Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Uncle Sam Busted, The S&P U.S. Debt Rating Announcement / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Robert_Murphy
On Monday, Standard and Poor's (S&P) announced that although the US government would retain its AAA debt rating, the outlook for the United States' future was being downgraded from "stable" to "negative." The move is a welcome if tepid acknowledgement of the fiscal train wreck of which Austrians have been warning for years.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Bernanke's QEx Money Printing Box / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Gordon_T_Long
Chairman Bernanke has placed himself in a box. It is not a box of his choosing, but rather the result of his misguided economic beliefs, use of flawed statistical data, geo-political events occurring during his watch, poor decisions and a penchant for political pandering. Some of these may be requirements for academia success but not for leading global financial markets during turbulent times.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
How to Dodge the Coming U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: We're on a collision course with the worst bond market collapse in decades.
The warning signs are as clear as day.
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
Understanding the Fed, Explaining Common and Misleading Myths about the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: EWI
What exactly is the function of the Fed? If it's to help the U.S. economy grow steadily, then how come in 2007-2009 we had the biggest stock market crash in decades followed by "the Great Recession" and a worldwide financial crisis?
For answers, let's turn to someone who has spent a considerable amount of time studying the Fed and its functions: EWI's president Robert Prechter.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Quantitative Easing and the Fed Balance Sheets 50% Contraction / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
Dr. John Hussman is no stranger to Outside the Box readers. And his recent posting has my mind reeling. In essence he is saying that if the Fed wants to stop the QE and allow rates to rise, they must either reverse the QE or bring on inflation. And he does it with numbers and his usual strong reasoning. I really did read this 3-4 times, thinking through the implications.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Government Debt Bubble Targeted with S&P Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jason_Kaspar
Washington has been placed on notice that it’s reckless spending and unfathomable fiscal debt is not immune to the censure of Wall Street.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Standard & Poor’s US Sovereign Debt Downgrade Initial Reflections / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
Standard & Poor's changed in its outlook on US sovereign debt to "negative" but reaffirmed the AAA rating of the nation's debt. Today's financial market response to this action includes equity prices viewing this in negative light. As of this writing the S&P 500 was down 1.1% at 1305. At the same time, the Treasury market posted a significant rally, with the 10-year Treasury note yield trading around 3.37% after closing at 3.43% on April 15. The dollar has gained ground vis-à-vis the euro and pound sterling. Gold prices moved ahead to nearly $1500 per ounce and oil prices have edged down.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
S&P Downgrade Shows U.S. Debt Crisis Could Have Dire Consequences / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The latest development in the U.S. debt crisis came yesterday (Monday) when Standard & Poor's finally downgraded its outlook for U.S. debt to "negative," from "stable."
That's right: Of the 17 countries that S&P has rated AAA, the United States is the only sovereign that carries with it a negative outlook.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Standard & Poor's U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade Watershed Event / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
"Common sense tells us that a government central bank creating new money out of thin air depreciates the value of each dollar in circulation." ~ Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)
Monday, April 18, 2011
U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade, S&P Late to the Party Once Again / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
The only thing more ridiculous than S&P's too little too late semi-downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt was the market's severe reaction to the announcement. Has S&P really added anything to the debate that wasn't already widely known? In any event, S&P's statement amounts to a wake up call to anyone who has somehow managed to sleepwalk through the unprecedented debt explosion of the last few years.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Next Phase of Global Sovereign Debt Crisis, Greek Government in Denial / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
A Greek newspaper reported that Greece is in talks with the IMF regarding debt restructuring. However, Greek Finance Minister issued this denial "Restructuring is not an issue we’re discussing".
Last week, the media went gaga over a no-news announcement from German officials that restructuring was on the table. It should not have caused a stir because anyone watching the market knows perfectly well a restructuring is coming. Denials from Greece cannot stop it.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Fed U.S. Treasury Bond Market Manipulating Fraud, How Long Can it Continue? / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
By: Jesse
I have had this video on the manipulation of the debt markets by the Fed in the Matières à Réflexion links since last week, but moved it here on request because apparently many missed it, and did not understand its importance.
Monday, April 18, 2011
SP Eventually Downgrades U.S Debt Ratings to Negative / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jesse
This is the same SP whose ratings were for sale to the banks throughout the build up to the financial crisis, and which has largely escaped investigation and indictment. So, even though their opinion here may be valid, how are we to know that it has not been bought again, with regard to timing and impact?
Monday, April 18, 2011
Investing in Irish Bonds - Heads You Win, Tails You Probably Win Also / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Rory_Gillen
The Irish government finally overcapitalises the Irish banks and then Portugal gets a bail out. In response, investors buy Irish bonds aggressively signalling, in my view, the end of the banking crisis in Ireland and the possibility that the periphery Euro-zone crisis ended with Portugal. A strong Euro is consistent with this reading. That being the case, there is an opportunity for all Irish savers and investors, and particularly pension investors, to earn much higher returns from Irish government bonds than can be earned from either bank deposits or An Post’s National Solidarity Bond.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Awaiting the 'Zero Hour' of Available Credit / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Richard_Daughty
I watch expectantly as the national debt again nears the debt limit, and Zero Hour is just a few weeks away, a term I cleverly used to indicate that available credit will be zero. Maxed out.
I let it go at that, as I am not inebriated enough to get up on my high horse to loudly and rudely note that nobody in the corrupt government (including the Federal Reserve) apparently needs any stinking permission from anybody to do anything anymore, including any number or frauds and corruptions, to keep the government wallowing in the oceans of cash it so desperately, desperately needs to keep, you know, wallowing.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Ireland Should Consider Joining the Sterling Area or the Dollar / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
“On Thursday 18th November 2010 The IMF arrived in the Emerald Isle. What a sad sad day that was for the proud people of Ireland. Following 300 years of armed struggle the then resident Fianna Fail government replaced English masters with the Continental variety. However the method of usurpation this time was not guns and bullets and starvation but economic and financial prowess. To the victor will go the spoils.”
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Why the FOMC Interest Rate Doves Have an Advantage at the April Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
Economic recessions have differences and similarities. In terms of the duration and depth of a recession, the most recent downswing in economic activity is a close cousin of the 1981-82 recession, which lasted 16 months. During this recession, real GDP fell 2.6% from peak to trough and the unemployment rate shot up to 10.8% by December 1982. The most recent recession is 18 months long, real GDP has dropped 4.1% from peak to trough, and the unemployment rate hit a high of 10.1% in October 2009.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Bill Gross, Master of Monetary Psy-Ops / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Every so often, and more often than not, a rumor emerges in the blogosphere about a significant development, seemingly adverse to the interests of the U.S. federal government, being manufactured by the government to further solidify their control over the masses. Sometimes these rumors are plainly absurd on their surface, and sometimes they are just too perfect to be true. The nature of these "psy-ops" is that they are nearly impossible to verify with any direct evidence until well after the fact, so we must rely on indirect logical analysis and a bit of intuition.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Financial Crisis in 2012 is Inevitable! Here’s Why / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Arnold_Bock
2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The End of QE2: Fed Major Policy Shift Ahead, How to Invest Accordingly / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box is from my friend David Galland, an interview he did for The Casey Report, and it represents a philosophical train of thought more in line with Austrian economics and libertarianism than my own. But if we only read what we already think, then how do we learn? It is only when your ideas are challenged and you must determine why the other guys are wrong and you are right, that you can either become more firm in your beliefs, or change. And much of what David says in this interview resonates. (I wrote about the end of QE2 a few weeks ago.)