Category: Stock Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 08, 2020
Stock Market Bears Running Out Of Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as a ‘gap up and go’ structure that faded in the final few minutes of regular trading hours (RTH). If you recall, RTH opened at 2863.25 after Monday’s closing print of 2827.5 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), so it was a +1.2% gap up. Then price action continued in the trending direction for the majority of the day, forming higher lows and higher highs as the northbound train goes towards the immediate targets.
However, the bears made a counterattack around 2889.75 high, which was right near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2965-2771 range, and swiftly backtested into our key support of 2850 by the end of the day.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Money Printing is the New Mother's Milk of Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
My friend Larry Kudlow always says that Profits are the mother's milk of stocks. That used to be true when we had a real economy. But sadly, that is no longer factual because we now have a global equity market that is totally controlled by central banks. To prove this point, let's look at the last few years of earnings. During the year 2018, the EPS growth for the S&P 500 was 20%; yet the S&P 500 Index was down 7% over that same time-frame.
Conversely, during 2019, the S&P 500 EPS growth was a dismal 1%; yet the Index surged by nearly 30%. What could possibly account for such a huge divergence between EPS growth and market performance? We need only to view Fed actions for the simple answer: it was the degree to which our central bank was willing to falsify asset prices.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Another Stock Market Selloff Could Drive More Bullion Buying / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Investors got a look at first quarter GDP, and it wasn’t pretty. The U.S. economy contracted by 4.8%, even worse than the 3.3% decline anticipated by economists.
In addition to that bad news, 4 million more Americans filed for unemployment last week. More than 30 million people have lost jobs over the past 6 weeks, and the situation is only getting worse.
The S&P 500 lost 2.8% on Friday.
Perhaps equity investors are beginning to wonder if share prices, which have moved relentlessly higher in recent weeks, accurately reflect the dismal economic data.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
This Stock Market Makes No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
The title to this update is likely the most repeated phrase you have heard over the last month from market participants and analysts alike. As more and more bad economic news is presented through the media, somehow, the market just keeps grinding higher.
I think this picture taken from one of Jim Cramer’s shows expresses the disconnect best:
Doesn’t the market understand what everyone else clearly “knows:” we are heading into the next Great Depression?
As I have always tried to make people understand, the stock market and the economy are not one and the same. Rather, there is a reason that the stock market is considered the best “leading indicator” for the economy. And, it is purely because market sentiment (the true underlying driver of the stock market) is seen in action much quicker within the stock market as relative to the fundamentals within the economy, which take time to catch up to the market action.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2020
SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
Early 2020 the fear was the human race 'David' may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) 'Goliath', well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.
Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review
In the previous post the blog said (part 1)
.."We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out."...
Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Fed Cuts Equities Stimulus 86% This Week and Stocks Are Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
What happens to the global markets when the US Fed begins to weaken stimulus activity and when the global markets must begin to function on their own? Are the global markets capable of sustaining current price levels without the Fed supporting them?
A recent news article suggests the US Fed has drastically slashed stimulus activity over the past 5+ days. From a peak level of nearly $600 Billion a week to current levels near $83 Billion per week – a -86% decrease. How will this reflect in the market’s ability to sustain current price levels in the face of disastrous Q2 expectations? Yup, markets are falling fast and hard going into the weekend as expected!
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Stock Market Hit Resistance and Fell, Transportation Sector Forms Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the Transportation Index and the S&P SPDR ETF setup topping patterns near the end of April 2020. In terms of technical triggers, these patterns need to see additional downside price confirmation before we can confirm the true potential for these setups. If they do confirm, we could be starting a new downside price trend fairly soon.
The recent market upside price move is dramatically different on the TRAN chart vs. the SPY chart. Even though the SPY price advance has mirrored the move in the ES and NQ, the TRAN upside price move has been more muted. This is because global economic activity has continued to stall and is not translating into active shipping and trucking activity. Remember, the Transportation Index helps us to understand the core levels of economic activity as parcels and products move around the globe.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Stock Market Resuming the Major Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – resuming decline?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 04, 2020
Stock Market “Fundamentals ? It’s ALL in the Chartology” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonight’s Precious Metals charts I would like to make a comment on the US stock markets. I will take some flack over some of the comments I’m going to make but that’s fine as it won’t be the first time nor the last.
Let me start by saying, “The only rule when it comes to trading the stock markets is, “There Are No Rules.” The other important rule that I live by is that, “the markets are always right regardless of what I think.” It’s interesting to hear comments like, the markets don’t trade like they used so its not any fun anymore. Even trading during the mania phase in the tech bubble parabolic rise wasn’t easy. Or the markets can’t keep going up because of no volume or interest rates are too high or countless other reasons that only make sense according to traditional investing.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2020
This Major Stock Market Indicator is Flashing a HUGE Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Here's what should happen during a bear-market rally as sentiment rises
A question was posed to Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter for a classic Elliott Wave Theorist (Prechter's monthly publication about financial markets and social trends since 1979):
Under the Wave Principle, what is the most important thing to watch other than price?
Prechter answered:
Volume.
You see, high trading volume means that traders are displaying a great deal of conviction about a given market, whether the trend is up or down. Low trading volume means a lack of enthusiasm.
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Monday, April 27, 2020
Stock Market Re-testing the Recent High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Stocks Bears Hoping To Win Battle At Confluence Of Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session saw an immediate downside continuation based off of Monday’s double top/lower high setup. Essentially, the bears broke support and hit a quick homerun into the daily 20EMA 2718 target on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), and then buyers/bulls showed up to put a temporary floor in place. It was a fairly simple trend day to the downside that could be classified as a ‘gap down and go’ day given the fact that the majority of the losses occurred during the overnight globex hours.
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Friday, April 24, 2020
Stock Market 40 Year Cycle - 1980 Part 2? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
We are tracking the 1980 correction in relation to the ongoing correction today. Thus far, the two have been shockingly similar.
1980 SHARE MARKET CHART 40 YEAR CYCLE
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Tuesday, April 21, 2020
The Fed Induced Stock Market Twilight-Zone / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past three weeks have been filled with intense drama, incredible highs and lows, political battles that continue to this day, and millions of questions from people throughout the world. Throughout this COVID-19 virus event and the collapse of the US and global markets, one continued belief has prevailed – the US Fed will attempt to rescue the global markets (again).
Late last week, President Trump announced a task force to evaluate how and when to reopen the US economy and more than US nine states have already committed to a staged reopening process. COVID-19 virus being what it is, the US is going to attempt to lead the way forward. This means every resource and every effort will be taken to engage in a proper process to protect our future while battling this virus outbreak.
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Monday, April 20, 2020
Stock Market End of Countertrend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications
Whilst the UK's trend trajectory appears to be stabilising, which offers some light at the end of Britains' dark coronavirus tunnel. However, the key driver for stock market trends, the US is still accelerating away which means more uncertainty that the stock markets are likely to seek to discount as the markets are seeking numbers that are first stabilising in the rate of increase and then to start decreasing on a daily basis, instead were still in the DOUBLING ever 2 to 3 days phase!
This implies to continue expect a bearish trend trajectory despite Fed panic actions, and the US sending $1200 checks to every american who earns under $75,000 per year, with likely several more payments over the coming months. Though Dr Fauci putting a number of 100k to 200k deaths may shock americans and the markets, especially given Trump's ramblings of how it will all be over by Easter. Nevertheless gives a number against which the general public and markets will be measuring relative strength and weakness. For instance the US is currently trending towards 38,000 deaths by the end April in the face of which the markets could out perform if the number of deaths is seen to far under achieve the bottom figure of 100k.
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
Stock Market Range-bound Price Action Awaiting Resolution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday's session played out as a range day. Most of the downside action occurred during Tuesday night, and Wednesday’s regular trading hours were spent bouncing from our key support zone in the 2750 area back to the middle of the range towards 2785/2800 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). As we demonstrated in real-time in our ES Trading Room at ElliottWaveTrader, it was just a textbook feedback loop squeeze setup given that bears/sellers kept failing to breakdown below our key 2750's support.
The main takeaway remains the same: Price action is still battling between our 4-hour white line and red line price projections. Price action is inside a range of 2840-2750 for the time being and trapping both sides, so traders need to be more patient in this area and wait for additional clues/edges.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
In Every Stock Bear Market, One Asset Always Surges in Value / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"The relative value of cash will necessarily zoom higher when stocks plunge."
A negative sentiment toward cash had been in place for quite some time.
Let's go back a little more than a year when our Feb. 2019 Elliott Wave Theorist showed this chart and said:
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
Could This Be a “Suckers” Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.
Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
This 6-Week Stocks Bear Market May Be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
So, if you are like most market participants, there are many fallacies which you have likely accepted of late.
First, you are likely viewing this “bear market” as having begun 6 weeks ago. Yet, if you actually understood the broader market in a bit more depth and better context, you would actually be viewing this “bear market” as having begun in early 2018. This is actually supported by the great majority of the stocks underlying the market. So, while the SPX rallied much higher than its 2018 highs, most stocks as well as many other indices did not. So, much of the evidence suggests this “bear market” has lasted over 2 years at this point in time, and is likely closer to its conclusion than just beginning.
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