Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Global Balance Sheet Depression Making Second More Dangerous Credit Crisis Inevitable / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
I have been reading and talking with Simon Hunt for a long time. He is a very thoughtful Brit who spends a lot of time in China and thinks about copper and commodities and cycles. He has enough seasoning to have seen a few cycles himself. This piece summarizes rather well the view that he has expressed for some time. And while I am generally skeptical of relying too much on cycles for specifics (they work until they don't), I think Simon has some very powerful conclusions. From his summary:
"The world is in a balance sheet depression which will make a second and perhaps more dangerous credit crisis almost inevitable. That should break out next year or in 2013.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Europe Is in for a Long Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Collectively, the 27 sovereign nations that make up the European Union (EU) most likely entered a recession this quarter. Chart 1 shows that EU industrial production contracted at an annualized rate of 15.5% in September vs. August, a near certain sign of a recession. Given that the EU represents the largest economy in the world, a recession there is no small beer for the rest of the world.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Is America's Second Deflationary Economic Depression Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".
Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
Is Economic Optimism Warranted Or Not? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
"Things are not always what they seem; the first appearance deceives many; the intelligence of a few perceives what has been carefully hidden" - Author unknown
Recent economic data has surprised to the upside and once again hope springs eternal. Like a school of bait fish many economists and market pundits seem to be reversing course scrambling to highlight the positives in the economy while ignoring the structural problems that still exist.
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Friday, November 18, 2011
Darkest Days" for the U.S. Economy Behind Us, or Just Ahead? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Many people still talk about a "recovery," or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place? It can't "double-dip" when it never truly recovered:
Friday, November 18, 2011
Slowing Germany and Rising PIIGS Yield Make Perfect Economic Crisis Storm / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Capital3X
Germany registered an impressive quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5% in the third quarter. However, the recent drop in the leading indicators suggests that the German economy will not expand much in Q4, if at all; it might even contract. The uncertainties triggered by the sovereign debt crisis are increasingly dampening activity. The growth rate for the second quarter was revised upwards, from 0.1% to 0.3%. This suggests that the German economy might expand by 3.0% in 2011 as a whole which is impressive but well baked into the price.
Friday, November 18, 2011
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Improvement is Small but Notable / Economics / US Housing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 388,000 during the week ended November 12. Initial jobless claims have dropped during four out of the last six weeks and they are close to the low of 375,000 for 2011 registered during the week ended February 26 (see Chart 4). The initial jobless claims reading of the latest week is a noteworthy improvement. However, larger declines are necessary to say with confidence that the labor market has crossed the threshold of concern.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
U.S. Wholesale Prices Show Moderating Trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods fell 0.3% in October after a 0.8% jump in the prior month. A 1.4% drop of the energy price index was responsible for about two-thirds of the decline in the wholesale price index. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady in October after ten monthly gains. Lower prices for cars and trucks offset price hikes of other core items.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
U.S. October Retail Sales Bode Well for the Final Quarter of 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose 0.5% in October after a 1.1% increase in September. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of GDP, not the retail sales tally. Unit auto sales rose to 13.26 million units in October from 13.1 million units in September. These numbers imply that auto sales will make a positive contribution to spending in October. Gasoline sales are largely influenced by the price of gasoline; the 0.4% drop in gasoline sales in October reflects lower prices. Gasoline prices show a downward trend in the early days of November, implying a possible drop of the price index in November.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
These Two Emerging Markets Just Got A Lot More Enticing / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
With U.S. economic growth on the wane and the European Union (EU) on the brink of collapse, there's never been a better time to increase your exposure to emerging markets.
And two fast-growing developing economies just became a lot more enticing.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Japan Recession Ends, but Will Economic Problems Continue? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: James_Pressler
What does it say about the world when the best economic news is coming from Japan? Perhaps a better way to approach this would be to say that Japan’s latest economic figures offer some reassurance that debt worries have not paralyzed all the major economies.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Bank of England's Quantitative Inflation Bankster's Paradise Inflationary Depression Economy / Economics / Inflation
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterOctober 15th, 2011 Issue #19 Vol. 5
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Saturday, November 12, 2011
Europe’s Economic Crash Landing / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
“Italy is now mathematically beyond the point of no return.” –Barclays Capital
November 11, 2011 -- The situation in Europe gets more depressing by the day. Policymakers have waited too long and now events are beyond their control. The only way to avert a disorderly breakup and another Great Depression is by deploying the European Central Bank (ECB) to backstop the debt of the individual countries, and even that might not work. New ECB chief Mario Draghi must announce his intention to keep interest rates down regardless of the cost. Blanket guarantees are the only way to stop the bleeding. But acting as lender of last resort will not stop the contagion; it will merely minimize the damage. The dissolution of the eurozone is a foregone conclusion. It’s only a matter of time. Here’s an excerpt from an article by Edward Harrison over at Credit Writedowns:
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Saturday, November 12, 2011
The End Of The Inventory Build Cycle Giving Birth to Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Tony_Pallotta
"If you build it, he will come" ~ Field Of Dreams
Demand begets supply. Supply then fuels demand. Probably the most simplistic way to look at the economic cycle.
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Friday, November 11, 2011
Gold Thoughts on Bursting Sovereign Debt Bubble and Keynesian Super Recession / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Rarely does one live through great events. Mostly we read about them in history books. But, we are today witnessing the bursting of the greatest bubble of all time. This is the big one. More than 70 years in the making, it was inevitable. Was it popular alchemy or just another case of junk science from academia?To prepare your thinking for surviving this momentous event consider the following headlines from tomorrow¹:
Friday, November 11, 2011
Italy in Recession, Industrial Production Plunges 4.8% GDP Likely Already Negative / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is a note I received by email from Barclays Capital regarding Italian GDP and Industrial Production ...
Read full article... Read full article...Italy: September IP declined 4.8% m/m (BarCap: -4.0%, consensus: -3.0%)
Friday, November 11, 2011
U.S. Exports Narrows Trade Gap, Possibly Upward Revision of 2011:Q3 GDP / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.1 billion in September from $44.9 billion in August. The improvement of the trade gap reflects a 1.4% increase in exports of goods and services of the United States and a small gain of 0.3% in the nation’s imports of goods and services. Although the inflation adjusted petroleum trade deficit widened slightly in September ($11.9n billion vs. $11.5 billion in August), the non-petroleum trade deficit narrowed ($35.4 billion vs. $37.2 billion in August).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 11, 2011
U.S. Labor Market Small But Noteworthy Improvement / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
At the town hall meeting in Fort Bliss today, Chairman Bernanke stressed that the Fed is “focused intently” on job creation. He also mentioned that the United States will be affected adversely if there is a blow-up in Europe and added that the Fed stands ready to provide policy accommodation as necessary to minimize the damage.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Rising Wages in China Good for Glocals, But Few Jobs Coming Back / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Although some economists have predicted that steeply rising wages in China would bring some jobs back to the United States, the biggest winners will be the large multinational companies operating in China.
Last week the Guangdong province, where many of China's factories are concentrated, announced a 20% increase to the minimum wage. Combined with two earlier hikes in April and July, the total increase over the past 10 months is a startling 42%.
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Thursday, November 10, 2011
Capitalism and China, Amazing Chaos / Economics / China Economy
By: LewRockwell
Skip Cook writes: It is seven-thirty on a Sunday night. I have just completed the last leg of my trip home from Guilin, China. As I travel across the Arkansas River bridge from the Little Rock airport, headed for the bedroom community of Maumelle, where I live, I notice something conspicuously absent from my drive: Horns; nobody is honking! In China, both in Shanghai and in the smaller city of Guilin, every vehicle has a horn. Every driver is damn proud of their possession and uses it liberally. In fact, I am convinced it is likely the first mechanical device on their vehicle which will wear out.