Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 22, 2010
UK Public Sector Spending Cuts Impact on Deficit, Debt, Unemployment and Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Coalition Government on Tuesday (21st Oct) translated it's proposed spending cuts total of £81 billion over the next 4 years into a break down of which public sector departments will bare the weight of the cuts, whilst at the same time trying to persuade the population that the austerity measures have been spread across all income groups.
Friday, October 22, 2010
QE2 and the Alleged Deflation Threat / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Robert_Murphy
The markets and financial pundits are all abuzz over the prospect of another round of quantitative easing — "QE2" — in which the Fed may start buying yet another trillion dollars in assets after the elections. The justification for this massive bout of new inflation is, of course, the threat of deflation.
Friday, October 22, 2010
The U.S. Dollar is Doomed, High Inflation then Hyper-Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Puru_Saxena
Austerity be damned, at this rate Mr. Bernanke will go down in the history books as one of the greatest money creators ever to have walked this planet!
Never mind sky-high deficits and a crushing debt overhang, at its most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve all but guaranteed another round of quantitative easing.
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Thursday, October 21, 2010
Global Economic Decoupling Alive and Well / Economics / Global Economy
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
While the US economy continues to weaken (see my recent commentary: Don't Doubt the Double-Dip), many foreign economies continue to experience solid -- even spectacular -- economic growth. When the global economic crisis began in 2008, many forecasters doubted that the world economy could return to growth without the US consumer. But the world is learning what Peter Schiff has long predicted: that the US consumer is a drag on the world economy, not an engine for growth. As "decoupling" becomes more apparent, emerging economies are forming trade links among themselves, accelerating the process of decline for the United States.
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Thursday, October 21, 2010
Joseph Stiglitz Nobel Prize Winning Economist is the High Priest of the Keynesianism / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Joseph Stiglitz is a Columbia University Professor and a Nobel Prize-winning economist. He extolled the wisdom of Keynesianism on Bloomberg yesterday (video):
"Just think about it. Right now the government can borrow at zero to...two and half percent. And there are so many investments yielding returns of 10, 15, 20% - if you don't make these investments you are really robbing your children."
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Thursday, October 21, 2010
Great Economic i-Depression 2.0, U.S. Jobs Reality / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
As I listen to pundits, politicians and populists expound on the jobs situation in our country day after day, as if they knew what they were talking about, I'm reminded of the Seinfeld episode where George quits his job as a real estate agent. He sits in Jerry's apartment and ponders whether he could become the general manager of the Yankees, a sportscaster, getting paid to watch movies, or a talk show host. After the discussion with Jerry, he realizes that he has absolutely no skills that are transferable to another career. Everyone in America would like to be the General Manager of the Yankees or get paid for watching movies, but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Foreclosure Madness, Securitization Meltdown, U.S. Great Depression Written into Law / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Ty_Andros
The US economy is being SHUTDOWN at a rapid rate by the radical Marxists in the beltway, whom having never met a businessman that they like other than those who pay political tolls -- known as campaign contributions – consider the rest of the WEALTH generating private sector to be the proverbial red headed step child. Ripe for abuse…
As the denizens of the beltway do a Jack-the-RIPPER on the economy to SAVE you, runaway regulation and taxation have now killed wealth creation in the G7.
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Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Huge Rise in U.S. Unemployment Expected After Mid-Term Elections / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier this month Gallup released a survey that showed unemployment rose .8% to 10.1%
Read full article... Read full article...Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
U.S. Debt and Deficits, Learning from Canada's Experience / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: John_Mauldin
There are those who say the US is doomed, that there is no way out from our problems with deficits, future entitlement promises, and a dysfunctional political system. And in my darker moments I worry that they are right.
I get the problems, probably more than most. But there is a way out. Hopefully, it does not entail collapse first, as some suggest. But it will require a lot of hard decisions. Some will be very hard.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Financial Markets Expect QE2 to Result in Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Inflation expectations, measured as the difference between nominal 10-year Treasury note yield and yield on the 10-year inflation protected security, has moved from a low of 1.49% on August 24, just prior to the August 27 Bernanke speech, to 2.09% as of October 15. The upward trend of inflation expectations is a vote of confidence about the success of QE2. Actual inflation, based on personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred measure, moved up 1.47% in August on a year-to-year basis (see chart 2).
Monday, October 18, 2010
U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops; Where to From Here? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another sign of a weakening economy, Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in September
Read full article... Read full article...Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Factory production also decreased 0.2 percent, reflecting declines in consumer durable goods, like appliances and furniture.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Putting Austrian Business-Cycle Theory to the Test / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Paul Krugman is despairing of late, because a growing number of mainstream economists are adopting (versions of) Austrian business-cycle theory. The most recent convert is Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota.
Krugman uses the occasion to criticize what he derides as "the hangover theory" of economic slumps, in which high unemployment is necessary after an artificial boom. As happened with his earlier criticism of "the hangover theory," here too Krugman buttresses his Keynesian logic with a misguided appeal to the data.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Cutting the Payroll Tax Will Kick-start the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
On Friday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke made the case for a second round of quantitative easing (QE) claiming that inflation is presently "too low" to achieve the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. By purchasing long-term Treasuries, Bernanke hopes to lower bond yields and force investors into riskier assets. That, in turn, will push stocks higher making investors feel wealthier and more apt to boost spending. (re: "trickle down") When investors increase spending, it reduces the slack in the economy and lowers unemployment. Thus, QE is intended to divert investment to where it is needed and to lift the economy out of the doldrums.
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Sunday, October 17, 2010
Quantitative Easing, Inflation, Hyperinflation and Global Deflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
Today’s great debate basically between the US and Europe is – should the Fed go full bore by implementing a second quantitative easing? In part it is a moot point, because they have been doing just that in the repo market for four months without letting anyone know what they were up too. Their mandate is to reduce inflation and create full employment. Real inflation is 7% and unemployment is 22-3/4%. The Fed for three years has concentrated on bailing out Wall Street, banking, insurance and transnational conglomerates. Little has been done to fulfill their mandated mission. The main recipients of their largess, of course, are the firms that actually own the privately owned Fed.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Currency Wars, The Cycle of Deflation and Misguided U.S. Economic Policy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Reflation Trade Is Overdone, No Pickup in Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Bryan_Rich
In recent weeks, the dollar has been the centerpiece of speculation surrounding the outlook for global economies, rising protectionist threats and the resurgence of global asset prices. And it all derives from Fed policy.
Bernanke’s speech yesterday and the latest statement by the FOMC clearly confirm that the Fed is DEFINITELY prepared to roll out another wave of its “quantitative easing” program — expanding the money supply with the hope of stimulating demand … igniting inflationary pressures … and ultimately creating incentives for employers to hire and invest, and for consumers to borrow and spend.
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Saturday, October 16, 2010
Fed Chairman Bernanke Presents a Case for QE2, CPI Remains Subdued / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Chairman Bernanke's remarks, Friday morning, have confirmed expectations that a second round of quantitative easing (QE) will be put in place on November 3.
"Given the Committee's objectives, there would appear--all else being equal--to be a case for further action."
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Friday, October 15, 2010
Widening U.S. Trade Deficit Will Trim Q3 Real GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August, reflecting a small increase in exports and a large jump of imports. The July-August data suggest that the trade deficit will trim the headline real GDP reading in the third quarter. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Nobel Committee in Search of Economists / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
This year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics goes to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides, for their work on "search theory," especially as applied to labor markets. In the present article I'll explain the basics of their contribution but then point out the crisis in mainstream economics: even though these economists — especially Diamond — are very smart and productive, they and their colleagues have hardly helped the plight of the unemployed, as we stumble ever deeper into depression.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
China Casts Shadow Over Asia, Flawed Conventional Wisdom on the Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
The summer is over in Denver. Of course, in Denver the summer was officially over Labor Day weekend, when the outdoor swimming pools were drained and locked for the winter. For most people summer ended a few weeks later, when the leaves turned bright yellow. But not me, I wanted to hang on to this summer for as long as I could; I really did not want it to go. But my illusions were finally shattered a few days ago by rain, chilly winds, and almost-bare trees. My deliberate (though mostly harmless) failure to recognize the obvious is similar to an investor hanging on to the illusion that Quantitative Easing, the Sequel will change the fundamentals of the economy. It won’t, it will just entrap us in more debt and low interest rates. But that is a subject for a different time.