Category: Stock Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.
So with that preface out of the way, I’ll first offer a health warning of sorts about a type of COVID-19 chart that’s popular with market bulls. Here’s a version that appeared in the New York Times:
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is the Stock Market discounting the Coronavirus yet?
Well what will be effect on the stock market when we see start to see the numbers of infected virtually doubling every couple of days over the coming week, especially as unlike China the US is not going to hide the numbers of infected.
The markets look at the numbers, they want to see the number of infected stabilising and then DECREASING on a daily basis, and NOT DOUBLING every couple of days!
Therefore this implies we are going to continue to experience a bearish trend trajectory for at least March and likely April, despite Fed panic actions, as it now looks like my estimate of 13,000 US infected by the end of March gave way too much credence to US healthcare and CDC competency, instead both have proven to be seriously lacking i.e. closer in performance to that of Iran than South Korea!
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: First phase of correction nearly over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, March 23, 2020
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Saturday, March 21, 2020
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
My friend Ben Hunt wrote two weeks ago that we were in a period of “don’t ask, don’t test.” He has been extremely critical, and rightly so, about the slow response in getting tests available.
When we actually start testing at scale, I suspect we will find a lot of people have the coronavirus. My extremely informed sources consider it quite reasonable to expect 100,000 people in the US will test positive in a relatively short time.
The mainstream media will breathlessly report each increase and their locations and what is happening at the local hospitals. How do you think people will respond as the number of cases approaches 100,000 with no sign of slowing?
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Wednesday, March 18, 2020
The Stocks Bear Market Is Upon Us... Or Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have to tell you that the last 6 months in this market have been the most unusual of my career as a public analyst. And I tried warning many of you of the potential, yet most chose to deride my perspective, as many got suckered into the biggest fake-out I have ever seen in the market.
In my analysis published on emerging markets back in early February entitled “Sentiment Speaks: Emerging Markets Look Sick,” I warned that EEM presented us with a chart that looked truly bearish for 2020. Moreover, I had been warning members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that IWM has not confirmed the breakout we saw in the SPX for several months. It was for this reason that I was unwilling to aggressively play the long side in the equity market, at least until IWM proved otherwise.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast Number Crunching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This is one of those articles that are packed with resources showing your what to expect for various assets both long-term and short-term and will guide you through these volatile times and this year.
Our friends and followers continue to contact us asking what to expect and what should they be doing with their assets and trades? Our research and analysis have been very clear up to this point; we warned of a Zombie Rally in early November and early December 2019, we warned that Oil would fall below $40 on November 15, 2019, and we warned of a global Black Swan event on January 26, 2020.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
New Coronavirus Warnings of Stock Market Shutdown, Martial Law / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As cancellations, emergency restrictions, and panic selling of assets spreads, the global economy is at risk of grinding to a halt. We are already in the throes of the worst market mayhem since 2008.
If the news on the coronavirus front gets any worse from here, we will be facing a once in a century financial crisis – and a possible Great Depression ahead.
That said, there are at least some reasons to be hopeful. The number of coronavirus cases in China and Korea appears to have plateaued. Warmer weather in the weeks ahead and more aggressive containment strategies may begin to inhibit the spread of the deadly infection in the U.S. and Europe.
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Sunday, March 15, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
As expected reality was to knock on the door of everything priced to perfection, but is the panic selling done yet?
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Stocks Keep Plunging Like There’s No Tomorrow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
If you think that yesterday’s session in stocks was a bloodbath, don’t look at today’s overnight trading. It would be an understatement to say that the markets didn’t buy into stimulus package contours or the 30-day Europe flights ban. What about today’s ECB monetary policy statement, can that really lift the bulls? Enjoy the wild ride and despair not, as we’re profiting on it.
Let’s jump right into the weekly chart to see the shape of the week-in-progress (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, March 15, 2020
Crashing Markets and the Threat of Deflation Will Lead to the Next Great Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As the coronavirus spreads fear, sickness, and death, a specter haunts investors – the specter of deflation.
Despite central bankers’ attempts to push inflation rates higher, equity and commodity markets are collapsing. Inflation expectations as reflected in tanking U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, appear headed toward zero – and perhaps even below.
“I think that we have a real danger of deflation in the economy right now,” former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo last weekend.
Clearly, symptoms of deflation and leading indicators of economic contraction are now manifesting in dramatic ways:
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Small Cap Stocks Hold The Key To The Rest Of 2020 And Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Right before I had to undergo a surgery at the end of the first week of February, I began to pen an article regarding the potential bearish set up in IWM as a follow up to the bearish analysis I posted about EEM earlier that week entitled “Sentiment Speaks: Emerging Markets Look Sick.”
In fact, I have used the same title in this article which was intended for the bearish article I began writing in early February about IWM. Unfortunately, I got too busy to complete that article, but needless to say, the structure in IWM remained quite troubling as long as it maintained below 174.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign.
Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.
The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have been guiding investors through bull and bear markets since 1979. From that long experience, they know that at certain market junctures, they can help the most by giving everyone their latest analysis free.
Now is one of those market junctures.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market March and April 2020 Trend Forecast - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Key Support Levels for the S&P 500, Dow and TSX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The market sell-off continues to build as many investors believe more downside slippage is coming. Sells in mutual funds and individual stock portfolios, as reported, are reaching highs not seen since 2015.
Yet, many institutions are now positioning trades for the inevitable rebound.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) are showing a build-up of positions at certain key levels.
For the S&P 500, 2740 appears to be a mark where positions are being established. For the Dow, 23,500 and for the TSX,14,675 are being tested (Chart 1).
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Before Stock Market Sell-Off, This Indicator Posted Its "Largest 1-Day Jump" in 10 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
A revealing perspective on the stock market… and the "unexpected"
Most investors are surprised when a big trend turn occurs in the stock market.
A big reason why is because most market participants tend to linearly extrapolate the current trend into the future. Indeed, instead of getting cautious as a trend persists, they tend to do the opposite and ramp up their expectations. This applies during both down- and uptrends.
Let's first look at an example when the stock market had been in a major downtrend. As you'll recall, the market's last major bottom occurred in March 2009. The then bear market had been going on for 17 months.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Is The Stocks Bull Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Update - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks. But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study) Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
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