Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.
Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.
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Saturday, May 12, 2018
Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.
- By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not. The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
- The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Friday, May 11, 2018
Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Science_Investing
From A Technical Analysis PerspectiveCrude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
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Saturday, April 21, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range for March which set the scene for the current rally to a 3 year high of $69. Whilst new has emerged that the Saudi's are actively pursuing lifting the oil price to at least $80 in support of their mega $1 trillion+ ARAMCO IPO.
Friday, April 20, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range.
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Wednesday, April 18, 2018
The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.
Geopolitical events specifically could help keep Brent above $70 through April and May, which comes on the back of a substantial decline in oil inventories.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
A fresh 2018 high, an unbroken resistance and negative divergence. What does this interesting mix tell us about oil bull’s strength and further increases?
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
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Saturday, April 14, 2018
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: WMA
In all asset classes, following a major bear market, prices tend to stumble along at depressed levels – sometimes for years. Negative sentiment permeates across all types of investors, from the short-term traders to long-term retail investors. Once everyone is convinced that the paradigm has changed for the asset and prices at depressed levels are the “new normal”, the seeds will have been sown for the next bull market.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
Crude Oil Price Bears - Stay the Course / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
What a day! The beginning of the new quarter, the new month and the new week was undoubtedly the triumph of oil bears. Thanks to their attack crude oil lost almost 3% in one day, which was the biggest decline since weeks. What impact did this drop have on the short-term outlook? Where are the nearest supports? For these and other questions you will find answers in today's alert.
Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Crude Oil Price Rally Is Likely / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week before jumping close to multi-year highs on geopolitical concerns, with Brent hitting $70 and WTI at $65. However, geopolitical pressure is only able to influence oil prices to such a degree because the market is fundamentally getting tighter.
Ongoing declines in Venezuela and concerns about heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran have significantly raised the risk premium for oil, even as some short-term factors recently pushed up prices.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Oil Prices Vs. Production: See the "Elephant" Almost Everyone Ignores / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
If production drives prices, how does oil rise 14x when production trends sideways for 10 years?
There's a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.
If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil's price.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Petroyuan and Gold - The Single Biggest Change in Capital Markets of All Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“China’s launch on Monday of its crude futures exchange will improve the clout of the yuan in financial markets and could threaten the international primacy of the dollar, argues a new report by Hayden Briscoe, APAC head of fixed income at UBS Asset Management. ‘This is the single biggest change in capital markets, maybe of all time,’ Briscoe said in a follow-up telephone interview.” – Kate Duguid, Reuters, 3-26-2018
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Friday, March 16, 2018
Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?
Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil – It Smells Like… Profits / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although oil bulls pushed black gold higher after yesterday market’s open, their triumph was very short-lived. Looking at the daily chart, it even tempts to say that their rally took place on an empty tank. Why? Because thanks to yesterday’s decline oil bears not only made short positions more profitable, but also gained next pieces to their puzzle. Let's check them together in today's alert.
Today's alert will start a little differently than usual, because we will take you on a small journey to the past and we’ll recall the quote from our Oil Trading Alert posted on Friday:
(…) In our opinion, the pro-bearish scenario is also reinforced by the fundamental factors. (…) EIA data showed that the U.S. output remains above 10 million barrels per day, which keeps domestic production on track to meet the earlier estimate for an increase to 11 million barrels per day in late 2018. If American drillers will not let down, the U.S. will overtake Russia in crude oil production and become the largest global supplier. Such development will likely not please Saudi Arabia and may thwart OPEC efforts to reduce black gold’s stockpiles, increasing worries over another crude oil glut. In such an environment oil bulls could have problems keeping the price not only above $60, but also above the psychological barrier of $50.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!
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Friday, February 23, 2018
Relationship Between Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar in February 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Thursday, the price of black gold moved higher after the EIA weekly report showed an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories. Is this one bullish factor strong enough to push light crude higher in the following days? What did the buyers miss?
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories declined by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, beating expectations for a gain of around 1.8 million barrels. This first in four weeks decline in crude oil stocks in combination with a smaller than expected increase in gasoline inventories and drop in distillates supplies encouraged oil bulls to act. As a result, the price of black gold climbed to an intraday high slightly above $63, but did this increase change the short-term outlook for crude oil?
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Saturday, February 17, 2018
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: WMA
There are indications Crude Oil prices are going lower. There are also indications that it’s going higher. Which narrative do you believe?
Oil Bears point to what they believe is over-supply caused by soaring US production, mostly from shale fields. With production increasing over +20% in less than two years, and drill rigs on the rise, the US now produces about as much Oil as the industry leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the Oil Bears, the Saudi-Russia pact to restrain global production and export levels will break down in 2018, thereby leading to more supply than demand, causing lower prices. Moreover, the Bears are confident that alternative energy supply (e.g., solar/battery and uranium) will eventually win out as it is a cheaper and cleaner power source, and that Electric Vehicles are increasingly favored by consumers.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Monday, oil bulls extended gains after Friday's invalidation of the breakout, which together with the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator suggest further improvement. A least at the first sight. But does watching the room through the keyhole give us a full picture of what's inside? We also think so, therefore, we invite you to analyze a broader picture of crude oil.
Let’s analyze the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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