Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Bond Vigilantes are Fighting the Fed By Pushing Up Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Cant' fight the Fed? Bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed and winning at bidding up bond yields. Short of another shock-&-awe policy announcement this Wednesday, the FOMC decision is likely to generate fresh dollar strength against risk currencies (non-JPY).
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Falsifying Bank Balance Sheets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Professor_Emeritus
Our title is borrowed from a caption of the Chicago economist and monetary scientist Melchior Palyi (1892-1970) writing on the fiscal and monetary legerdemain of the U.S. government in his Bulletin #401, dated February 27, 1960, as follows.
Faking balance sheets legalized
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Obama Says Short US Treasuries, an Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
Back in March, I penned this essay, Obama Says Short US Treasuries, making the bear case for the US government’s fiscal position and the Treasury long bond: http://mises.org/story/3364
Then I wrote this follow-up, Inflection Point in US Treasury Bond Interest Rates Near: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9294.html
Monday, April 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Fall Despite Supportive Fundamentals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market is testing the line in the sand drawn by the Bernanke Fed at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury note yield. While stocks held their own with the Nasdaq closing positive for the 7th week in a row, bonds continued to trade in a leaky fashion. There was all sorts of chatter about the government stress tests being flunked by most financial institutions, but until we see an official announcement, rumours of across the board insolvencies remain just that: rumours!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
LIBOR Interest Rate Nudges Below 1.5% On Quantitative Easing and Price Deflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 3 Month Inter bank Money Market Interest Rate (LIBOR) drifted below 1.5% for the first time in over 50 years despite the budget busting deficit budget delivered on Tuesday. The prime drivers of lower LIBOR rates are the Bank of England providing near unlimited liquidity to the Banking System coupled with the 0.5% base rate coupled with Quantitative Easing (monetization of debt) with the prime aim of driving down interest rates across the curve i.e. from the short end to the long-end. This is further reinforced by the deflationary driven sentiment following RPI of -0.4% for March.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
UK Savings Interest Rates in Free Fall, Pensioners Pay the Price / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Savings rates are still in freefall with the average no notice rate currently at 0.64%, just above bank base rate.The recent published inflation figures shows that the real return after basic tax and inflation on an average no notice savings account is 1.06 per cent for RPI, but is at a worrying minus 2.24 per cent for CPI.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Now 2 Standard Deviations Cheaper than Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market continues to chop around aimlessly. The market was stronger most of the week, but a 2 point sell-off on Friday destroyed all the gains and then some. The fundamental news turned considerably weaker – even in relation to expectations - but the stock market managed to show further gains for the 6th week in a row now. That generated further outflow from bonds to stocks. Based on the Fed model which compares the 10 year Treasury note to the dividend yield in the stock market, stocks made a close to 4 standard deviation move relative to bonds in a little over one month.
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Bernanke's Un-shrinkable Fed Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Michael_Pento
As he stated again clearly today, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has deluded himself into thinking that when the time comes, he will be able to shrink the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and reduce the monetary base with both ease and impunity. He also has deluded himself into thinking inflation will be easily contained.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
What to Do When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Falls / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson Writes: Jesse Livermore called it "the path of least resistance." Livermore is probably the greatest trader that ever lived. He made his first fortune in the stock market as a teenager... in the late 1890s. The book of his trading techniques – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – is the best book on stock market trading ever written. You shouldn't buy another stock until you've read it. (Just don't copy his money-management techniques. By overtrading, Livermore made and lost several multimillion-dollar fortunes in his lifetime.)Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2009
Economic Weakness Supportive of Bond Prices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
Before the start of this week’s column, I would like to make a quick announcement. I am not affiliated with MF Global any longer, so please note the new contact email below if you wish to reach me. The old email address and phone number that was published in previous editions is no longer functional.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2009
How To Take Advantage of Low Mortgage Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: Mike_Shedlock
President Obama declares "good news" and says Timing right for millions to refinance . Declaring "good news" in the midst of an economic meltdown, President Barack Obama on Thursday urged families to take advantage of near-record low mortgage rates by refinancing their home loans.
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Thursday, April 09, 2009
UK Interest Rates on Hold, the Easing of Quantitative Easing? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Interest rates are expected to be kept on hold at today's MPC meeting at the record low of 0.5%, which is indicative of the FAILURE of monetary policy to counter the economic slump as the economy started to fall off the edge of the cliff during the summer months of 2008 in the wake of a housing market in freefall as bank after bank teetered on the edge of bankruptcy requiring literally a £1 trillion tax payer guarantee and capital injection bailouts to prevent financial armageddon. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Corporate Bond Default Rate Highest Since Great Depression / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Moodys says Default Rate Surges to Highest Since Depression .Thirty-five companies defaulted in March, the highest number in a single month since the Great Depression, according to Moody's Investors Service.
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Monday, April 06, 2009
Fed's Flawed Strategy of Buying Long Dated Treasuries to Force Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke thinks he can manipulate treasury yields by purchasing long dated treasuries. He can't. The market is simply too big. Please consider Treasurys slide after Fed purchases .Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Debt is a drug...Danger of Overdose? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andrew_Butter
Kids are diff-erent today, I hear evry mother say...but there's a little yellow pill...Doctor please, some more of these...outside the door, she took four more. (Rolling Stones: Mother's Little Helper).
The problem with drugs is you develop a tolerance to the thrill part, without necessarily developing a tolerance to the addictive part.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2009
U.S. Debtor Meets G20 Creditors at the Dollar's Funeral / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, US Dollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Market in Limbo as Lenders Ignore Defaults / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
There is a new twist in commercial real estate action today. Lenders are ignoring defaults of $billions on commercial real estate as if nothing happened, praying that credit conditions will improve. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Bank Losses Spreading as Interest Rate Derivatives Start Imploding / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes:For the first time in history, U.S. banks have suffered large, ominous losses in a giant sector that, until now, they thought was solid: bets on interest rates.
In a moment, I'll explain what this means for your savings and your stocks.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Current Financial Crisis Russia Debt Default Risk Lower than 1998 / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Pravda
The current economic crisis will be a lot harder than the financial collapse of 1998, a recent report from the World Bank said. WB experts believe that Russia will have to deal with severe problems as a result of the crisis. The economic growth in the country will decline considerably and the recovery will take a much longer time in comparison with the critical period of 1998, when Russia declared default.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
The Thinking Behind the Stimulus and Bailout Programs / Interest-Rates / Economic Stimulus
By: John_Mauldin
It is important to understand the thinking of those who are in fact making the decisions at the Fed and Treasury. In today's Outside the Box, Paul McCulley, Managing Director at PIMCO, gives us some insight into the thinking that is driving the massive stimulus and bailout programs. Whether or not you agree, it is important to have a handle on what is actually happening and the thinking behind it.Read full article... Read full article...