Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 23, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne's pre-election bribes budget apparently just did not live upto voter expectations as £3k bunged to first time buyers and £200 to basic rate savers amongst several smaller bribe was just not enough, either that or voters were spooked by the OBR bureaucrats savaging of the budget that implied a roller coaster ride of first severe austerity cuts of £65 billion per year, followed by a pre-election spending spree towards the end of the parliament.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Help to Buy ISA 25% Government Home Buying Deposit Top Up UK House Prices Mega-Boost / ElectionOracle / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne's Budget 2015 contained the latest boost to UK house prices in the form of the Help to Buy ISA (savings account), that for every £200 saved will have £50 added to by the government i.e. a 25% government house buying deposit subsidy that currently converts into a maximum of £3,000 per prospective home buyer (£12k total deposit) that I am sure will be raised annually, and which for couples implies an current £6k subsidy.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
George Osborne Budget 2015 Election Bribes - Buying Votes with Borrowed Money / ElectionOracle / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With the election just 50 days away, to imagine that George Osborne would not attempt to bribe the electorate today is delusional and so George Osborne huffed and puffed of how he has managed to find an extra £6-£7 billion behind the sofa to give away to the grateful masses. Those that say that pre-election budgets don't matter, well that may usually be the case but not this time as, as few as a 10 seat swing from Labour to Conservative could make all the difference between which party forms the next government. So THIS pre-election budget definitely DOES matter!
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Sky News Tory Election Bias - Will Adam Boulton Lose the Plot Again? / ElectionOracle / Propaganda
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sky News, the Murdoch owned Britain's version of Fox News revealed its true colours during and immediately after the 2010 General Election as its presenters became increasingly desperate in their attempts to steer the post election agenda towards a Conservative LIb-Dem Coalition as opposed to the then possibility of an Labour Lib-Dem Coalition.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is one unique thing about the Labour party that stands out more than anything else, which is that the Labour party with its block votes system that heavily dilutes party member votes to just 1/3rd representation, is usually hell bent on choosing as leader the least electable in terms of prime ministerial material that they can find. Against the 1980's Iron Lady Labour first had the hard to understand what he was talking about Michael Foot, soon followed by 'Were All Right' Kinnock, and then looked set to be destined for another failure under John Smith, election defeat only averted by his untimely death which prompted a battle between Tory Blair and Gordon Brown, luckily for Labour Tory Blair won and so did Labour for the next 3 elections in a row!
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Osborne Budget 2015 New Annuities Pensioner Election Bribe Targets 5 Million Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last years budget announcement of pensions freedom from April 2015, that will allow pension fund holders to cash in all or part of their pension pots for a lump sum rather than being forced to buy an annuity is now being extended just in time for the election to all of the existing 5 million annuity holders from April 2016, who should the Conservatives win the election will also be able to cash in their annuities.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hung Parliament is NOT a Certainty!
Opinion polls obsessed journalists are continuously number crunching each weeks polls into seats per party election forecasts that are then liberally regurgitated across the mainstream media. That latest such analysis is signaling that Labour has lost its most seats lead of only a week ago as now the Conservatives are being forecast to form the largest party in another hung parliament. However, in terms of extrapolating the polling trends into election day then the consensus view for another hung parliament can no longer be certain, as the polling trend implies that the Conservatives could win an outright election victory as my original analysis of over a year ago concluded (30th Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015).
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Wednesday, March 11, 2015
General Election Forecast 2015 Stealth Economic Boom - Why Opinion Polls are WRONG! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Opinion polls for the past month and earlier have consistently been putting Labour ahead by 1% - 2% which converts to Labour being the largest party in an hung parliament and therefore most likely to form the next government as indicated by a plethora of election forecasting sites such as electoralcalculus.co.uk which currently puts Labour on 298 seats to Conservatives on 267 (9th March 2015), or the New Statesman's May2015.com that puts Labour on 283 seats against Conservatives on 255 (5th March 2015).
Sunday, March 08, 2015
Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Poll after poll indicates that the Labour party faces a blood bath in Scotland that could result in the loss of as many as 40 of its 41 Scottish seats and thus making a Labour majority government impossible, that coupled with the Liberal Democrats national meltdown could result in the SNP increasing their seats tally from the current 6 to as many as 57 thus replacing the Liberal Democrats as Britain's third largest party.
Saturday, March 07, 2015
Immigration Crisis General Election 2015, Voters Punish Conservatives and Labour with Another Hung Parliament / ElectionOracle / Immigration
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A study by the University of Oxford concludes that England's migrant population has increased by 565,000 over the past 3 years of which 2/3rds are from the EU. However, in my opinion Oxford University grossly under estimates the number of immigrants as illustrated by the most recent ONS statistics which show a near 300,000 net migration to the UK over just one year, where the total over the past 3 years is near 750,000. So in reality the probable actual increase in migrant population of England and Wales is likely to be about 1/3rd higher than the Oxford University guesstimate.
Friday, March 06, 2015
Cameron Fears Debates Would Cost Tories the Election - Potential 12 Seat Swing to Labour / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mainstream media pundits and opposition politicians are in near unison uproar at David Cameron's tactics at avoiding any debate let alone the 3 planned for debates including two one on one between David Cameron and Ed Milliband that appeared certain of taking place only a couple of weeks ago, but now an apparently cowardly David Cameron has made it clear that there is no chance of any head to head debate with Ed Milliband before election day.
Friday, March 06, 2015
UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Conservative party election bribe is for 200,000 starter homes to be built and sold at a deep 20% discount of market value which translates into an potential bribe of as much as £90,000 per home buying couple! Therefore targeting a potential of 400,000 voters, enough to tip a handful of marginal seats in the Tories favour.
Thursday, March 05, 2015
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Answering who will win the 2015 UK General Election.
Find out what the impact will be of the SNP insurgency determined to disintegrate the United Kingdom, Liberal Democrats meltdown following betray of solemn pledges (tuition fees), UKIP profiting from continuing out of control immigration, unemployment falling to a 6 year low, and the housing market sentiment driven mini-economic boom as this analysis concludes in a detailed UK general election seats per party forecast including who will form the next UK government.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from Part 1 (UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others) that forecast the probable seats for the UK's minor parties. This article (Part 2) concludes by forecasting the probable seats for the Labour and Conservative parties, and which is most likely to form the next government.
UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015
A recently published report by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election result.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's political parties are all ramping their frenzy of activity in the run up to the May 7th General Election with a string of bribes being announced virtually every other day as the parties fire their free money missiles at targeted potential voters, such as the Tories bribing pensioners with a interest rate busting 4% NS&I £15k bond at a subsidised cost to the tax payer of at least £1.2 billion. Whilst the opposition Labour party firing back by aiming at student voters with the announcement of a £10 billion bribe to cut tuition fees for £9k to £6k per year AND to bung students an extra £400 annual allowance, a tuition fees promise that Labour will likely break just as they had broken their 1997 promise NOT to introduce tuition fees in the first place which Labour subsequently did.
Friday, February 27, 2015
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For Britain the most critical economic driver, far beyond interest rates, inflation, or even unemployment is the trend in average house prices for the fundamental reason that positive housing market SENTIMENT IS that which makes the all difference between the UK economy being in recession or in an common boom, as you don't tend to get one without the other. Which any government of the day fully realises and why the Coalition government has literally bent over backwards to first ignite and then to target maintaining a house prices bull market right into the May 2015 General Election through a myriad of tax payer funded schemes such as ZERO interest rates, the Help to Buy Scheme, Stamp duty cut and a continuous flood of liquidity forcing savers to spend or invest depreciating value of bank deposits into primarily bricks and mortar as I have covered at length for several years -
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Will Conservatives Out of Control Immigration Crisis Boost UKIP Election 2015 Prospects? / ElectionOracle / Immigration
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest immigration statistics out of the ONS once more illustrate the magnitude of the ConDem Coalition governments failure to control immigration where to all intents and purposes the past 5 years have just marked a continuation of the Labour catastrophe that set in motion a mega-trend for a 15 year long surge in net immigration of well over over 3 million people, where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour.
The facts to date illustrate that David Cameron just CANNOT be trusted on immigration, for his party in government has repeatedly FAILED in virtually EVERY IMMIGRATION PROMISE made as when David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration towards the end of the parliament to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration has continued to SOAR to a level far higher level even than in 2010 to now stand at 298,000, near 1/3rd higher.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If the opinion polls are to believed then the Liberal Democrats are literally facing an election blood bath, a wipeout that could see the Lib-Dems lose more than half their MP's, falling from a major third party coalition forming tally of 56 ( already having lost 1 MP along the way) to as few as just 20 as according to Lord Ashcroft's detailed constituency level polling, and no more than 26 according to the current most favourable projections which would mean no more limousine rides for Nick Clegg & co!
Friday, February 20, 2015
UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A report published by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election.
Monday, February 16, 2015
SNP-Syriza Labour Coalition Government Election Catastrophe, Debt Binge Before Breakup / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last September the UK had a close call with catastrophe as the tunnel vision SNP failed in their efforts for UK disintegration that would have resulted in a catastrophic breakup of Britain and far worse for Scotland that would literally have started to unravel politically, economically and socially as Scotland itself would soon start to disintegrate as I warned in the run up to the referendum vote. Of course Scotland voted NO, for most Scots are not insane, though succeeded in having the fools in Westminister conned into making promises to increase the annual bribe to Scotland from mostly English tax payers.