Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Deflation Misconceptions and Inflationary Parabolic Money Supply Growth / Economics / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
Late 2008's stock panic has certainly had a complex and multifaceted impact on popular psychology. Mindsets and outlooks that were scoffed at as recently as 6 months ago have suddenly become fashionable. One of the more intriguing is the meteoric rise to prominence of the deflation thesis.
The growing legions of deflationists see an unstoppable depression-like deflationary spiral approaching like a freight train. They cite some convincing data. The stock markets have been cut in half in just a year. In the past 6 months, some key commodities prices fell farther and faster than they did in the entire Great Depression. House prices are down by double digits across the nation, with no bottom in sight. And credit is a lot harder to come by today than in any other time in modern memory.
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Friday, January 23, 2009
Economic Depression 2009 Will Not Prevent Inflation / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andy_Sutton
“Three Bears and a missing Goldilocks” - 2006 and 2007 were framed by financial pundits as a time when we could truly have the Goldilocks economy. Growth wouldn't be too fast or too slow, but just right. The Fed had both hands on the wheel and was goosing things just enough to keep the ship headed in the right direction. Of course all the while the same pundits chose to ignore raging inflation at the consumer level as energy and food prices headed for the stratosphere. The fall of energy prices has been spectacular, however, the drop in food prices has been virtually nonexistent. As in the story of Goldilocks, there were some bears who weren't too happy about Goldilocks and her plans for their porridge. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
Great Britain- The “Rust Belt” of Global Finance / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Think about Michigan or about Ohio's Mahoning Valley in the 1980s. Both were famous for industries that were world leaders in their time. Yet, once those industries decayed, large parts of both areas became wastelands of home foreclosures, crime and alcoholism.
The decline of the global financial services industry from its unsustainable 2006 peak may produce a similar effect in a once economically thriving country – Britain.
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Friday, January 23, 2009
Unemployment: How Do We Measure A Shortage Of Work? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
A Modest Proposal - According to the U. S. Department of Labor (DOL), employers cut 524,000 jobs in December, 2008. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 7.2%. That’s bad news for a struggling economy. Unemployed people have fewer spending options. They tend to buy only what they absolutely need. Food tops the list. Rent or mortgage payments come next. Then utility bills, emergency medical expenses, and money for transportation – most likely in the form of car or truck payments and fuel. Purchases of clothing, a new car, electronics, toys, and so on can be deferred. Savings erode all too quickly. Personal confidence ebbs. Family life is strained.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
German Economic Intervention Has No Limits / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Across the board, the 2009 economic news is bad for Germany. Unshipped goods and containers are piling up at the Hamburg port as Germany Faces Worst Post-War Economic Downturn .
Germany is facing its biggest economic decline since the Second World War with Chancellor Angela Merkel's government saying Wednesday it expects Europe's largest economy to contract by 2.25 per cent this year.
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Friday, January 23, 2009
The Great Fall of China / Economics / China Economy
By: Q1_Publishing
Earlier today, China announced its economy grew at a 6.8% in Q4. This is not very good news at all. China's GDP growth is inching perilously close to 6% economic growth. Which is viewed as the minimum to keep the lights on. It's a critical level the world is watching closely. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Why the Money Supply is Collapsing / Economics / Money Supply
By: Joseph_Toronto
Inflation and deflation are almost always monetary phenomena as are booms and busts, recessions and depressions. The current economic environment has surprised nearly everyone with the sharpness of the decline, it's suddenness and it's sheer ferocity. To better understand what is happening in the economy and how it began, I believe it is helpful to understand the nature of modern money and banking, and the central bank's role. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
British Pound Panic Selling, Counting Down to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Pound continued to plunge to new lows in response to the latest step taken by Gordon Brown in effectively bankrupting Britain to win the next election, which is to under-write the toxic bad debts with an another tax payer down payment of £200 billion. This is on top of the £800 billion already committed towards the bailout of the banking sector that began in September 2007 with the initial £2 billion emergency loan to Northern Rock Bank. As you can see we have come a long way from £2 billion in September 2007 to today's £1 trillion, a truly huge number that amounts to £34,000 per UK tax payer, how much will it cost Britain to service such a liability? This is still but the early stages of Britain's road to bankruptcy and currency collapse as my earlier analysis pointed out in November 2008 -
Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Why the Credit Crisis Bailouts Will Send Inflation Soaring / Economics / Inflation
By: Nick_Barisheff
The US financial crisis has now spread across the globe. Years of easy credit created massive asset bubbles in the housing and financial services sectors. As bond fund manager Bill Gross points out, there was “too much exuberant leverage, not enough regulation; too strong a belief in asset-based prosperity, too little common sense that prices could go down as well as up; excessive “me first” greed, too little concern for the burden of future generations.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Economic Failure and Corporate Earnings Collapse / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Oxbury_Research
"A massive paradigm shift away from everything we have known for all our lives to something we have read about in history books, with numerous twists; history never repeats itself but many times rhymes. As we have watched the credit crisis unfold over the last 2 years most peoples' lives have been largely unaffected as residual momentum and habits built up over decades haves crested and reversed, but now the slippery slope downward is set to accelerate VISCIOSLY." -Ty Andros Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Obama's $825 Billion Stimulus Against $20 Trillion Asset Price Deflation / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: John_Browne
Smaller Stimulus Leaves Room for Restructuring - As all recovery hopes are now pinned on the efficacy of Washington's next stimulus package, President Obama has opened the bidding at $825 billion. Most Republicans see this number as too big, and many Democrats see it as too small. If the question is one purely of impact, then under these circumstances, the Democrats are probably correct.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Economic & Financial Markets Outlook 2009, Part1: Nightmare on Main Street / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Ty_Andros
I remember growing up in Nebraska as a time of ups and downs that any child encounters growing up. Even though I was born in 1955, I was too young to be drafted into the Viet Nam war and my college years were very carefree as my parents were sending me through school to gather the tools that set the table to prosper and grow as I matured and aged. I was aware of the issues, but for the most part saw them on TV or in the news as an observer and student, safely tucked away in school and amongst friends. I am very grateful for what God has provided me to maneuver through the challenges of life. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The Collapse Of Capitalism and the Gold Safety Net / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
For Ponzi schemes to succeed, they must expand faster than the request for redemptions. If they do not, they will collapse. This is what happened to Bernard L Madoff Investment Services, the largest Ponzi scheme in history. The same is about to happen to capitalism.
Although capitalism is not a Ponzi scheme, credit-based economies, sic capitalism, and Ponzi schemes share the same fatal flaw. Both must constantly expand or they are in danger of collapse. Today, because capitalist economies are no longer expanding, but contracting, their continued contraction will lead to collapse.
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Wednesday, January 21, 2009
President Obama Faces Toughest Financial Challenges in U.S. History / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: When President-elect Barack Obama gets sworn into office as the nation's 44th chief executive this afternoon (Tuesday), he inherits a country that hasn't been this badly off financially since the Great Depression.
And President Obama can anticipate considerable sleep loss, for the recession-plagued U.S. economy and the accompanying financial crisis aren't even the only challenges his administration faces.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
End of Secular Consumer Bull Market Signals Ghost Shopping Malls / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: James_Quinn
Ghost Malls Coming to Your Town - The illustration of Old West ghost towns is something that every American can relate to. During the great gold rush of the mid 1800's in California, Nevada, and Wyoming towns sprung up out of nowhere to support the gold mining efforts of those looking to strike it rich. General stores, bars, hotels, brothels, and jails appeared out of nowhere based on demand from delusional prospectors hoping to hit the jackpot. Thousands of malls emerged throughout suburban America in the last twenty years as delusional shoppers thought they could spend their way to prosperity and achievement. Both delusions will end in the same manner. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Is it Deflation yet, or is Hyperinflation on the way? / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Toronto
Let's take a short detour to make sure we understand what inflation and deflation are. Milton Friedman, the father of the monetarist school of economics said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. This is usually explained to the layman as “too much money chasing too few goods.” Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
California Is Bankrupt! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In San Diego, Mayor Jerry Sanders is seeking cuts in services, fee hikes, and water rationing. Please consider A call to share the pain in San Diego
Mayor sees cut in services, fee hikes, water rationing
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Monday, January 19, 2009
Consumer Spending, Last Bastion of U.S. Economy In Full Retreat / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
In previous economic slowdowns, it was always consumer spending that kept the American economy afloat. Millions of Americans continued shopping at malls, buying cars, ordering gadgets through the mail and TV and otherwise putting their wallets and purses on the line. It was always the brave American consumer rushing unto the breach to beat off the demons of economic gloom and uncertainty. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
Hyperinflation Begining in China and Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
The conventional wisdom on China is dead wrong. Specifically, there is a widespread belief, as expressed by Goldman Sachs, that "China will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range in 2009 due concerns about exporters." Worse still, others are even predicting that China will devalue its currency! The sheer wishful thinking is astounding! The idea that "China will keep the dollar peg to help its exporters" ranks all the way up there with "Housing prices always go up" and "You can spend your way to prosperity". Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? Soft Depression? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: John_Mauldin
- The Endgame
- Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted
- Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got!
- Problem #1: Deflation
- Problem #2: Pushing on a String
- The Muddle Through Middle
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.
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