Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, February 09, 2018
Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The stock market is a dangerous place to be right now. Watching VIX spiked from 17 to 50+ then crashing back to 30 within two days can certainly cause a cardiac arrest or two. What’s even worse is that investors took this little dip as a buying opportunity throwing more good money at this deformed market. On Tuesday U.S. stocks rebounded to post the biggest rally in 15 months. We have discussed many times that stocks have a long way to go before any normalcy may be restored. On that note, let’s move to the oil/gasoline market instead.
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market.
The steady decline of the U.S. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks, but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday.
At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. Volatility in the stock market flared up on Friday, sparking the sharpest single-day upheaval in years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Why Is The Shale Oil Industry Still Not Profitable? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Echoing the criticism of too much hype surrounding U.S. shale from the Saudi oil minister last week, a new report finds that shale drilling is still largely not profitable. Not only that, but costs are on the rise and drillers are pursuing “irrational production.”
Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital dug into the financials of a long list of U.S. shale companies, and found that “despite rising prices most firms under our study are still in losses with no signs of improvement.” The average return on asset for U.S. shale companies “is still a measly 0.8 percent,” the financial services company wrote in its report.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 26, 2018
What Could Push Crude Oil To $100? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019.
According to Energy Aspects, the reason for the further jump in prices will be a drop in new production outside the U.S. shale patch. It’s a little hard to buy that, however, if one remembers that there is 1.8 million bpd in production capacity ready to be tapped again once OEPC and Russia taper their production cuts. That alone should take care of the demand growth that the consultancy predicts for this year. That is, unless it booms by 2 million bpd, which is the top of the range forecast by Energy Aspects. But even then, the U.S. and Russia alone could take care of it: The Russian state majors are itching to expand production in eastern Siberia.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 22, 2018
Who Will Take Control in Crude Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although the EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories dropped for a ninth straight week and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected, U.S. production outweighed positive news. But did yesterday price action change anything in the technical picture of black gold?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil hit a fresh 2018 high of $64.89, but then reversed and declined very quickly, erasing most of Friday increase. What encouraged oil bears to act and how did this decline affect the short-term picture?
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil output is expected to continue its rise to 6.55 million barrels per day (with production from shale rising by 111,000 bpd) in the coming month, which encouraged oil bears to act. As a reminder, before the Friday market closure, they received one more reason to act – the Baker Hughes report, which showed that the oil rig count jumped by 10 to 752 (to the highest level since the beginning of September 2017). What impact did the above-mentioned circumstances have on the daily chart of crude oil?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Crude oil is starting out strong in 2018 as both the international Brent benchmark and the West Texas Intermediate continue to book price gains. The gains in crude oil prices this year is riding the waves of the uptrend in oil prices that began in 2017. Now, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate is trading up around $63.57 per barrel and the Brent crude is trading up around $69.20 per barrel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Why Oil Should Be Supported in Weekly Chart / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Hello fellow traders, in this blog post, we will discuss oil in a more bigger picture.
In the chart below, you can see crude oil futures on the weekly chart.
From the 02/08/2016 low, we can clearly see that the market has a potential 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence. It seems like that it is still in the fifth swing. The weekly target for us is between 68.53-86.82. Please note a 5 swing sequence is different than 5 waves impulse. Overall, we can conclude that we need more upside in oil and we suggest members to buy the instrument in 3-7-11 swings to the upside.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Traders for Light crude oil continue to see higher price levels over the near term. Front-month futures prices reflect their bullish outlook (chart 1).
The expectation is for $63 to $65 per barrel by late Q1.
The one caveat is that U.S. production appears set to explode later this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 01, 2018
Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 18, 2017
Who Knows What Will Black Gold Do in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, crude oil moved a bit higher as oil investors turned their attention to the North Sea supply disruption. Although the price of black gold increased, the technical picture of the commodity doesn’t bode well for oil bulls. Why? We invite you to check our Oil Trading Alert. Have a nice read.
Yesterday, crude oil came back above $57 as oil investors focused on the Forties pipeline, which carries North Sea oil to Britain. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the above-mentioned disruptions will physically mostly affect the North Sea region. In other words, we think that the shale drilling and the last week increase in the U.S. production (which approached the output levels of top producers - Russia and Saudi Arabia) are more important for the price of light crude. Therefore, in our opinion, it is worth waiting for today's Baker Hughes report before we get excited about yesterday's increase and its “bullish” implications. Having said that, let’s examine the technical picture of crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 14, 2017
WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Science Investing writes:
Short Term Price Trend
WTI crude oil started a bullish trend in June 2017. We forecast further upside in the crude oil complex.
For the past month we’ve witnessed a sideways movement in the WTI. It may have traced out a triangle pattern. The move from the 24th of November top looks complex, which is typical for a C-wave of a triangle. Triangles typically resolve into the direction of the greater trend. Hence we forecast price action to the upside short term.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 07, 2017
The One Oil Market Indicator OPEC Must Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.
OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 07, 2017
Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and Invalidation of Breakouts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finally closed another day under the upper border of the short-term rising trend channel. Will this show of oil bulls’ weakness trigger further deterioration in the coming days? Will the relationship between black gold and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?
Wednesday, December 06, 2017
Crude Oil and Negative Divergences / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil increased and approached the November peak, but did this increase change anything in the broader perspective? Is it possible that the non-USD chart of crude oil give us more clues about black gold future moves?
Tuesday, December 05, 2017
Geopolitical Risk Isn’t Driving Rising Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
By GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND XANDER SNYDER : At the end of October, Brent crude prices crossed $60 per barrel for the first time in two years. They peaked at around $64.
Experts explained the spike with vague references to “geopolitical risk,” without really detailing what those risks entailed. Such explanations are not wrong, but they are careless.
A proper geopolitical risk assessment goes beyond vague wording. It contains a deep understanding of relevant economic, political, and military factors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
The Oil Information Cartel Is (Finally) Broken / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
By Keith Schaefer : The below article was written by Keith Schaefer of Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin
A determined James Stafford of OilPrice.com just busted wide open an oil industry information cartel that has existed for decades.
Most investors look at WTI and Brent prices at Bloomberg or CME Futures, and figure the oil price is in the public domain. You would be about 2 percent correct, because there are hundreds of different grades of oil, and hubs where it is bought and sold. And they all have different prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Tech Breakthrough Could Transform The Oil Sector / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
...
Monday, November 27, 2017
OPEC Will Extend The Production Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
There will be an OPEC deal extension—no matter the public tussling between opposing forces in the industry cartel—if the world's largest oil producers are really determined to end the supply glut.
A failure to agree on the market remediation would cause oil prices to plummet immediately, forfeiting any gains that have been made in the last year.
Saudi Arabia needs $60 per barrel for its Aramco initial public offering to be a success in the second half of next year. It plans to sell just five percent of its prized company in the largest IPO in financial history, but a low price could force the country to sell a larger share, siphoning off government revenues at a time of strained budgets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 20, 2017
Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...