Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Black Hole Dynamics / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Man-made financial phenomena imitate nature, but more importantly they are subject to the powerful laws of economic nature. The Wall Street financial engineers have built vast structures, which tragically are crumbling and soon will fall to the ground. Vast illusory wealth will be lost, never truly garnered. The fiat currency system has required tremendous efforts not only to build the financial skyscrapers ever higher each year, but also to provide support structures that prevent their topple. With the aid of the subservient press, an illusion of wealth, prosperity, and stability has been fashioned and defended. It is all being blown away by the powerful storms known as the global financial crisis. The term has even earned an acronym for the popular lexicon GFC. My alternative view is that the global monetary war is in full swing, World War III with the USDollar at the epicenter of the conflict and pecuniary violence. A few years ago in June 2005, the Jackass penned an obscure article entitled "Financial Market Physics" just for amusement. Thanks to Vronsky and his intrepid work, the Gold-Eagle archive still lives (for old article CLICK HERE). In it was described momentum, pendulums, traction, leverage, resistance, support, inertia, coiled springs, meltdowns, high versus low pressure differentials, flow dynamics, imbalances, and the infamous black hole. The final concept is of extreme relevance today.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
Playing QE III Game of Chicken / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
Most investors and market pundits continue to misdiagnose the reason behind the worldwide economic malaise. The underlying problem isn't "uncertainty" or any other platitudes Wall Street and politicians like to offer. The truth is that massive sovereign debt defaults (if central banks allow them to be written down honestly) are very deflationary in nature.
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Wednesday, June 06, 2012
Student Loans: The Next Scam To Bubble, Pop, Collapse / Interest-Rates / Student Finances
By: Bill_Bonner
Yes, dear reader, the market seems to have turned. Friday was a disaster…
“Grim Job Report Sinks Markets,” reported The Wall Street Journal.
We’ve had our “Crash Alert” flag up for the last two weeks. Hope it helped.
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Wednesday, June 06, 2012
The Pernicious Dynamics of Deb, Deleveraging Deflation / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Dr_Martenson
At this moment, the news media is constantly clamoring about the "Three Ds" that are buffeting the markets: debt, deleveraging, and deflation. We intuitively sense that they're linked -- but how, exactly?
Understanding this linking is critical; as debt has fueled the global expansion, it will also dominate its contraction.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2012
SS €uro is Taking On Serious Water! / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Gordon_T_Long
The SS €uro is taking serious water. At the hastily called EU Summit Captains meeting on the Brussels Bridge, it was agreed that the best course of action, despite the worsening waves of bank runs, was to simply instruct the orchestra to continuing playing the same old familiar tune and order the rearrangement of the deck chairs.However, all the captains somberly recognized there were neither sufficient lifeboats nor anyone willing to come to their rescue. As usual they were in complete disagreement on what to do, they knew they had insufficient resources for anything dramatic and they were well aware the public passengers had no tolerance for any cold water austere attempts for the sake of survival.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Yield Could Drop to 1% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
In the wake of Friday's disastrous jobs number, 10-year Treasury Note yields finally fell through the 1.5% level, trading as low 1.44% on the day.
That plunge took many traders, talking heads and politicians by surprise.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2012
The Euro-zone Solution Illusion / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Nobody, in my book, slices and dices data more thoroughly or convincingly than Greg Weldon. In this week's Outside the Box, he first dispels the illusion that either of the two most-expected outcomes of the growing eurozone crisis is really any kind of a solution – neither expelling Greece nor keeping Greece in the club is going to work, he argues – and then, in a feat of legerdemain, he conjures up an alternative that just might work – and backs up his idea as only Greg can. But is this a rabbit he's pulled out of his hat, or is it ... a Black Eagle?
Monday, June 04, 2012
Will the ECB and Fed Follow Where China Leads? / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Every month, policymakers track purchasing managers' indices (PMI) around the world as they consider fiscal and monetary actions. To us, a PMI is a measure of health of companies around the world, because it includes output, new orders, employment and prices across manufacturing, construction, retail and service sectors.
Monday, June 04, 2012
The Pain in Spain Flashes Financial Armageddon, Inflation Wars / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article continues from - Euro-zone Galloping Towards Financial Armageddon
Spain is bankrupting, its central government is bankrupting, its local government is already bankrupt along with most of its banks that have been busy hiding most of their bad loan losses on crashed property developments. The credit markets despite ECB support are fast closing to Spain as it is being forced to pay credit crisis extreme financial armageddon rates of interest to borrow.
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Monday, June 04, 2012
Euro-zone Galloping Towards Financial Armageddon, Greece Will Take Third World Europe to Inflation Hell! / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Can you smell it ? There's PANIC in the Air!
For instance, apparently Britain is preparing immigration controls for an anticipated flood of refugees from Third World Europe as warns Home Secretary, Theresa May "work is ongoing to deal with large movements of people in the event of the break-up of the single currency". Though these trends have been in force for the duration of the financial crisis that has resulted in net migration of more than 250k per year as I have periodically commented upon as to why the governments forecasts for UK unemployment to FALL were never going to materialise, as workers (especially the young) from across the bankrupting Euro-zone would see Britain as a jobs safe-haven outside of the Euro-zone and that was some 2 years ago!, which the mainstream with the benefit of hindsight has only recently been picking up on.
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Monday, June 04, 2012
If you love your kids, stop the bond bonanza / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A month and a half ago, I posed the following question in Spain, Land of Magical Financial Realism:
These days when I read about Spain I'm wondering more and more how and why it is that the country has any access at all left to international finance markets.
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Sunday, June 03, 2012
Sorry Folks, QE 3 Ain’t Coming… Even the Fed Doves Admit It / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
Once again the US economy is tanking and everyone is talking QE 3. Sorry folks, it ain’t coming. Bernanke said point blank that it was less attractive as a monetary tool as far back as May ‘11!!!
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Saturday, June 02, 2012
Did Interest Swaps Drive Down U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Beware! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Jim Willie alias The Jackass has a theory interest rate swaps created speculative demand for U.S. Treasuries and that drove yields down…in other words there is a bubble.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html
If there is a bubble it will bust eventually; The Jackass says that could be catastrophic because the notional value is so huge.
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Friday, June 01, 2012
Cashing In On Japan's Debt Conundrum? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Casey_Research
Robert Ross, Casey Research writes:
On the heels of Fitch's sovereign credit downgrade to A plus (the fifth-highest investment grade), Japan's government debt continues to swell. With its debt at over 200% of its GDP, the Land of the Rising Sun appears to be embarking on a trek into the debt-laden unknown.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Credit Continues to Shrink in Euroland / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
By: Asha_Bangalore
Total monetary financial institutional (MFI) lending has dropped in five out of the last six months. In April, MFI lending fell 0.2% from a year ago after stalling in February and March (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Growth in U.S. National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: BATR
The one inescapable drag on the economy and every American taxpayer or government dependant is the interest obligation paid on the national debt. Indebtedness is nothing new to this country, but the inability to service the public debt stretches over the last half century. This trend is so disturbing that politicians spend every waking hour avoiding the consequences of the ultimate outcome, the demise of the currency. The reserve currency status that has allowed for effortless deficit spending has a day of reckoning. The final collapse of the global empire and superpower will smell more of financial evaporation than of a military defeat.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Espana en Fuego / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
What's really left to say about Spain, anymore? This 12th largest economy in the world now finds itself as close to financial meltdown as a country (other than Greece) can get, and it has gotten there by taking the most twisted and shady path that it could find. Ilargi wrote about this shadiness back on April 18 in his article, Spain, Land of Magical Financial Realism. In it, he discussed how the bank bailout fund in Spain was being funded by... the Spanish banks themselves, so as to allow the Spanish government to under-state its actual deficit/GDP ratio. Most of that "money", in turn, came from the ECB LTRO Part Dos, which gave out billions worth of 3-year loans to these banks and, in exchange, encumbered just about ALL of the (already toxic) collateral available in the Spanish banking system.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
U.S. Muni Bond Market Debt Default Tsunami / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: EWI
The front edge of the coming bond default tsunami is clearly visible in our discussion of the burgeoning credit crisis in Europe. Less publicised, but every bit as important, is the debt burden that is smothering U.S. municipalities. CTC warned that muni bond tax-exemptions would "ultimately trap investors into a risky position," and EWFF has continually stated that defaults will rise as cushy municipal pensions and health benefits garden a bigger share of a decreasing tax base.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Mervyn's Pringle Problem / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Adrian_Ash
Bank to Treasury: Forget credit easing. It's your debt that needs queasing...
UNLIKE PRINGLES tasty potato snacks, quantitative easing doesn't come with a resealable lid. So the famous sales line is only more true for central bankers:
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Thursday, May 24, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Teetering Tower Of Babel, Fed Stuck At 0% Forever / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.