Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
The Easy Money Path to Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Due to family illness, this week's letter will be shorter than usual but all the more powerful. This week we re-visit the scenario used for the Occasional Letter series as another milestone is passed.
The Scenario: bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.....Deflation.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Global Economic Slowdown in Stagflationary Environment / Economics / Stagflation
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading indicators – premature to rule out recession “The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved up 0.1% in April, matching the increase seen in March. The two consecutive monthly gains of the index follow five consecutive monthly declines. The spokesperson from the Conference Board indicated that the index is indicative of weak economic conditions but ruled out the possibility of a recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Economic Statistics Con Game to be Exposed, Bigger Impact than Housing Bust / Economics / Recession
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Soaring oil prices were mostly to blame for the past week's stock market sell-off, but renewed concerns about US economic growth, corporate earnings and mounting angst about inflation pressures also featured prominently in determining the market's fate.
David Fuller ( Fullermoney ) commented as follows: “As the world's most important commodity by far, this surge in the oil price is bearish for the majority of stock markets. Consequently I would assume that rallies seen since March have either been capped or are unlikely to make much upward progress until investors see evidence that crude oil has commenced a medium-term correction.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
US Dollar Crisis Not Oil Crisis / Economics / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
It's unfortunate that the Supreme Court, in its ruling this week that U.S. currency is unfair to the blind, did not make the next logical step and declare it unfair to everyone who buys gasoline.
In their search for explanations as to why oil has surged past $130 per barrel, Washington, Wall Street, and the financial media are as clueless as cavemen after a freak summer snow storm.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
Financial Markets Behind the Curve as Consumer Spending Acts as Leading Economic Indicator / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The past two quarters have seen anemic 0.6% rates of growth and we expect that personal consumption for the advance Q1'08 growth report will advance 1.0%, which would be the weakest three months of personal consumption since the beginning of the 2001 recession.
The primary catalyst behind the subpar performance has been the steep increase in headline costs. The price of domestically produced gasoline has increased 20.7% and the cost of food has risen 5.1% over the past year. This has eroded what little increase in wages that consumers have seen as the business cycle has come to an end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Iceland Facing Meltdown as the Credit Crunch Sinks its Currency / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Despite rising fast financially in the past few years, Iceland is feeling the chilly effects of the global credit crunch - so much so the fiercely independent island nation is considering European Union membership to save its tanking currency. A special report, jointly developed by U.K. affiliate MoneyWeek Magazine and our experts here at Money Morning, explores the pros and cons of Iceland's potential EU membership. For more information on MoneyWeek, please click here . Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up nearly 1% (up $8.25 to $927.80) and silver up 2% (up $0.35 to $17.97). Gold continued to rally in Asia but has succumbed to some profit taking in early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $135) again this morning and oil remains near these record levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
UK Inflation Heading Back to 2%- What's Mervyn King Smoking? / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The fiat-money experiment – along with the financial life-forms and hallucinations it spawned – has broken out of the lab and onto the street..."
WHEN ALBERT HOFMANN – the Swiss chemist who discovered LSD – passed away at the start of this month, newspaper editors the world over reported it as the death of the man "who experienced the first ever bad trip."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
China Now Exporting Inflation Abroad / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Most of us have been waiting for higher inflation to erupt on the scene for some time. Government statisticians have been able to avoid the reality of market place. How many million words have been written on these web sites on nonsense of core inflation? Simplistic nature of that measure, which ignores developments in prices for oil and Agri-Food, is about to come back to haunt those policy makers that have hidden behind it. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Getting Real with GDP and Government Inflation Adjustments / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
With the release of last week's Consumer Price inflation numbers, the debate over the accuracy of the government's reported Consumer Price Index data was once again front and center. The official numbers showed that the overall rate of consumer inflation rose .2% while the over-hyped core rate rose just a paltry .1%.
However, these incredible April numbers were the result of a seasonal adjustment that removed much of the increase in gasoline prices. Unbelievably, the report claimed that consumer's energy costs were unchanged while the actual price of crude oil rose about 12.5% and gas prices rose 11% during the same period in question—that's some adjustment!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Inflation and Interest Rates at Forefront of this Weeks Economic Data / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: William_Patalon_III
You can bet there will be a lot of discussion about interest rates this week, thanks to the release of the producer price index (PPI) report tomorrow (Tuesday) and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday.
The PPI report will undoubtedly rekindle the inflation-versus-recession debate (with more than a few comments about stagflation thrown in for good measure).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Is the Australian Economy Heading for Recession? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
The situation could become very nasty for the Australian economy. For years I have been warning that the Reserve Bank's reckless monetary policy would eventually end in tears. Since March 1996 bank deposits have risen by more that 224 per cent and M1 by 200 per cent. Regardless of views to the contrary, Australia cannot continue to escape the consequences of the Reserve's delinquency. Glenn Stevens " the Reserve's governor " recently made it clear that he wants to slow aggregate demand, reducing it to a rate that is "significantly slower than it was in 2007".Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
The Fed at Interest Rate Crossroads Between Inflation and Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- Retail Sales Take a Dive
- Accounting for Inflation
- The Fed at the Crossroads
- Sell in May and Go Away
Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can find a clue or two to give us an idea of the direction of the economy. There is a lot of data, so let's jump right in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Unemployment Rate: What Is The Real Story? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
If you have been reading my essays, you know I firmly believe the United States Department of Labor (DOL), Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) understates the rate of inflation (see: CPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics). You also know that a low Rate Of Inflation means that the Department of Commerce (DOC), Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) overstates “Real” Gross Domestic product (see: “American GDP: Can We Trust The BEA Data?” and: “Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession.”). Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Offical Fairytale Inflation Statistics / Economics / Inflation
By: Andy_Sutton
Someone ought to consider changing the calendar. Maybe adding a few extra days so that next month the shock of double-digit annualized increases in import prices can wear off before we're told there is actually no consumer price inflation. The mainstream financial press quickly leapt onto the bandwagon with headlines such as “Inflation remains tame”, “Consumer prices stable” or the most ridiculous, “High Gas prices aren't affecting consumers”. I couldn't help but wonder what planet these folks are living on. It certainly isn't this one. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
China's Strong Currency Solution to Consumer Spending and Inflation / Economics / China Currency Yuan
By: Peter_Schiff
As China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape. This week, several key Chinese officials, typically not known for their candor, conspicuously noted the need to both stimulate domestic consumer spending and bring down roaring inflation. While at first blush these two goals might appear mutually exclusive, China's leaders do have a magic bullet that can hit both targets at once. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Devalue US Debt Through Inflation? Three Lessons from History / Economics / US Debt
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Might the scam work? Can the United States really settle its debt with devalued dollars, free of all historical fall-out...?"
"WE CAN PAY ANYBODY by running a printing press," said Thomas Gale Moore, one of Ronald Reagan's economic advisors, when the United States became a net debtor to its foreign investors in 1986.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
California Leads Way For the US Consumer Bust / Economics / Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
The International Herald Tribune reports Californians leading the way to consumer bust .
As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust.
Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Rampant Money Supply Growth and Inflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Zeal_LLC
Due to all kinds of prices rising to levels that would have seemed inconceivable only a few years ago, inflation concerns are mushrooming today. And if there is anyone still not worried about inflation yet, they soon will be. Rising food and energy costs really affect the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet.
But inflation is woefully misunderstood, even among financially-sophisticated folks who should know better. I've heard Chairmen of the Federal Reserve, elite Wall Street analysts, and countless news-media personalities claim rising prices are inflation . This common misperception is flat-out wrong. Rising prices alone are not necessarily inflation. Inflation is purely and exclusively a monetary phenomenon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Policy to Continue to Drive the Dollar Lower / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The interesting and generally questionable conclusions in the April consumer price report provided a false sense of comfort in global financial markets that we believe will be temporary. The finding that the cost of domestic gasoline fell -2.0% month over month during a time when prices at the pump soared well above $4.0 per gallon in many areas was behind the modest official increase in the cost of living for the month. However, savvy market participants that follow the inflation data closely understand that the seasonal adjustments often tend to overshoot the true nature of the data and are prone to monthly revisions. We expect that the data in the coming months will be revised to reflect the reality of what is occurring in the price environment. Read full article... Read full article...