Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Single Largest Driver of the US Economy is About to Collapse / Economics / US Economy
By: Graham_Summers
The markets continue their dead cat bounce while the economic data worsens.
First quarter US GDP was revised down from an annual rate of 2.4% to 1.8%. The drop was due to lower personal consumption expenditures than initially forecast.
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Thursday, June 27, 2013
How to Survive Hyperinflation - When Prices Double Every Day and a Half / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Don_Miller
What does life actually look like when your country and its currency collapse? In a recent Casey Daily Dispatch, two guest columnists – one from Zimbabwe and another from Bosnia – shared their respective feats of survival amid the horrors of hyperinflation and civil unrest. Sadly, their stories are not outliers. During my lifetime, far too many societies have reverted to barter, theft, and gang rule.
With Cyprus' volatile banking situation back in March and central banks in Europe, Japan, and the US printing money faster than Superman can fly, we have to stop and think: Just how safe are we, really?
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Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Current U.S. Economic Climate According to The Prince of Darkness / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
As long-time readers know, I have a very eclectic group of friends and associates. Colorful, opinionated, generally both fun and funny, they make for interesting times and discussions wherever I go. I am not certain why they associate with such a mild-mannered, soft-spoken, Muddle-Through Texan like me, but most agree that I am at least good for comic relief. Next week I will be in the midst of some unabashed bulls, but today I offer up for your reading pleasure a note from a friend who is on the Dark Side of the fence, though he is hardly what you could call a conventional bear. He is Rich Yamarone, Chief Economist for Bloomberg.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Without Knowledge of the Past There is No Future / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Wim Grommen writes: Current problems associated with the end of the third industrial revolution
Humanity is being confronted with the same problems as those at the end of the second industrial revolution such as decreasing stock exchange rates, highly increasing unemployment, towering debts of companies and governments and bad financial positions of banks. Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process, a transition.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Deflation By Any Other Name Would Smell As Foul / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Over the past two weeks or so, we've been seeing a very clear portrait of how sick our economies are. Not that you would know it from reading the press. The term deflation pops up only very cautiously. Could that be because people don't understand what's going on? Or are they simply afraid of the word? This is the real thing, guys. And it's going to hurt.
Money (actually: credit) has shifted out of emerging markets by the trillions. So where did it go? Not into bonds, stocks or precious metals. Money shifted out of there too, and also by the trillions. Money isn't going anywhere, it's going "poof". It's vanishing and will never be seen again.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
The Deflationist Error / Economics / Deflation
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Many people believe there is a significant risk that the Irving Fisher debt-deflation theory of great depressions is still an economic threat today. They overlook the fact that Fisher published his theory examining debt-deflation events under a gold standard, which does not apply today. Financial credit contractions therefore take a different appearance.
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Sunday, June 23, 2013
Keynes And The Cult Of Economic Doom / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
FERGUSON APOLOGIZES
Iconic history don and bestselling author Niall Ferguson apologised "unreservedly" for "stupid and tactless" remarks in which he implied that John Maynard Keynes did not care about future generations – “in the long run we are all dead” - because Keynes was a childless homosexual. As we know to our present and future cost, Keynes was more concerned about ultra low short-term interest rates and vast government handouts, financed by borrowing. Ferguson claims his disagreement with Keynes, his opposition to deficit spending and the economic philosophy called “Keynesianism” was nothing to do with Keynes' sexual orientation. Ferguson said his real point was: “The point I had made in my presentation was that in the long run our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren are alive and will have to deal with the consequences of our economic actions." On that score we can only agree.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
France On its Way to Becoming the New Greece / Economics / France
By: John_Mauldin
The France that I see as I look out from the bullet train today is far different from the France I see when I survey the economic data. Going from Marseilles to Paris, the countryside is magnificent. The farms are laid out as if by a landscape artist – this is not the hurly-burly no-nonsense look of the Texas landscape. The mountains and forests that we glide through are glorious. It is a weekend of special music all over France, and last night in Marseilles the stages were alive and the crowds out in force. The French people smile and graciously correct my pidgin attempts at speaking French. I have found it diplomatic not to mention that I think France is in for a very difficult future. Why spoil the party?
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Is GDP Economic Growth a Hoax? What are they Hiding? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
There is always an assurance from our Government that the economy is doing fine, jobs are recovering, wages are going up and prices are under control. We are never been told what actually happened behind the scene or problems our economy is facing. Through propaganda by the media we are persuaded that everything is in the safe hands of the Government.
Even when economies around us are collapsing we are led to believe that our economy is the strongest, our share market is the best performing, our economic fundamentals are the best or in short we are the best managed economy. We are given the impression that our economy is ‘invincible and different from others’. But the problem is whether our economy is living up to what was preached by our Government. Is there a way to gauge the real performance of our economy other than relying on figures published by them?
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Wednesday, June 19, 2013
China's Innovation Hurdle Points to Withering Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even more China. I have been watching China for a long time, expecting a crisis, as I readily admit I simply do not understand a country that has defied so many of the economic laws of gravity for so long. Some kind of return to normal economic paradigms seems almost mandated, but the question has always been when. Have the Chinese discovered some new control mechanism, found some different levers to pull that they should share with the rest of the world, or will we see them revert to something that looks more like whatever it is that passes for "normal" these days? My bet has always been the latter.
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Revenge of the Minsky Moment, Economists Are Still Clueless / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again. - John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform
There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present. - John Kenneth Galbraith
Hitler must have been rather loosely educated, not having learned the lesson of Napoleon's autumn advance on Moscow. - Sir Winston Churchill
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Friday, June 14, 2013
France’s Economic Cul-De-Sac / Economics / France
By: David_Howden
Over a year ago, in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis, François Hollande celebrated his victory over Nicolas Sarkozy in France’s presidential elections. Hollande became the leader of a country in economic turmoil. In the past year, he has had relatively free rein to carry out his economic agenda, since the Socialist Party he leads has a majority in the French Parliament.
Friday, June 14, 2013
What's Going on with Inflation Today... and What to Do About It / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Every month, about 300,000 Americans celebrate their 65th birthday. This is the age most of us think of when we hear "retirement."
The arch nemesis of those newly minted retirees is inflation.
Most folks looking to retire need safe investment income. This traditionally comes from owning bonds, which pay a fixed rate. But if your income stream is fixed... and the price of goods and services shoots higher... your cash stream is worth less. If you're relying on that income for your retirement, you could be in trouble.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Iran’s Inflation Bogey / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
With Friday’s Iranian Presidential election fast approaching, there has been a cascade of reportage in the popular press about that opaque country. When it comes to economic data, Iran has resorted to lying, spinning and concealment – in part, because of its mores and history, and more recently, the ever-tightening international sanctions regime. In short, deception has been the order of the day.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
S&P Credit Ratings Agency Upgrades U.S. Economic Outlook - Wrong Again! / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
If you're not familiar with the term "putting lipstick on a pig," well I think there is an apt example at play again from the people who seem to be experts at applying the lipstick.
Standard and Poor's this week raised the outlook for the U.S. credit rating from "negative" to "stable," citing reduced fiscal risks and policymakers' willingness to sustain growth.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
What’s Really Holding Back the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: There continues to be much speculation over when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its asset purchase program and lower the level of monetary stimulus. The biggest concern for both the Federal Reserve and the nation is the level of job creation.
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly report on the level of non-farm job creation, which was as expected: neither too hot nor too cold, with a total of 175,000 new jobs created for the month of May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2013.)
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
The Risk of Government Economic Policies and the Rationing of Retirement / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In addition to our own, there is another conference I normally go to every spring; but sadly, I missed it this year. Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates indulges me and lets me attend the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel he conducts at some exclusive location (usually but not always) in Southern California, in close proximity to one or more fabulous gourmet establishments. And he is an oenophile of the first rank, a pastime that at one time in my life was a huge attraction. I now just live vicariously when he orders wine.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Is Japan's Economy Heading for Another Lost Decade? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
Recently various commentators have been warning Euro-zone policymakers that they needed to boost stimulus policies in order to avoid a Japanese-style lost decade. To support their case, they point to the years 1991 to 2000. The average growth of real GDP in Japan during that period stood at 1.2 percent versus the average growth of 4.7 percent during 1980 to 1990. In terms of industrial production, the average growth stood at 0.1 percent versus 4.1 percent.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Is Economic Austerity Responsible for the Crisis in Europe? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: MISES
Martin Masse writes: Most European economies have been in recession, or close to it, since the beginning of 2012. Unemployment rates are reaching record highs. Meanwhile, a debate has been raging about the deleterious effects of “austerity” measures. Various heads of government, finance ministers, and European Union officials have declared that austerity has gone too far and is preventing a recovery.
Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman are seeing this as unassailable proof that stimulus policies adopted when the financial crisis started in 2008-09 should never have been reversed and replaced by austerity measures, notwithstanding the explosion of public debt that they entailed.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
The Nonsense Behind State Economic Intervention / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Both Keynesians and monetarists believe that increased government spending, or more money injected into the economy, is sometimes necessary. The intervention is in the form of unfunded government spending, artificially low interest rates to boost demand for money and bank credit, or a drive to make the currency “competitive” by lowering it. These methods have been tried unsuccessfully time and again, and they must be denounced if we are to understand our true economic condition.
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