Category: Financial Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Stocks, U.S. Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed QE Meeting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Experience tells us the best approach to this week’s Fed trifecta (meeting, statement, and press conference) is (a) to be patient, (b) wait for the news to come out, (c) monitor the market’s reaction, and (d) make any adjustments to our allocation if needed. From a contingency planning perspective, it is helpful to study the markets for clues that may foreshadow the reaction to Wednesday’s Fed statement and press briefing.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Hedge Funds Speculators and Their Poverty Premium / Politics / Financial Markets 2011
By: BATR
The short sale protection racket known as hedge funds is a speculators’ dream come true.
According to Investopedia, What Does Hedge Fund Mean? is defined as, "An aggressively managed portfolio of investments that uses advanced investment strategies such as leveraged, long, short and derivative positions in both domestic and international markets with the goal of generating high returns (either in an absolute sense or over a specified market benchmark). Hedge funds use dozens of different strategies, so it isn't accurate to say that hedge funds just "hedge risk". In fact, because hedge fund managers make speculative investments, these funds can carry more risk than the overall market".
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Monday, April 25, 2011
Stock Market, Is It 1994 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Fred_Sheehan
There are several similarities between current trends and those in 1994, a year when many institutions were left destitute. Historical analogies can help us imagine what might happen, but identification of differences should be noted too.
The greatest dissimilarity is probably the structure of markets. There was some official (government-sponsored) interference in 1994, the most obvious being the Federal Reserve's authorized pegging of interest rates. There was, however, no comparison to the government's merrymaking in 2011.
Monday, April 25, 2011
“Pirates of the Caribbean” or the Pattern of a Parasite / Politics / Financial Markets 2011
By: Submissions
Forrest Lane writes: Has anybody ever wondered why yet another mediocre Hollywood production “Pirates of the Caribbean” made such a tremendous box-office? Its sequels contain some visual gimmicks at least, which might seem entertaining to eight year old kids or people who zealously maintain their consciousness at the same level. But the first movie was not only senseless, but utterly tedious as well. Taking into account that hitherto the latest big budget endeavour on this subject - Renny Harlin’s “Cutthroat Island” - was undertaken as early as in 1995, became a commercial disaster and ruined Carolco Pictures, this success (the movie has made more than $300 million domestically and about the same amount worldwide) strikes as a bit enigmatic.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
What the Baltic Dry Index May be Telling Us / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Tim_Wood
Just as with the stock market, I've maintained that the advance seen since the early 2009 lows, in other asset classes, are also counter-trend moves. This view has not changed and based on my research I believe that once these counter-trend bounces have run their course, the longer-term secular bear will again reassert himself. In doing so, I look for all asset classes to decline in conjunction with the phase II decline of the ongoing secular bear market, which I believe is similar to the 1966 to 1974 secular bear market.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Investor Opportunities and Peril in the Gold-Food-Oil-QE Connection / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption…
In order for the financial system to operate, it needs continual debt expansion and servicing. Both are important. If either is missing, then catastrophe can strike at any time…
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Friday, April 22, 2011
Will S&P500 Stocks Index, Silver, Gold, and Crude Oil Breakout Higher? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: J_W_Jones
The price action in the financial markets this week has added to the continued confusion about where equity prices are headed. Precious metals and oil prices have been working higher for quite some time, but equity prices have been rather range bound now for over a month. Currently, the SPX looks poised to test the recent highs after selling off harshly this past Monday.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Gold and Stocks Rally, Overbought, Time For a Pullback / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It has been a very interesting week thus far. Monday kick started traders with a heart pounding equities sell off which sent money into the US Dollar, precious metals and bonds as the safe havens of choice.
A lot has happened this week on a technical analysis basis which I can’t really show in a written report like this. But can do so in detail within my video newsletter. There are just to many charts required and layers of analysis to cover... But I can cover some of the points and my thoughts using the charts below:
Thursday, April 21, 2011
The U.S. Dollar’s Destruction Apparently Saves the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: PhilStockWorld
Wheeeee, what a day already!
The Dollar is down from 76 yesterday to 74.5 this morning, a stunning 2% drop for a currency in a country that didn't have an earthquake or a revolution overnight. 75.63 was our low of last November (a one-day spike and we were back at 81 by the end of the month as the market fell apart) and before that we only touched 74.23 briefly in November of 2009 (it's a bad month for the Dollar) and we flew up from there to 78 in December and 80 in January.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
S&P500, Crude Oil, and Gold Reliant on U.S. Dollar Price Action / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: J_W_Jones
“The week that was” left many investors running for the exits on Monday and Tuesday as prices in the equity, energy, and precious metals markets plunged. The U.S. Dollar index futures tried to work their way out of a descending channel, but came up unsuccessful. The U.S. Dollar index rallied in several morning sessions, but usually was met with heavy selling later in the day which either muted gains or pushed the dollar index lower. The other notable development this week was some Fed drivel which solidified the Central Bank’s continued efforts to devalue the U.S. currency and hold short term interest rates hostage. In addition, it seems more likely with every press release from a Fed Governor that Quantitative Easing II will expire in June and Quantitative Easing III will not be pursued unless economic conditions worsen.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Fed Reckoning Day Realities for Investor Pain and Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“In this light, the Fed’s action is especially meretricious. If it weren’t in such a hurry to juice the stock market and thereby keep the illusion of recovery going, it might have considered extending the regulatory sequester on bank capital for a few more quarters or even years thereby preserving a shield for the taxpayers until it has been demonstrated by the passage of time, not by the passing of phony stress tests, that the American banking system is truly out of the woods.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Investors Unaware of Significance of Currency Market Events, No Faith and Credit / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_J_Stills
"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~ Tolstoy
Monday, April 11, 2011
Currency Analysis and Forecasts for Canadian Dollar, Euro, USD Plus Bonds and S&P / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: David_Petch
The daily chart of the Canadian dollar index is shown below, with upper Bollinger bands all in close proximity to each other and the index, suggestive that further upside potential exists. The lower 21 and 5 MA Bollinger bands curling over also support further upside. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and beneath the %D in 2 and 3. Notice how the %K in stochastic 2 curled up. The daily chart suggests at least 7-10 days of further upside before any sort of top is put in place. A high Canadian dollar is going to have a devastating impact on companies in Canada.
Friday, April 08, 2011
Burgeoning Bubbles and Popping Protection / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“Last week I was both surprised and pleased when the Supreme Court upheld lower court decisions requiring the Federal Reserve Bank to comply with requests for information made by Bloomberg under the Freedom of Information Act ("FOIA"). Bloomberg simply wanted to know who received loans from the Fed's discount window in the aftermath of the 2008 financial market crisis, and how much each entity received. Surely this is basic information that should be available to every American taxpayer. But the Fed fought tooth and nail all the way to the Supreme Court to preserve their privileged secrecy…
Friday, April 08, 2011
Q2 Forecasts for Investor Profits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
With the first quarter of 2011 behind us, there's a lot to take away and learn from - especially when it comes to the direction of oil prices, interest rates and stocks.
Granted, we're right now navigating one of the most uncertain periods in modern global history. But if you're a trader or an investor, knowing how markets have been reacting to recent news and events provides you with some valuable insights that you can use going forward.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
Sun Spots Solar Activity and the Financial Markets Part II / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: John_Hampson
If you have not already read the first part of my analysis on Solar Activity and the Financial Markets, please do so here, as it provides important background for part II.
In that article I provided evidence that rising solar activity into a solar peak is correlated with periods of inflation and that in historical secular commodities bull markets the relative pricing of hard assets to stocks has each time peaked at the solar peak. Commodities are sought after in inflationary times and their prices are a key ingredient in consumer price inflation levels, producing a feedback loop, but given that stocks also usually perform well in inflationary times is there any correlation between stocks and solar cycles?
Monday, April 04, 2011
U.S. Dollar's Impact on S&P 500, Gold, and Crude Oil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Are Stocks and Commodities About To Start Another Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Solar Sun Spot Activity and the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: John_Hampson
In recent weeks we have seen surprisingly high solar activity, with sunspot readings over 100 on multiple days, shown below, red line.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Current Outlook for Stocks, Commodities and the US Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: John_Hampson
Since my analysis of March 17th, "Stock Market Buying Opportunity", US and European stock indices have risen 5-8%. Indices have broken through key resistance, key moving averages and made positive MACD crosses, plus small caps have outperformed, which is typically bullish. On the bearish side, volume has made a negative divergence, as shown below, and we do not see a typical positive Nymo divergence which would usually require another corrective leg down.