Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Likely Economic Export Shocks From Europe / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on November 3, 2011. The possibility of a mild recession was cited as the reason for monetary policy easing. By implication, the recession should translate into fewer exports of the U.S. to Euroland. The share of US exports to the European Union (all 25 member nations) has dropped to 17.7% in August 2011 from a peak of 23.2% in February 2009.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Inflation Warning: Inflating Your Economy Means Playing with Fire / Economics / Inflation
By: Casey_Research
GoldMoney founder James Turk interviews When Money Dies author Adam Fergusson, who discusses the parallels and differences between the Weimar inflation and the situation in the US and Europe today. "I don't see how any of these [Western] economies can grow their way out of the extraordinary debts that they have."
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
The Continuing Zombification of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
We have been exploring the zombification of the US economy. Major industries – finance, health, education and defense – have been taken over by zombies, parasites whose real interest is to transfer wealth to themselves, from the part of the economy that remains productive.
As the economy becomes more zombified, the part of it dominated by these non-productive industries increases, leaving fewer resources for the productive part. And as the productive part weakens, so does the entire economy’s ability to produce real wealth, or grow its way out of debt.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
America's First Deflationary Depression: Is a Bigger One Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".
Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Stalling German Economy Will Throw Petrol on Eurozone Debt Fire / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Germany's economy is slowing dramatically, an unwelcome turn of events that will put even more strain on existing fractures in the European Union (EU) as it struggles to cope with its ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
Last month a consortium of eight leading economic institutes slashed their forecast for German economic growth in 2012 by more than half, from 2% to 0.8%.
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Sunday, November 06, 2011
Disappointing U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Number / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
The Birth-Death Model was out of normal to the high side enough to raise a comment. This is shown in the first slide. Lately the BLS statisticians had not resorted to this and had actually been running at estimates a little more to what one might expect in a business slump.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Solutions to the Global Economic Crisis: Keynesian Myths, Hopes and Illusions / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
Ismael Hossein-zadeh writes: The Keynesian view that the government can fine tune the economy through “appropriate” fiscal and monetary policies to maintain continuous growth at or near full employment is based on the idea that capitalism can be controlled by the state and managed by professional economists from government departments, that is, capitalism run by “experts” in the interest of all. Economic policy making according to this view is largely a matter of technical expertise or economic know-how, that is, a matter of choice.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Stupid Government Tricks, Let’s Tax the Millionaires, Where Will the Jobs Come From? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes. Is Greece going to vote? Take the money? Will it be an orderly default? Should Ireland default? Whatever I write, the situation will change as soon as I hit the send button tonight. (For the record, I think Greece should have a referendum. You don't go into what they are getting ready to suffer without national buy-in. No elitist deals. Put it to the people to decide, one way or the other.)
Saturday, November 05, 2011
U.S. October Employment Situation Means Fed Can Watch From the Sidelines, For Now / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.0% in October, down from 9.1% in September. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +80,000 jobs in October vs. +158,000 in September. Private sector jobs increased 104,000 after a gain of 191,000 in September. Addition of 102,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of August and September
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Saturday, November 05, 2011
Global Economy is at the Mercy of Tiny Greece? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Sy_Harding
It’s incredible when you think about it.
Greece is one of the smallest countries and economies in the world. Its population is 11 million people out of the 492 million in the combined European Union countries, and compared to 312 million in the U.S., 1.3 billion in China, 1.2 billion in India.
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Jobs Market Won't Normalize Until At Least 2023 / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Disgruntled American workers have yet another reason for pessimism: At the current rate of job creation, the U.S. unemployment rate will not fall back to "normal" levels - below 6% - until 2023.
Through most of this year the U.S. economy has managed to create about 119,000 jobs per month, but that's barely enough to keep pace with population growth. Only job creation levels of well over 120,000 jobs per month will drive down the 9.1% unemployment rate.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Is Debt Necessary for Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Since the crisis began, one of the dominant themes in arguments over proper government policy has been the Keynesian view that it is crucial to prop up total spending. The added twist during this particular recession is the crushing burden of private-sector debt, which allegedly makes it all the more urgent for governments to run fiscal deficits.
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Economic Productivity Improves, Labor Cost Remains Contained / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Productivity of the U.S. economy rose 3.1% in the third quarter, after posting decline in the first-half of the year. The downside of the improvement in productivity in the present environment is that it prevents firms from increasing payrolls.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Look at the U.S. Postal Service and see the future of the Federal Government / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Niall Ferguson is my favorite Establishment analyst, because he is an historian who understands a lot about free markets. He writes for the literati. He starred in a PBS series that was worth viewing, and another is scheduled in 2012. He teaches at Harvard University and the Harvard Business School.
He thinks America is running an empire, and he thinks it will not survive much longer. As with all empires, it is going to run out of wealth to support it. So, when he wrote a piece for the Daily Beast, Newsweek, I read it.
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Will Greece 50% Debt Default Plan Fix the Euro-zone? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Frank_Shostak
Last Thursday, October 27, European leaders secured an agreement from eurozone banks to take a 50 percent loss on the face value of their Greek debt. The leaders also set in place a plan to force banks to raise new capital to insulate them from potential sovereign-debt defaults.
The banks must meet 9 percent capital reserves by June 30, 2012. It is estimated banks' capital needs will stand at 106 billion euros.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
How China Drives the Global Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Unless investors get spooked today during Halloween trading, the S&P 500 Index will post its second-best month since the post-World War II era, according to a report published by GaveKal Research. The last time markets rallied so strongly, Gerald Ford had recently moved into the White House and Muhammad Ali "rumbled in the jungle" with George Foreman.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Why 7 Billionth Person's Birthday Is Nothing to Celebrate / Economics / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The world's 7 billionth person is likely to be born today (Monday).
However, this birthday isn't something to celebrate.
Since the global population passed 6 billion only in late 1999, we've added more than 80 million people each year on average. And the environmental footprint of those people is expanding rapidly as emerging market populations modernize.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Is the U.S. Consumer Spending Surge a 'Dance of Economic Death'? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Clif_Droke
The latest economic headline came as a surprise to the pundits, though it actually makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. On Friday the Associated Press informed us of "Americans spending more with income almost flat," per the headline. At first glance this seems almost counterintuitive, yet the sub-heading of this A.P. story put it into perspective: "Americans find tiny returns on savings and decide to spend."
Monday, October 31, 2011
Sectors Most Likely To Gain Jobs By 2015 / Economics / Employment
By: EconMatters
The job market is terrible, and the situation isn’t getting any better. The U.S. national unemployment rate is stagnant at 9.1% in September, and the jobs picture across America at state level didn't change much either, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
Happy 7th Billion Person Planet Earth / Economics / Demographics
By: Trader_Mark
If the United Nations estimates are anywhere near correct, today marks the day the world's population hits 7 billion. Could be off a few days one way or the other, but you get the gist. I actually did a story about this in 2008 - looks like it came a few months earlier than predicted! [Jun 20, 2008: World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012] Obviously this is not a 'fast money' trading event, but considering it was just twelve years ago the planet hit 6 billion, it's a pretty amazing milestone. Projections are for another two billion in about 2 generations (2050ish). From an investing perspective the growth of the world's middle class is an important development, as is the wage/labor pressure from hundreds of millions continuing to flood the world's labor markets. Tom Stevenson from Fidelity takes a look at three key outcomes from this, some of which we've discussed quite a bit a few years ago. Note - Nebraska farmland is up 20-30% year over year, as the 'farmland' trade is one of the big long term winners.
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