Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, March 07, 2022
Sanctions Threat Already Wipes Out Almost all Russian Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?
The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next?
A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown.
On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role.
Thursday, January 20, 2022
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs. What do you think are the main price drivers prevailing for this surge on crude oil prices?
Geopolitical Situation
Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs, as an attack on an oil site in Abu Dhabi further strained an already tense market. The concern about the deterioration of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has been occurring for several days, has been overtaken by the attack on the infrastructures of the United Arab Emirates. On Monday, an attack probably committed by drones blew up three tank trucks near the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)’s reservoirs.
Saturday, December 18, 2021
WTI & Brent Crude Oil – How Will Inflation Impact Energy Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence.
On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold.
Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel.
Sunday, November 28, 2021
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.
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Friday, November 05, 2021
Where is Crude Oil Price Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead?
Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production.
Friday, October 29, 2021
Shrinking US Crude Reserves Might Confirm the Trend Now! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, approaching multi-year highs amid concerns over steadily shrinking US crude reserves.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
What’s the price level exit for the black gold?
The new front month contract (as we switched now to Dec’21) for WTI Crude Oil futures closed the week at $82 per barrel on Friday (Oct. 15th).
Fundamentally, nothing seems to be able to stop, in the short term, the surge in crude oil prices which continued to rise on Friday amid concerns over supply, since the WTI hit a new high in almost seven years.
In addition, the slight decline of the US dollar may signify a more marked optimism of the markets in the perspectives of a gradual recovery of the global economy.
Sunday, October 17, 2021
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Falling oil demand and bearish US inventories are not of any good to WTI investors. However, a deeper slide might be a great place to enter the trade…
Fundamental Analysis
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its estimate of world oil demand for 2021. The demand has been lower than expected so far despite strong prospects for the end of the year.
In fact, in its monthly report, the cartel estimates that oil demand will rebound by 5.82 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, while it forecast 5.96 mb/d last month.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?
Fundamental Updates
The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.
The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!
Friday, September 03, 2021
Will Crude Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Supply and demand" does not always determine the price trend of crude oil
As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.
On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:
Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages
Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they "edged" higher.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Almost exactly a year ago, oil prices went negative $40.
Today, with crude trading at $60, you're hearing lots of opinions as to what's next.
"Electric car revolution" ... "reopening economy" ... "end of commute" ... "start of travel season"
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.
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Thursday, October 22, 2020
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An upward stepping GAP pattern for UNG and Natural Gas has our research team believing a strong upside price breakout may be pending. We believe the open gap patterns, which are below the current price levels, represent a building momentum based/bottom that has setup in UNG. This pattern, if we are correct, may prompt a big breakout move in the near future.
THREE GAPS PATTERN & MOMENTUM BASE COMPLETE – WHAT NEXT?
These GAP patterns are similar to a Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Three Gaps”. A Three Gaps pattern is typically associated with trending and suggests an exhaustion top may be near. It is represented by three very clear open price gaps in a defined trend (up or down), as can be seen in the chart below.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
CLEAR PRICE CHANNEL MAY PROMPT BIG BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN MOVE IN OIL
In this report, I discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation. Read below to learn more.
Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
China Ramps Up U.S. Crude Oil Imports As Elections Near / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.
This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters' Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters' Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.
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Sunday, September 20, 2020
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
At last, crude oil moved a bit higher, so you might be asking yourself if the trend has reversed or is this just a pause before the moves continue.
In short, we think the latter is much closer to the truth.
The fact remains that in a global and hyperconnected economy such as today, no market can sustain complete independence of the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile marketplace commodity, is not excluded from that reality.
Namely, the two markets that the black gold often looks up to the most are stocks and currencies. In today’s analysis, we’ll focus on the latter.
The black gold upswing has been relatively modest, and parallels with a similar pause in the USD Index. To validate this, let’s take a look at the following charts for more details.
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Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil – The Bearish Outlook Remains / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil declined quite substantially this week, and it doesn’t look that the decline will be over just yet.
After a given market clearly moves in a certain direction, corrective moves are bound to happen. After all, no market can move in a straight line up or down. But still, this assumption might be misleading in case of the current situation in black gold. Obviously, it is taking a breather right now after declining several dollars. But, that doesn’t mean that any sizeable rebound is going to happen.
As a matter of fact, based on how crude oil behaved before the decline, we believe that it’s going to slide even further.
In today’s globalized and interconnected economy, no market moves completely independently from the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile commodity in the market, is definitely not an exception.
Friday, September 11, 2020
Crude Oil Breaks Lower – Sparking Fears Of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets.
- Initial support likely near $32 to $33.
- Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020.
Have you been paying attention to Crude Oil recently? Prices have collapsed over -15% from the recent highs near $43.78. You may remember a research article I posted originally in July 2019 suggesting a big breakdown in Crude Oil was going to take place in early 2020 and extreme volatility was likely between February 2020 and April 2020. Our researchers predicted the following within that research article:
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.
Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.
We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.
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Sunday, July 12, 2020
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dylan_Moran
Oil is a commodity that plays an indisputable role in the global economy. At the start of the 20th century, the oil industry went into mass production, thus giving birth to what we refer to as the modern era of oil consumption. Gradually, coal was starting to take a backseat to it and oil became the world’s #1 fuel source and the undisputed king of commodity trading.
To this very day, this remains unchanged. The only question is, what drives the prices of oil?
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