Category: Financial Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Financial Markets Outook for Gold, Stocks, Volatility, Euro and Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
One month ago, the SP500 was trading at 1,345 points. Today it is trading at 1,128 points, or down over 16%.
One month ago, Gold was trading at $1,601. Today, it is trading at $1,891, or up over 18%.
We therefore look back at some historical developments in this report, in order to forecast future developments.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold and Crude Oil Trading Thoughts, What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The past few weeks have been fast moving with fearful investors clearly in control. As we all know fear is the most powerful force in the financial market and when the hedge funds and the masses get spooked they all dart in one direction like a school of fish. Watching the charts and volume levels it’s clear that money was/is flowing out of stocks and into precious metals as the risk off safe plays. This was explained in last week’s report on how the GLD etf can be used as a fear/sentiment indicator (read here).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Scarlett O'Hara's Risk-Free Rate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The death of the long-established risk-to-reward asset categories was the subject of "It's Over." From lowest to highest: cash, bonds, and stocks, are the pecking order of institutional investment policies. Pension plans and endowments that have wandered into warehouses and gas-pipeline management often retain the outline as a mental diagram. The assets with the highest assumed risk (using statistical measurements) are expected to produce the highest return. The genesis for this construction is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), a deeply flawed academic theory.
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Saturday, August 20, 2011
Financial Markets and the Descending Triangle of Doom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The Dow has been trending lower since July 22, 2011. Other than a fabulous 600-point rally from 3PM to 4PM following the Fed meeting of August 9, 2011, the trend downward has been brutal and abrupt. There was also a 400-point rally two days later that was followed with two more rally days on falling volume. That may have been a warning sign. The Dow then turned lower oddly enough at just about the 38% Fibonacci retracement line of the descent. The Dow now sits at 10817. What will happen when the markets open on Monday?
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Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Early August Market Swings Were Unprecedented and Unnatural / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
What just happened in the stock market? Last week the Dow Jones industrial average rose or fell by at least 400 points for four straight days, a stock market first.
The worst drop was on Monday, Aug. 8, when the Dow plunged 624 points. Monday was the first day of trading after U.S. Treasury bonds were downgraded from AAA to AA+ by Standard and Poor’s.
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Investors Profitably Surmounting Plutocratic Perfidy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“Tuesday’s Fed meeting was sad. They failed to do what wise men urged, ie, cut the fat rate Fed pays banks that put reserves with Fed to zero. That would have caused banks to remove reserves & free them up for lending. Not doing this reveals banks control Fed & Fed is a banks cartel. That’s why Thomas Jefferson said he feared banks more than standing armies.”
Harry Schultz, The Big Picture, 8/11/11, The Aden Forecast
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Economists Refuse to Recognize the New Great Depression / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The recent financial slump has caused economists to take stock of the possibility of a "double dip" recession. Most of them, however, won't admit that the economic contraction which began in late 2007 is still underway and, worse still, has a few more years to run according to the Kress cycles. In this commentary we'll address this issue and have a look at where the cycles are leading the financial market and the economy.
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Thursday, August 18, 2011
Are Gold and the Stock Market Behaving Logically or Irrationally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Back on August 7th the S&P 500 was in the midst of a panic induced selloff and the bulls were running scared. Prices were collapsing and the bulls were racing to the exits. In the following weeks, piles of money flew out of equity mutual funds as the retail investors rang the register and pulled their money out near the lows which seems to be a regularly recurring event.
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Thursday, August 18, 2011
Gold and Stocks Are About To Move in Opposite Directions Get Ready! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The past few weeks traders and investors have been completely spooked from the surge of negative news and collapsing stock prices. This fear can be seen by looking at the volume on the GLD gold ETF fund. With gold being in the spot light for several years now and the fact that anyone can own gold simply through buying some GLD shares. It only makes sense that reading the volume on this chart gives us a good feel for what the masses are feeling emotionally.
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Sunday, August 14, 2011
Global Stock and Financial Market Confidence Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
I have never been big advocate of conspiracy theories. Most of these theories are information that is reported in the media circus to incite anger towards one group of people. Meanwhile the real stealth culprits go unnoticed.
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Sunday, August 14, 2011
Socio-Economics Put China and India at Higher Investment Risk Than The U.S. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
This week has turned out to be Wall Street's wildest week since 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 519 points on Tuesday, Aug. 10, but then went up 423.37 points. But overall, Down has now lost more than 2,000, or 16% since July 21, less than three weeks ago. The selloff intensified after the U.S. got stripped of the top notch AAA rating by S&P first time ever in history.
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Saturday, August 13, 2011
Watching Silver and S&P Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
If we look closely at the enclosed patterns, we can make the case that since Aug 8 & 9, spot gold is looking a bit toppy, while the emini S&P 500 and spot silver have a considerably more constructive look.
If we translate that into fundamental reason, perhaps scared money is beginning to flow out of gold and back into equities and industrial commodities in anticipation of improvement in the U.S. and global economies.
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Saturday, August 13, 2011
Garnering Profits in The New Abnormal in Gold, Silver, Stocks, Commodities & Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“The United States is quickly approaching a fiscal Armageddon and the players in Washington — specifically Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke — don’t understand what is happening or know what do about it, world renowned investor and author Jim Rogers tells Newsmax.TV...
…any halt in the decline of stocks was just a “temporary bottom.”
He said that while America was not at the brink of a fiscal Armageddon right now, the nation is likely to default on its obligations in the future.
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Thursday, August 11, 2011
Irrationality Drives Financial Markets, That's How Systems Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Oh thank you, Wikipedia, for this definition:
“Irrationality is cognition, thinking, talking or acting without inclusion of rationality. It is more specifically described as an action or opinion given through inadequate reasoning, emotional distress, or cognitive deficiency. The term is used, usually pejoratively, to describe thinking and actions that are, or appear to be, less useful or more illogical than other more rational alternatives.”
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Stock Market and Economic Overview / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
AVA Investment Analytics : Approximately three months weeks ago the U.S. markets began to correct. We warned about this first correction in the May issue of our firms paid research publications.
We followed up in June, forecasting additional downside down to the 11,800 level with the highest probability. This level was to be the repurchase area for those who decided to sell positions at the top. The Dow rallied in late June after hitting 11,844.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Fed Call Wakes Up Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Yesterday the Fed minutes were released and to cut to the end they told everyone what they already knew and why the markets have sold off 14% in the last two weeks. The U.S. economy is slowing and it’s not all transitory from bad weather and Japan’s tragic tsunami and earthquake. While people will debate the verbiage what was made abundantly clear was that the Fed is going to keep interest rates low for a very long time. The statement said rates would remain low until mid 2013. That the Fed would commit to such a long time frame is a very unusual event.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Where Oh Where Are The Safe Havens From Yesteryear? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Gold Stock Trades (GST) is witnessing the resumption of the long term uptrend in gold(GLD) and silver(SLV) bullion and precious metals mining stocks(GDX). Along the way there have been many negative voices that were counseling throwing in the towel and moving into the U.S. dollar and long term treasuries. We see no underlying fundamental reasons and find that the safe havens of yesteryear are falling by the wayside. A few months ago Gold Stock Trades alerted readers that investors are being prepared for further accommodative moves by the Federal Reserve Board.
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Monday, August 08, 2011
Raging Credit Crisis, Why the Dow Crashed 512 Points On Thursday / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
What caused global markets to plunge on Thursday?
Was it poor economic data in the US; the sudden slowdown in manufacturing, declining consumer spending, shrinking GDP and ongoing troubles in the housing market?
Saturday, August 06, 2011
The Center of Gravity Shifts Slowly / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Andrew Schiff writes: To an extent not fully appreciated by the investing public, financial markets are influenced by human emotion just as much as they are by economic data, corporate earnings, and dividend yields. Of all human motivations, fear is perhaps the most powerful. When people get scared, the "fight or flight" instinct forces us to take action.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Gold Safe Haven Jumps 2% as Stock Market Indices Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Gold is 0.75% higher in dollar terms this morning on safe haven buying after yesterday’s 0.43% fall. Gold is marginally higher against all currencies and is trading at USD 1,659.50 , EUR 1,170.20 , GBP 1,018.30, CHF 1,269.00 per ounce and 130,530.00 JPY.
The surprisingly positive U.S. jobs figure may lead to further short term weakness.
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