Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Even The Good Economic Numbers Are Bad / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
US factory orders tanked again this morning, and were generally reported that way at first. To take just a few of the low-lights:
- Factory orders have declined in eight of the last nine months.
- Orders for transportation equipment fell 2.4 percent while orders for computers and consumer goods-related equipment also fell by varying amounts.
- Last month’s durable goods orders were revised to -0.3% from the original +1%.
- Business inventories remain at near-record high levels.
Monday, June 01, 2015
The Meaning of Financial Repression / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mark_Thornton
Mark Thornton writes: We live in a world of massive monetary inflation and extremely low interest rates. Mortgage rates are near historic lows and yet it seems that people cannot get loans. Home sales are up, but with a near record percentage of sales made with cash, rather than a mortgage. The unemployment rate is nearing “full employment” and yet a record number of people do not have jobs.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
A quick review for newer subscribers: In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry. After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator. The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Austerity, Economics and Religion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There are many things going on in the Greece vs Institutions+Germany negotiations, and many more on the fringe of the talks, with opinions being vented left and right, not least of all in the media, often driven more by a particular agenda than by facts or know-how.
What most fail to acknowledge is to what extent the position of the creditor institutions is powered by economic religion, and that is a shame, because it makes it very difficult for the average reader and viewer to understand what happens, and why.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Bad News For China: Bernanke Says It’s Okay / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will be remembered by future generations as the guy who didn’t see a housing bubble while he was creating it.
That is, unless he says something even dumber, like this:
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Don't Drown in the Sea of Global Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes: Debt is the proverbial double-edged sword, offering access to costly assets, but sometimes driving overleveraged borrowers into bankruptcy.
Only politicians and some Keynesian economists could convince themselves – along with a good portion of the masses – that more debt is the solution to the world's already crushing levels.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Why Economic Growth Is Impossible / Economics / Economic Theory
By: BATR
The quandary of the economic dilemma continues. A globe suffering from a deflationary financial impact, while consumer prices rise well above the reported cost of living increases, does not bode well that prospects of commercial growth can rescue the world economy. What changes can overcome this predicament? Well, some academic scholar’s offers serious concern that a long term rebound towards prosperity is no longer possible.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: I’m not much for glossing over the true state of affairs just to make things look better, which is why I take issue with many government reports.
When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.
Monday, May 25, 2015
Into the Breach / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recently, I thought it would be fun to upgrade the turbo charger on my old car. No real good reason, other than it would be free (it was given to me) and interesting. It’s a very light car that feels like a little rocket (when it works)--a guilty pleasure.
One thing I hadn’t anticipated was the need for higher quality intake hoses to manage the extra air flow and exhaust heat. Over and over, I keep blowing hose connections. While the car still drives during periods, there is barely any power at all.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The rule of law subjects the State to a fixed set of rules that limits the scope of its coercive powers. Individuals and their property are protected from the arbitrary, ad hoc actions of the State and other individuals. In consequence, individuals can plan their activities within the confines of known, fixed “rules of the game.” This allows people to pursue their personal ends, as long as their actions do not infringe on the broadly-defined property rights of their fellow citizens.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Government Regulation and Economic Stagnation / Economics / Market Regulation
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: One of the more interesting economic debates in the past couple of decades is why the economy is slowing down.
Since 2000, per capita GDP growth in the US has been 0.9 percent per year, compared to 2.3 percent per year in the previous fifty years. This is a big difference: at 2.3 percent growth we double in wealth every generation. At 0.9 percent it takes us close to a century to double. So why the slowdown?
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Wednesday, May 20, 2015
UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
DEFLATION! The mainstream broadcast press appears to have swallowed the Bank of England's deflation economic propaganda hook line and sinker as they regurgitate the dangers of deflation following release of UK CPI inflation for April of -0.1% prompting headline grabbing warnings of the dangers of falling prices, the dangers of debt not being eroded by inflation, the dangers of people not spending as they wait for prices to fall, the dangers of ... you get the picture as the Bank of England sets the scene for their very own 007 Mark Carney to come to Britain's rescue with his magic PPK INFLATION gun, by promising that the Bank of England will keep price stability by aiming to bring the official CPI inflation rate back to 2%, and thus 007 Mark Carney saves Britain from the Spectre of Deflation.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
No Money, No Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Last August, the US Fed stopped creating new currency out of thin air and dumping it into the banking system. Which is another way of saying the US money supply stopped growing. Here’s the adjusted monetary base — a proxy for the amount of new currency the Fed is creating — over the past eight months:
Friday, May 15, 2015
How GDP Metrics Distort Our View of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MISES
Chris Casey writes:
GDP purports to measure economic activity while largely divorcing itself from the quality, profitability, depth, breadth, improvement, advancement, and rationalization of goods and services provided.
For example, even if a ship — built at great expense — cruised without passengers, fished without success, or ferried without cargo; it nevertheless contributed to GDP. Profitable for investors or stranded in the sand; it added to GDP. Plying the seas or rusting into an orange honeycomb shell; the nation’s GDP grew.1
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Friday, May 15, 2015
Hyper-Deflationary Death Race 2000 / Economics / Deflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
It is quite fascinating that the ultimate case for continued equity and bond price growth comes from the unspoken assumption that we will get another round or rounds of QE.
This open assumption is that things are so good that we are about to move into perpetual growth mode as the recovery breaks away into the growth.
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Thursday, May 14, 2015
Is the Keynesian Output Multiplier a Real Thing? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
It is accepted by most economists that initial increases in consumer spending or other outlays tend to set in motion a reinforcing process which supposedly strengthens the economic growth by a multiple of initial spending.
Thursday, May 14, 2015
US Economy Nearing Recession, Dollar Falling Hard / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Rubino
The dollar soars by a record amount versus the euro and the yen in 2014. And economists predict strong growth in 2015. Really? If a country can have a rapidly-appreciating currency with all the benefits that that confers, and strong economic growth with all the obvious advantages that that confers, why wouldn't everyone be going for powerhouse currencies?
Thursday, May 14, 2015
See No Evil: What We Chose to Ignore in the April Jobs Report / Economics / Employment
By: Peter_Schiff
We live in an age where bad economic news is not only unwelcome, but it is routinely overlooked or excused. On the other hand, good news is spotted and trumpeted even when it doesn't exist. An ideal illustration of this dangerous tendency towards collective selectivity came last week when the markets and the media somehow turned an awful employment report into an ideal data set that confirmed all optimism and contained nothing but good news for investors. In truth, it was anything but.
Monday, May 11, 2015
U.S. Economy is the Tallest Midget / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Dick Parsons, former chairman and chief executive officer at Time Warner, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the future for former ESPN columnist Bill Simmons, the challenge to build your own brand in digital media and looks at the future of cable M&A. He also discussed the state of banking in the U.S. as firms face penalties for Libor rate-rigging and continued regulatory oversight by the U.S. and global governments.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Is a Global Economic Recession Coming? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last month a lot of negative data on the global economy was brought to light. China's trade plunged in March and the World Trade Organization cut the 2015 global trade growth outlook to 3.3 percent from the previous 4 percent. We have already suggested in the Gold News Monitor that weak worldwide trade indicates a coming global slowdown. It is time we shared more details and in this article we analyze whether the global economy is coming into recession and what it would mean for the gold market.
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