaited B wave top. The chart below predicts SPX 2719 early Monday, followed by 2668 Tuesday and the 2510’s by Feb 19.Overall, I expect a repeat of Oct 1/3-Dec 24 from Feb 6- April 26 down into the SPX 2100’s. Late April into early June should see Wave A, Wave B into late August and then a final C Wave top in early October. It would not surprise me to see 3100 by early October 2019. The drop that follows into 2020 should be larger than the current one.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Stock Market Correction Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Correction starting?
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Friday, February 08, 2019
A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the bull market and economic expansion ages, the current economic expansion is soon going to be tied for the longest economic expansion in history. Of course economic expansions and bull markets don’t die of old age – they die when leading economic indicators deteriorate significantly.
We are seeing signs of deterioration now, but they are not significant yet.
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Thursday, February 07, 2019
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Quick Correction Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly retraced their recent advance yesterday, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index remained above the 61.8% retracement of its September-December sell-off. Is this a topping pattern or just a correction within the uptrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.4% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors took short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday a week ago and it continued higher. The market is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 390 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 200 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,750-2,760, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,800, marked by the early December local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.
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Thursday, February 07, 2019
The Global Economy Has Run Off a Cliff… and the Stock Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks continue to live in la la land.
While the media and investment herd celebrate a V-shaped stock recovery based on the Fed admitting things are far worse than previously known, more and more signals are appearing that the global economy has run off a cliff.
Germany and France are bordering on recession. Italy is definitively already in recession. Japan is on the verge of another contraction. And China is facing a systemic collapse (real GDP growth is 2%, not the ridiculous 6% they claim).
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Tuesday, February 05, 2019
This Stock Market Rally is Crazy, It Can’t Keep Going On! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is now almost at its 200 day moving average. After a very rapid decline in December 2018, the stock market is making an equally rapid rally right now. Extremes happen in both directions.
This has been a V shaped recovery.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stocks Going Sideways, Flat Correction or Some Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index remained above the 2,700 mark. So will the uptrend continue? Or is this a topping pattern ahead of a downward reversal?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.3% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. So volatility was relatively small despite the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday and it continued slightly higher in the late last week. The market is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 370 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 235 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,710-2,720, marked by the mentioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday's daily high. The resistance level is also at 2,750-2,760. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,650, marked by the recent fluctuations. The support level is also at 2,615-2,625, marked by the short-term local lows.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Fib Resistance Warning to Err on Side of Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 (SPX) is right at a price zone pointing more towards a meaningful give-back in the short-term.
This zone of resistance can be viewed through the Fibonacci price and time relationships on the daily SPX chart.
As the chart shows, as of Friday's close, the SPX resided approximately 16% above its late December lows, amounting to an exact 62% Fibonacci recovery of the entire prior decline from the Sep 21 all-time-high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, February 03, 2019
Is the Stock Market Ever Going to Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
By now everyone is aware that these “crash & rally” patterns are usually followed by a pullback or retest. Most of these pullbacks/retests occur once the S&P has reached its 50% retracement. But with the S&P now having retraced 60% of its Q4 2018 decline, many traders are doubting whether or not the S&P will pullback/retest at all, or if it’s going straight to new all time highs.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
US Stock Market Recovery Hinges On The Next Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The research team, at The Technical Trades Ltd., has been calling this market move quite accurately. We made predictions on September 17, 2018, that called for a -5~8% downside market rotation, followed by price support just before the November 2018 US elections. After that, we called for a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation to setup followed by a strong price rally. Even though we under-estimated the ultimate low-price rotation which was much deeper, our trend predictions from 120 days earlier are playing out quite accurately.
Currently, we are writing this message to all our followers to inform them that the Feb 1 Jobs report, as well as other critical earnings and economic data, are the “unknown factors” that have stalled this upside market move. At this time, it is our belief that capital has already started re-entering the US stock market and that a good portion of these investors are waiting for further evidence that a resurgence of price appreciation will continue without any new crisis events unfolding. Our September 17, 2018 analysis suggested that the US markets would find support after a “revaluation event” and continue an upward price bias. As this point, we believe we have reached the “momentum launchpad”.
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Thursday, January 31, 2019
The Macro Economy is Weakening. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Not much has changed with the S&P 500 hovering around its 50% retracement. We will have a flood of macro data over the next few weeks to digest now that the government shutdown is over. This is very important when it comes to understanding whether or not this bull market will have 1 last leg up or not.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Will Stocks Go Nowhere Over the Next 10 Years? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has held up well during this earnings season. Now that earnings season is over, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. Overall, the statistical evidence for a pullback/retest remains strong and convincing.
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