Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Brainard's Wake-up Call to Fed on U.S. Rate Hike Calls / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The growing inverse correlation between the frequency of Fed speeches and uniformity of the message on monetary policy action cannot be ignored. The newest member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors hasn't made too many speeches, but her message has been on point since her first speech in June.
In her speech yesterday, Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Governor since June of this year, dealt a prominent blow to the hawks at the Fed, by contradicting three major premises upon which calls for a 2015 rate hike are built. Having served as Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs for over three years, she knows a few things about international developments. Here are some of the central points of her speech:
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Tuesday, October 13, 2015
The Mindless Stupidity of Negative Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MM
MoneyMorning.com By Lee Adler, Editor's Note: We're sharing this Wall Street Examiner column with you today because negative interest rates are destroying trillions of dollars in wealth in Europe right now, cheered on by some of the "smartest" economists in the world – who want to bring NIRP here. Here's Lee Adler with some facts that show why negative rates are a horrible idea…
There are troubling signs that the doves at the Federal Reserve are considering a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as a way to handle "the next crisis" – and there's always a next crisis…
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Monday, October 12, 2015
Move over ZIRP... Here Comes NIRP! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals prices enter the new week looking to extend the rally that began Oct. 2nd. Silver has gained nearly 10%, and gold is up almost 3.5%. The notion that the Federal Reserve governors may have missed their window to raise interest rates is beginning to sink in with investors.
In fact, if the U.S. economy should fall into recession, investors may see central planners move from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) to the launch of negative interest rates.
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Monday, October 12, 2015
IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Warns 'IMF Credibility at Stake' / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
IMF head Christine Lagarde says "IMF credibility is at stake". She blames the US for that development, and calls on US to give more voting power to China to solve the problem.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Negative Interest Rates Tantalizing Stupidity and the Case for Gold / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Financial Repression Insanity
Purportedly the Fed is ready willing and able to go to next step of financial repression insanity.
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Thursday, October 08, 2015
What Trump and Other Pessimists Don’t Understand About U.S. Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes:I received still more blowback from my last few columns about Donald Trump and the economic pessimists.
Some readers are in no mood to hear anything positive about the state of the country or our current economic situation.
Others realize that the economy is growing, the dollar is strong, inflation is low, American corporations are reporting record profits and U.S. household net worth just hit an all-time high.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Summers Grades Janet Yellen's Fed Performance 'Incomplete' / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Bloomberg
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers joined hosts Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. He discussed the economy, the 2008 financial crisis, and Janet Yellen's job performance as Federal Reserve Chair.
On what grade he would give Janet Yellen, Summers said: "I'd give her an incomplete because the term is not yet over. But she's done, as I say, I've got great respect for Janet Yellen."
Wednesday, October 07, 2015
QE3 is Over Get Ready for QE4 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: BATR
As the world economy falters and sinks into the abyss of fiscal deflation, the banksters need a new game plan to rescue their debt created monetary system. Notwithstanding, the Federal Reserve would be hard pressed to introduce negative interest rates in the United States as has been tried and tested abroad. Maybe under circumstances of a total meltdown such desperate measures would be forced upon the public, but as conditions presently exist, another dose of quantitative easing is more likely.
Monday, October 05, 2015
Financial Repression – Governments Boost their Coffers and Hold Down Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said the government will run out of money to pay its bills sooner than previously thought around November 5, 2015. Lacking sufficient cash, it would be impossible for the United States of America to meet all of its obligations for the first time in our history.
Again, another year, to increase the USA debt limit by the government. Will monetary and fiscal policy ever return to “sanity”? Will the political leaders ever become brave enough to quit spending more of the taxpayer’s monies than they bring in without fear of losing elections? Will Americans ever elect someone who doesn’t just promise them more and more “stuff,” and who will just start acting responsibly with the nation’s treasury?
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Monday, October 05, 2015
Fed Interest Rate Hike: "I don't care. It doesn't really make much of a difference" / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Steve Schwarzman, CEO, The Blackstone Group, joined hosts Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin for the debut of Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Schwarzman discussed the Federal Reserve, Volkswagen in the wake of the pollution controls scandal,2016, and Ohio State Governor John Kasich.
On whether there will be a rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, Schwarzman said: "I don't care. It doesn't really make much of a difference. Interest rate hikes of 25% that people have been talking about for 2-1/2 years, I mean really. If you haven't discounted a lot of this stuff, they've got the issue that raising interest rates is probably a good thing. However their problem is that because the US currency has appreciated against almost everyone in the world, in effect, we've had the impact of an interest rate increase already through slowing of the economy."
Monday, October 05, 2015
U.S. Jobs Report Moves Fed One Step Closer to QE IV / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
The September Non-Farm Payroll Report came in with a net increase of just 142k jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% and the labor force participation rate dropped to the October 1977 low of 62.4%. Average hourly earnings fell 0.04% and the workweek slipped to 34.5 hours. There were significant downward revisions of 22k and 37k jobs for the July and August reports respectively.
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Saturday, October 03, 2015
U.S. Interest Rate Hikes Keep On Slippin' Into the Future; Treasury Yields Sink Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Treasury Yields Drop Again
Curve Watcher's Anonymous notes a further plunge in yields today following the disastrous payroll and factory order reports.
Yield on the 30-year long bond fell to 2.80% from 2.85% yesterday. Yield on the 10-year note once again sports a 1-handle at 1.97%, down from 2.03%.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
U.S. Rake Hike - Fed Must Thank China and EM / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The US September jobs report deals a significant blow to the notion of a 2015 Fed hike--against which we consistently disagreed throughout the year - as it achieved the gloomy feat of disappointing across the board -- headline rate (first back-to-back months of sub 200K in 18 months), downward revision in prior months (-59K), notable decline in average hourly earnings, and the unchanged unemployment rate was offset by the decline in the participation rate to a fresh 38-year lows.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
U.S. Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative, Recession Warning? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.
Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Everything Going Wrong At Once Edition / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
After the markets failed to embrace its most recent interest rate dither, the Fed dispatched pretty much its entire PR team to make sure we understood that rates would rise Next Month For Sure.
Then everything kind of fell apart. Emerging market capital flight accelerated…
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Friday, October 02, 2015
US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
By Jared Dillian
This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.
I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Clive_Maund
Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Rubino
One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Interest Rates All Bad at 0%? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.
Friday, September 25, 2015
Central Banks Don't Dictate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Frank_Shostak
According to mainstream thinking, the central bank is the key factor in determining interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates the central bank, it is argued, through expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy influences the entire interest rate structure. (According to expectations theory (ET), the long-term rate is an average of the current and expected short-term interest rates.) Note that interest rates in this way of thinking are set by the central bank, while individuals in all of this have almost nothing to do and just mechanically form expectations about the future policy of the central bank. (Individuals here are passively responding to the possible policy of the central bank.)