Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
BEA Revises Q2 2016 US GDP Growth Upward to 1.42% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.42%, up +0.33% from their previous estimate and up +0.59% from the prior quarter. Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.24% upward revision in commercial fixed investment. None of the other revisions were statistically significant.
Saturday, September 24, 2016
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.
Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let's also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.
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Friday, September 23, 2016
Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.
From Wikipedia:
Pluralistic ignorance
“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Japan’s Economy Impending Monetary Exhaustion / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock. Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes too high.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
U.S. Economy - We Can’t Party Like it’s 1999 / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
I came of age in the early ’80s, when Prince was king of the airwaves (pun intended). His smash hit “1999” had an end-of-days feel to it, asking everyone to “party like it’s 1999.”As time went on and the end of the century loomed, the world grew nervous about what would happen when we reached the year 2000, or Y2K. In the end, none of the doomsday predictions came true. The computers still worked, air traffic control still functioned, hospitals and banks carried on.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Going into the EU referendum the vested interest academic economists from the Bank of England down were repeatedly issuing dire warnings of a plunge in sterling that would send inflation soaring that would trigger a series of interest rate hikes all whilst the economy collapsed. The prices in the shops as measured by official UK CPI Inflation was hugging near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016 data, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation was already above 1% at 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So official UK price Inflation was already well above 1% and trending towards 2% before BrExit.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Fascist Business Model incorporates all the worse elements of Keynesian economics, a broken fallacious school of thought. The model also integrates a vast system of economic heresy, put forth as public address dogma. All their messages are wrong. They are instead aligned with support of the power structure where big banks conduct self-dealing and print money for themselves.
Monday, September 19, 2016
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Chinese “depreciation” and all its ensuing hysteria occurred just about a year ago. It has also been a about a year since I co-wrote a book on China with Worth Wray titled A Great Leap Forward?
The title was meant to be ironic. The original Great Leap Forward was imposed by Mao in the 1960s. It was one of the most economically disastrous times in Chinese history. Food production increased, yet 30 million people starved. China underwent a true financial and economic crisis due to the insanity of central control of markets.
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Sunday, September 18, 2016
American Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andy_Sutton
Over the years, we have written multiple times about the system of Keynesian economics, its dysfunction, and the fact that it is a pure lie. This has all been well-documented from studies, observations, right down to remarks made by Keynes himself regarding the long-term viability of his new faux economics.
However, from Keynesian economics, there has morphed another type of economics. A more ignorant and destructive type of scarce resource allocation – which is what economics really is after all – and this type is no respecter of persons, intellect, position, or influence. We could easily call it the economics of entitlement, but that would be misleading because when most think of entitlements, they think about Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. No, that’s not where the sense of American (and global) entitlement ends. It ends with the average working stiff who is paying 20% on a $40,000 / 7 -year truck loan with a balloon payment because his buddies told him he wasn’t cool if he didn’t have such a truck. There are zillions of other such examples of financial stupidity, however, nobody is bothering to tell these folks that they’re committing financial suicide. The banks certainly aren’t going to tell them. The government? Talk about the kettle and the pot. Or maybe there is too much legal pot. We certainly can’t legislate common sense, but we sure try to legislate away the consequences of foolish behavior.
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Monday, September 12, 2016
Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.”
But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.
Friday, September 09, 2016
Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft
and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand
Thursday, September 08, 2016
Failure of Inflation Targeting?! / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.
Thursday, September 08, 2016
Hyperinflation Versus Deflationary Collapse / Economics / Economic Collapse
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
If the thunder don’t get you, then the lightning will… The Grateful Dead, The Wheel(lyrics)
In the world of phenomena, everything has a beginning and an end; and today, the bankers’ endgame is moving closer to its inevitable resolution and demise. The question is no longer if, it is when and how.
The relationship between paper money and gold is causal in central banking’s collapse. When paper money was backed by gold, it (1) gave the bankers’ paper money its value and (2) constrained the ability of governments to print limitless amounts of money, as governments needed money backed by gold to balance trade deficits, i.e. value for value.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2016
BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now two months on from when the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, however subsequently a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests had propagandised both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, a message literally warning of economic collapse as the following warnings of doom from David Cameron, George Osborne and Mark Carney illustrate and that which many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality starting to dawn of a UK economy that is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several economic measures into and during the month of August.
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
GDP is more of a fuzzy reflection of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
GDP is a fairly recent statistic. Though it is malleable in its construction, it can be contentious in its application. Yet the media tend to release GDP numbers as if they are an accurate reflection of the general economy.
GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose. But its use can lead to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic, monetary, and fiscal policy.
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Monday, September 05, 2016
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom, Bank of England, Treasury Economists, Journalists ALL WRONG! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Two months on from the BrExit economic collapse apocalypse prophecies a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests painted both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, one of recession or even economic collapse that many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality stating that the UK economy is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several measures for the month of August.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.
Saturday, September 03, 2016
John Maynard Keynes’ “General Theory” Eighty Years Later / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Antonius_Aquinas
To the economic and political detriment of the Western world and those economies beyond which have adopted its precepts, 2016 marks the eightieth anniversary of the publication of one of, if not, the most influential economics books ever penned, John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Sadly, even to this day, despite its thorough refutation by lights such as Henry Hazlitt and other eminent scholars, The General Theory, which spawned “Keynesianism” and its later variants, remains supreme in academics, financial markets, and public policy.
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Friday, September 02, 2016
Psychological Manipulation & Economic Deception are now the Order of the day / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Sol_Palha
A man has free choice to the extent that he is rational. St. Thomas AquinasIt is possible if one takes the right actions to make money and remain relatively unscathed in such an environment. One cannot say the same for the masses because they are walking with their eyes wide shut. In other words, they do not see what’s happening; their heads are stuck in the sand. They are oblivious to what’s going around, and if you try to warn them, they are apt to strangle you. This situation is strikingly similar to “Plato’s allegory of the cave.”
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Thursday, September 01, 2016
“The Fly-in-the-Ointment” -> Stagnant Wages & Hidden Inflation / Economics / Wages
By: John_Mauldin
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WHY WAGES HAVE STAGNATED
“The statistics we rely on are becoming more and more suspicious.”
Statistics are now used for perception management rather than reflecting the real economy. Of all these statistics we’re relying on to reflect reality, some of them are really suspect. We’re trying to stick with the ones that are valid. GDP is flawed but still our bellwethers, and we’re still relying on FRED database.