Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Stock Markets Still Looking for Interest Rate Clues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Richard_Cox
By nearly all accounts, stock markets have had trouble gaining momentum over the last year. The S&P 500 is now trading just 0.6% higher for the period -- and while this might seem modestly positive it does not say much for what is essentially a multi-year bull run in the equities space. There are a few different schools arguing for why exactly this is happening but no matter which view you take, nearly every investor is looking for new clues in what is likely to happen in global interest rate changes.
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Saturday, April 02, 2016
Manufacturing Improving.... Jobs Doing Well.... Stock Market Holds Well / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market day started with some nasty futures as the overbought, daily index charts were finally about to unwind some. That would have been great news. An hour before the market opened we got the much anticipated Jobs Report. Overall, it was in line, but it did little to nothing to help the market rally off the lows. The day started out with a gap down, and after being down as much as fifteen points on the S&P 500, we started to slowly, but surely, rally back up a bit, but remained in the red.
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Friday, April 01, 2016
Stock Market Forecast for April 2016 - Bull or Bear? (Video) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The supposed great bear market of 2016 has relentlessly trended in the WRONG direction as each hope that the bears clung to once more resolved in another ramping higher of stock prices. The latest best hope being the Fed meeting that was meant to deliver bear market apocalypse and most recently Yellen yelling that the Fed is in no hurry to raise US interest rates that keeps catching market participants by surprise. This despite near 2 months ago we saw the BoJ panic with negative interest rates, and then earlier this month the ECB also panic with negative interest rates!
Friday, April 01, 2016
Mixed to Slightly Positive Stock Market Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had an unusual day. First they were up in the morning, by midday they reached their peak, and came down hard. By midafternoon they reached their bottom, and then rallied in the last hour, only to pull back at the close to finish down on the day.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 31.57 at 17,685.09. The S&P 500 was down 4.21 to 2059.74. The Nasdaq 100 was down 7.22 to 4483.66.
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
FTSE 100: Positioning for Long Term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Richard_Cox
Over the last year, the FTSE 100 has come under pressure as investors have taken profits and we are seeing increased speculation that the economic will be able to withstand future increases in interest rates. This has created some interesting opportunities to buy in at very cheap levels as valuations in equities are still trading near the lows for the period. Bullish positions in the FTSE 100 represent something of a contrarian view in the current environment but from a risk/reward perspective this view is clearly favorable.
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Stock Market More Upside Following Tuesday's Fed Talk - Will It Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Stock Market Good Follow-Through Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a nice follow-through to yesterday’s rally in the morning as they gapped up, ran hard in the first thirty-forty minutes and reached their session highs. By midday they pulled back in falling wedges, resulting in an afternoon rally back. The resistance was too much for the markets, and they pulled back in the last hour, but still closed positive on the day.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 83.55 at 17,716.66. The S&P 500 was up 8.94 to 2063.95, 9 points off the high, so it gave back about half the gains. The Nasdaq 100 was up 23.16 to 4490.88, 23 points off the high, also giving back about half.
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Stock Market Worst Case Scenario = 73% Down From Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: James_Quinn
As the stock market gyrates higher and lower in a fairly narrow range, the spokesmodels and talking heads on CNBC breathlessly regurgitate the standard bullish mantra designed to keep the muppets in the market. They are employees of a massive corporation whose bottom line and stock price depend upon advertising revenues reaped from Wall Street and K Street. They aren't journalists. They are propagandists disguised as journalists. Their job is to keep you confused, misinformed, and ignorant of the true facts.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Friday The Day...Any Day The Day?...... Stock Market At Trend Line Resistance..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The fed market is on a mission. It wants to change the way we look at technical analysis for good. Or at least for a long time to come when the next bear market kicks in. That's likely a long way off since the fed will serve and protect for a long time to come as she is basically promising low rates for years to come as mentioned in her speech yesterday. She wants to create inflation. She doesn't want to do it through the market, but since the global economy stinks there basically is no other way to do it. She uses words that she knows will excite the market masses. Every word carefully planned. Every word with a meaning behind it. While she's not a very good talker, she is a very convincing. It doesn't matter how she says it that matters. It's what she says. So with the promise of low rates and more stimulus if need be, we can't seem to find a top in the market, even though it's grossly overbought and flashing some negative divergences now on the daily chart.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Stock Market Window Dressing May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX made its high a few minutes after 11:00 am. I don’t expect to see a lot of movement today, but the quarterly window-dressing appears to be over. The critical 4.3-year support is now at 2050.00. The short-term trendline support is at 2042.00.
Today’s volume was below average and it appears that short covering may be exhausted. I had expected to see stock buybacks to end much earlier than this, but some may have decided it is better to apologize if caught. The stock buybacks facilitated a lot of insider liquidations.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Painting the Stock Market Tape For the End of Quarter / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jesse
Today the US stock markets decided to celebrate the lack of a sustainable recovery and the slumping global economies of the world.
Janet Yellen sparked a brushfire rally in a dull market. Yesterday was the lowest trading day of the year in terms of volume.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Stocks Bull Market About to Hand Bears Another Noose? Forecast 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The supposed great bear market of 2016 has relentlessly trended in the WRONG direction as each hope that the bears clung to once more resolved in another ramping higher of stock prices. The latest best hope being the Fed meeting that was meant to deliver bear market apocalypse and most recently Yellen yelling that the Fed is in no hurry to raise US interest rates that keeps catching market participants by surprise. This despite near 2 months ago we saw the BoJ panic with negative interest rates, and then earlier this month the ECB also panic with negative interest rates!
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Possible Truncated Stock Market High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX peaked (so far) today at 15:25 hours at a high of 2055.91. Should it go no higher, it may be the orthodox high, if not the numeric high, which still stands on March 22. The March 22 SPC (futures) high was 2047.75, while today’s high was 2047.50.
I had mentioned in yesterday’s email that today is a Pi date. These dates come at important highs and lows in the Cycles. An aggressive sell signal may come at the crossing of the trendline at 2040.00 or Short-term support at 2032.17.
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Tuesday, March 29, 2016
YAWN......VIX Lower...Beta Lower.... Stock Market To Nowhere... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The emotions run high as it seems something special is about to happen, only to see it disappear in a puff of sadness. It looks like the market is about to rock, but it doesn't. You say to me, but it has run up already. I say, but to where? It goes nowhere in the end. Nothing sustainable. We rise. We get overbought. We pull back. We rise, and then see negative divergences, and then fall again. It goes nowhere in the big picture. Today was incredibly boring simply because beta, volatility, if you will, is leaving the ball park. Taking a vacation as the lower VIX readings are taking over, even though the VIX was up today. Oh how many long for the days of VIX readings in the upper 20's or lower 30's. Then we'd see 100-point moves on the Nasdaq as routine.
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Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Stock Market and Crude Oil Price Tops? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the FED Central Banks. On March 10th, 2016, the ECB surprised the financial world by announcing a much stronger than expected stimulus package. One week later, the FED announced that it would not raise its’ short-term interest rates. It was only three months earlier, back in December of 2015, that they suggested that they would raise rates four times in 2016. It is now my belief, that they will not raise short- term interest ‘materially’ in 2016.
Monday, March 28, 2016
Stock Market Easter Egg...The Jaws of Life / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to show you some more charts on some if the different stock market indices we looked at in the last Weekend Report. Last weekend we looked at alot of the bull market uptrend channels that are still in place since the 2009 crash low. It's always important to keep an open mind no matter how strongly we believe things to be when it comes to the stock markets. Everyone can't get in at the bottom and everyone can't get out at the top and then there is the consolidation phase that trips up both the bull and the bears alike.
Monday, March 28, 2016
A Chink In The Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential rally top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, March 26, 2016
Stock Market Maybe This Time is Different? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started at SPX 2050. After a somewhat choppy move higher to SPX 2057 by Tuesday, the market pulled back to SPX 2022 on Thursday. Then it rose for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2036. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.6%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.3%, and the DJ World lost 1.3%. On the economic front reports finally came in on the positive side. On the uptick: FHFA housing, new homes sales, Q4 GDP and the WLEI. On the downtick: existing home sales, durable goods, and Q1 GDPN. Next week, a busy one, is highlighted by Payrolls, the Chicago PMI, and the PCE.
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Stock Market SPX & Crude Oil at Critical Juncture / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The SPX at the 2050 level looks like a great place for a ‘pullback’ to begin as indicated in the chart below. There is a potential “distribution topping phase” in which the SPX may pull back to 2000. I see a potential target at 1890.
The price has made a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since topping in 2015. There was a big August 2015 sell-off, followed by a rally to a lower high in November 2015, then a sell-off to a lower low in January 2016. The rally currently is still at a lower high than the November 2015 high.
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Thursday, March 24, 2016
Stock Market SPX May Gap Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX crossed another short-term trendline in the Premarket and appears to be challenging its Short-term support at 2020.07. Should SPX gap beneath that level at the open, we may be in for a fast ride to Intermediate-term support at 1854.42. It is my opinion that 2040.00 was the most important support of the rally.
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