Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.
The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher. The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.
This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system. The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak. We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Attempt to Repair Yesterday’s Damage / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We have seen a pretty sharp oil reversal yesterday. The U.S. session sent oil bulls packing. Not giving up, they’re attempting a comeback today. Geopolitical news to their rescue: the drone attacks on key Saudi pipelines. Emboldened by this tailwind, do the oil bulls stand a chance of reversing the tide of recent declines?
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Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Do the Crude Oil Bulls Have Any Aces Left Up Their Sleeves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil has had an eventful session yesterday. It has closed the opening gap and the bulls have been building upon their gains till the session’s close. Earlier today however, the price appears to be rolling over and heading south. Is all hope for higher oil lost? The bulls have shown to be quite tireless. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats shortly?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Can Saudi Arabia Still Sway The Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC's largest producer, has influenced the oil market and oil flows since the middle of the 20th century.
Shortly after the 21st century began, one of Saudi Arabia's key customers made its first steps toward becoming one of the Kingdom's main competitors on the global oil market: the United States began fracking for oil in the mid-2000s. By the end of the 2010s, the U.S. is now the world's biggest crude oil producer, having surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to claim the crown.
Sure, Saudi Arabia is one of the most important factors in global crude trade and oil market participants are lapping up every word and hint from the top oil officials in the Kingdom.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase. In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span. Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change. But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.
This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices jumped to five-month highs this week, pushed higher by a bullish cocktail of supply outages, geopolitical unrest and a sputtering shale sector.
The most recent factor is the sudden eruption of the long simmering feud in Libya between rival factions. The attack on Tripoli by the Libyan National Army (LNA), a militia led by Khalifa Haftar, led to a spike in oil prices on Monday as the market priced in the possibility of supply outages.
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Sunday, March 17, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The oil bull still managed to score another day of gains yesterday. A meager advance but still an advance, one could say. And be forgiven, as they would not have had examined the full picture. Are we just teasing you now? Come on, there can’t be possibly more to the story... There is. The scenario that we wrote about exactly to the day two weeks ago, has come to fruition. The implications are far-reaching. Time to share.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
- There is a sense of triumphalism in the tag-line, “U.S.A. is now a net oil exporter”. Reminiscent of “Mission Accomplished”; first it’s not true, second; what’s hiding in the wings is sinister.
- In February, in the Permian, Initial Production net Legacy-Loss (IPnL), which measures change in production capacity, was down 42% on the peak in May 2018
- 98.5% of changes in IPnL can be explained by changes in trailing average oil price. That sounds blindingly obvious; but there’s a catch.
- Shale oil output-growth affects oil prices; so there’s negative feedback-loop. What happened was legacy-loss in shale caught up, shale is still a “swing producer”; but soon they will need $70 WTI.
- Ten years ago the Saudi’s said $70-to-$80 Brent was “fair”, that’s what the world could afford, and what producers needed to bring in new oil, they said. They may get that, and more, soon.
Saturday, March 02, 2019
Is the Worst Behind for Crude Oil Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil made yesterday another hesitant move higher. Also yesterday, we mentioned here the saying regarding gravity. Sometimes, it takes patience for the underlying forces to win out. Or, doesn't the oil market rather remind you more of a coiled spring actually? Accordingly, what is the position favored most by the odds right now?
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Crude Oil – The Ground Is Starting to Shake / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday we witnessed a good attempt to move to the downside. The sellers were partially rebutted. How did the big picture stand the test of yesterday and what are we to do about it?
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Crude Oil – How Many Minutes to Midnight Before We Act? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, some might have wondered where is the limit to the upswing in oil. It would be natural to expect it to catch up to e.g. gold and silver upswings. Would be, could be. We just saw something that made us act. Diligently, with foresight and confidence – when the odds are with us. It’s time to share it with you.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Oil Majors Near Inflection Point As Spending Rises / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices are still down sharply from the highs of October 2018, but the industry may still increase spending this year. The cost of developing new projects might rise along with higher spending levels.
A survey of top industry executives by DNV GL suggests that capital spending on oil and gas could rise in 2019. Of the 791 senior professionals in the energy industry surveyed by DNV GL, 70 percent said they plan on either maintaining or increasing capex this year. That is up significantly from the 39 percent who said the same in 2017.
“Despite greater oil price volatility in recent months, our research shows that the sector appears confident in its ability to better cope with market instability and long-term lower oil and gas prices,” said Liv Hovem, the head of DNV’s oil and gas division, according to Reuters. “For the most part, industry leaders now appear to be positive that growth can be achieved after several difficult years.”
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins. Our researchers at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Saudi Arabia Warns: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia isn’t buying the peak oil demand narrative.
OPEC’s largest producer continues to expect global oil demand to keep rising at least by 2040 and sees itself as the oil producer best equipped to continue meeting that demand, thanks to its very low production costs.
Saudi Arabia will be the one to pump the last barrel of oil in the world, but it doesn’t see the ‘last barrel of oil’ being pumped for decades and decades to come.
“I don’t see peak [oil] demand happening in 10 years or even by 2040,” Amin Nasser, president and chief executive officer of Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco told CNN Business’ Emerging Markets Editor John Defterios on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.
The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.
You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.
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Friday, January 04, 2019
Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading.
The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
I don’t blame you.The yields on energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) are very tempting.
If you’re not sure what these are, energy MLPs are companies that own the pipelines that transport oil and natural gas around the US.
And they often pay huge dividend yields. The top five oil MLPs have an average dividend yield of 5.3%. That’s more than twice the S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.9%.
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