Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Timing Major Stock Market Peaks, Bear Market Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Hampson
Starting on the smallest timescale, and working up to the largest.
1. Timing within the month
Lunar phasing influences human sentiment. It produces fortnightly oscillation in the stock market: positivity/optimism around the new moon and negativity/pessimism around the full moon. The cumulative influence of this can be seen in stock market returns over the last 20 years:
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Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Four Totally Bad Stocks Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Note from dshort: At the request of Greg Patterson at The Advisory Group in San Francisco, here’s updated comparison of four major cyclical bear markets. The numbers are through today’s close.
This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929. They are:
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Monday, January 13, 2014
U.S. Stocks Bull Market Peak, New Bear Market At Hand / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Hampson
First, a compilation of indicators and flags warning of a major market top in US equities:
Bull Market History Statistics
Dow is up more than 5% five consecutive years now and a sixth such year has not happened before in history.
A 5-year bull trend only occurred once before, in the 1990s, and was followed by 3 down years.
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Monday, December 23, 2013
Stock Market Forecast 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Hampson
Dow is up more than 5% five consecutive years now. A sixth such year has not happened before in history. A 5-year bull trend only occurred once before, in the 1990s, and was followed by 3 down years. Russell 2k rallies of similar size and duration to 2013′s (excluding accelerations from major bear lows) are shown below. In each case all the gains were given back the following year.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Stock Market Top - Bear Market Forecast 2014 to 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
It's been my theory for some time now that this QE driven bull market would top either in late 2013 or early 2014, followed by a multi-month stagnation process as liquidity leaked into the commodity markets.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: The Demise of the Social Compact is leading us to the next GFC / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
For those readers of my commentaries who do not look at charts on a regular basis, the price charts in the commentary that follows this one, should be a timely reminder of where we are in the scheme of things and how unrelated to the real world equity prices have become as a result. Risk is now at levels not seen since 2006 – 2008. What makes this situation even more unstable and untenable over the short to medium term, is that the Obama government, as part of their plan to destroy the US Tea Party once and for all by grabbing a majority vote in the US house of Reps on November 4th 2014, will be doing “whatever it takes” to keep the US dollar depressed and US equities on the boil. But despite this, financial markets are just too big and too fragmented to be totally controlled – even by the USA.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Stock Market Final High, Then the Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
There appears to be one more probe higher to complete Minor Wave C of Intermediate Wave (2). I estimate that it may go as far as 1800.00, but may not be able to touch the hourly Cycle Top at 1800.70.
This does not invalidate the comments regarding the reversal made in yesterday’s Closing Commentary. If anything, it may push the ultimate low forward another day or two.
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Is a Stocks Bear Market Right Around the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short.
What the 2007 Top Can Tell Us about the Present
The most famous law of economics that everyone learns in Econ 101 is the law of supply and demand. Essentially, if there are more buyers than sellers then prices will go up until equilibrium is reached. Conversely, if there are more sellers than buyers prices will decline. The stock market is no different.
If there are more buyers of stocks than sellers, the stock market will rise and will continue to do so until either the ranks of willing buyers thins out and/or the ranks of sellers grows. When equilibrium is reached between buyers and sellers a market begins to stall. When you have a continued stream of sellers dumping their holdings, a bear market ensues.
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Tuesday, November 19, 2013
The Dow Jones Stocks Index Probably Peaked Monday (18th Nov 13) / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
I recognise that I’m sticking my neck out here, but this post will be short and to the point. It seems to me that, barring significant Fed intervention, the US equity market probably peaked today. Please take the time to read my “Author Comments” that follow the Conclusion.
Monday, November 18, 2013
New Dow Jones Record? Stock Market Actually in Freefall Since the Year 2000 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Richard_Moyer
Lately, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and most every other market index have been on a tear, setting new records every week. There should be hairy asterisks aside these "records" that belie the larger truth: these aren't records at all. They aren't even close to the January 2000 record of 11,720 in terms of real stuff.
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Saturday, November 16, 2013
Why Still Only A Cyclical Stocks Bull Market Within Long-Term Secular Bear / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Sy_Harding
In 1999 Warren Buffett famously warned that “The next 17 years will be quite unlike the last 17 years. It might not look much better than the dismal 1965-1982 period.”
He was referring to the market’s history of cycling between long-term ‘secular’ bull and ‘secular’ bear markets, as it has done for at least 113 years.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Stock Market SPX Topping Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
2013’s incredible stock-market melt-up persisted this week, with the flagship American stock indexes surging to fresh record highs. The euphoric bulls continue to claim today’s lofty stock prices are justified by reasonable valuations. But nothing could be farther from the truth. Stocks are actually very expensive these days, with high valuations seen at major bull-market toppings. This makes for super-risky markets.
Successful investing demands buying low then selling high, so the price paid for any stock is absolutely critical to its ultimate return. Paying too much, buying even a great company’s stock when it is too expensive, virtually assures poor future gains at best. And overpaying when a bull market happens to be topping will lead to severe losses, as subsequent bears cut in half even the mightiest blue-chip stocks.
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Too Many Stock Market Dummies are Getting Rich... Huge Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Clive_Maund
We know that the Fed and other Central Banks are printing money like there's no tomorrow to stop the fragile system from imploding, but the Little Guy is not seeing any benefit from it, instead the banks and elites are making even more money out of that which is spirited into existence and then handed to them on a platter by driving asset prices higher and higher. The Little Guy instead gets stuck with the bill as he becomes a victim of the inflation that results.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
New Stock Market High - S&P and Dow Following Separate Paths / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Ed_Carlson
The methods of George Lindsay were meant to be applied to the Dow Industrials index and he warned against using these methods on broader indices (S&P 500, Wilshire 5,000, etc.) because of the constant rotation of stocks in and out of the indices and the inclusion of, what he called, "unseasoned issues". But with all major equity indices (DJIA, SPX, and NASDAQ) setting highs on or near 9/18/13 it looked as if the Lindsay forecast for a high in the Dow at that point in time was complete; game-set-match. So what are we to make of new highs in the S&P and NASDAQ since that time?
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Stock Market Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices, Major Top Lurking… / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception.
The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.
Whenever the broad market experiences a price correction, one of the most important factors I analyze is how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength to the broad market.
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Monday, October 07, 2013
Is the Next Stocks Bear Market About to Begin? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
The stock market is finally starting to show signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Before I go into the stock market though, I want to discuss the dollar because I think currencies are going to be integrally tied to the topping process.
For the better part of the past five years a lower dollar has generally been positive for the stock market. However, we are now five years into QE and I think we are at the point where it's important that the dollar hold its value. At this point I think the stock market is deathly afraid that the dollar is going to crack under five years of continual debasement. As many of you have probably noticed over the last several weeks stocks have been dropping along with the dollar.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
Stocks Bear Market Looms / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets have enjoyed a dazzling year, levitating to a long series of new record highs. But this relentless advance has stalled in August, with selling pressure mounting. Even most of the bulls readily agree that a material selloff is overdue after such a mighty run. But actually the odds are high this necessary retreat will extend well beyond normal pullbacks or even corrections into a new cyclical bear.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
Signs of the Stocks Bull Market Top, Ringing Bear Market Bell / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
The investment media seems obsessed with the question of whether the Fed will taper. The real question should be not about "tapering" but about credibility. What happens when fundamentals become the narrative as opposed to what the central bank is doing? What happens if the Federal Reserve throws a liquidity party and nobody comes? Today we look at some of the fundamentals. The market is in fact overvalued, but that doesn't mean it can't become more overvalued. Is this August 1987 or August 1999?
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Going Dark! Economic Cycles Point Downward, Stocks Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: DeviantInvestor
Unsustainable trends can survive much longer than most people anticipate, but they do end when their “time is up” – at the culmination of their time cycles. Examples of these trends include deficit spending, exponential debt increases, overpriced bond markets, and unbacked paper currencies, to name a few. For perspective on how and when these trends could change direction, we analyzed more than 20 different cycles. They nearly unanimously point to tectonic shifts in the months and years ahead. We have been warned!
At this point, we have enough confirmation to accept that the precious metals crash – starting in April of 2013 – was the first warning of what is coming globally.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Are You Ready to Weather the Coming Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Are you ready to weather the coming storm?
It is a truism that financial markets tend to rise into ever greater expectations and to peak when optimism can rise no further. But when a market can rise no higher, “A” peak becomes “THE” peak and once reached the only way left is down. The only conclusion I can come to as to why equities (but not all equities) are so high, is that the majority of market traders (you notice I do not use the term “investors” any more) must be by definition, “True Believers” in the one and only true “Gospel of the Perpetual Rising Market”, where fantasy triumphs over reason. In this fantasy world the fiction of bullish forward P/E Ratios will always triumph over the realities of the living world, because as we all know the one true God resides, not in heaven, but in Wall Street. But Bull Markets if nothing else are ephemeral beasts, so beware of the coming storm.