Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, August 15, 2015
The China Dollar Shot Not Heard Around the World / Currencies / US Dollar
China's recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front in the global currency wars has begun. The move has caused many observes to envision a new round of competitive devaluations around the globe in which the race to the bottom will intensify. In this scenario they envision that the U.S. dollar will solidify its standing as the only strong currency. This misses the point entirely.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
The Fiat Yuan / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Seth Lipsky/The New York Sun/8-11-2015
“If the Communist Chinese devalue the yuan against a dollar that is appreciating against gold, has the yuan gone up or down? We ask because the leading story on the New York Times Web site this morning reports not only that the Chicom authorities ‘sharply devalued’ the renminbi but also that the move ‘could raise geopolitical tensions and weigh on growth elsewhere.’ We ran the Times’ entire text through the Sun’s old hand-crank Von Mises brand language-specie prose separator. It failed to find any mention of — or even allusion to — gold.”
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) Surges Following China’s Devaluation / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Following China’s devaluation on Tuesday of the yuan, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan currency pair (USD/CNY) has surged, reaching as high as 6.4485 so far today (Wednesday). It has now reached the most overbought level on a weekly basis since 2001 (based on weekly 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator), and is extremely overbought based on the daily chart, getting close to the maximum reading of 100.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
EURUSD: An Ending Diagonal Triangle in Action / Currencies / Euro
See how beautifully recent trading in the euro followed a high-confidence Elliott wave pattern
Remember how during the time of the Greek bailout a couple of weeks ago, the euro didn't seem to "know" which way to go next? There is a reason for that, says The Wall Street Journal -- carry trade:
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Five Currencies' Positioning in One Chart / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Combining the net speculative futures positions of all 5 major currencies against the USD, we find CHF positioning to remain the only net long against USD, ever since the SNB decision end its EURCHF peg in January. GBP positioning is the only currency to show steady improvement against USD. Currency-by-currency analysis below.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015
China Major Devaluation Coming / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
The whole “market economy” thing is turning out to be a little trickier than China’s dictators expected. To set up the story: After the 2008 crash the country borrowed about $15 trillion (an amount that dwarfs the US Fed’s quantitative easing programs) and spent the proceeds on history’s biggest infrastructure program.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
USD Index Rebounds / Currencies / US Dollar
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 18 dropped by 26,000 to 255,000, beating analysts' expectations for a 1,000 drop. In this environment, the USD Index bounced off session's lows and came back above 97. What impact did this move have on the euro, pound and Swiss franc?
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015
US Dollar Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
The previous Friday's expected cycle low was successful in starting a rally last week in which the US Dollar had its best week since May. DXY gained 1.89% to close at 97.99 above the June 1 high and printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on the weekly chart.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2015
British Pound Still Rallying Against Swiss Franc / Currencies / British Pound
Forex markets have posted some significant trends so far in 2015. But when we look at the overall value of the British Pound (GBP), the comparisons are generally made against either the Euro or the US Dollar. There is a strong basis for this fact, as both of these currencies see much larger trading volumes than some of the other selections that are available in the currency markets.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Now that Greece is Guaranteed in the Euro, the Euro is Down / Currencies / Euro
One of the mantras repeated to exhaustion over the last few months was “if Greece leaves the Euro, the Euro is over”. Is it? The charts say the opposite. When the prospect of Grexit reached its peak, the Euro didn´t crash. Quite the opposite, it got stronger. Now that Greece seems “secure” in the Euro, the Euro is down. Could the Grexit mantra be wrong?
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Tuesday, July 14, 2015
After the Rally, What's Next? - Video / Currencies / Euro
Get new forecasts for the euro from Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist
Think the recent rally in the euro was the result of "good news" from Greece? Think again.
Watch our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, explain what's really behind the moves.
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Saturday, July 11, 2015
Bitcoin Price Up on Probable Greek Deal / Currencies / Bitcoin
In short: no speculative positions.
Greece seems to have given in to its creditors’ demands for more austerity as the Greek government sent out a revised reform proposal yesterday which included substantial concessions on its part. Is this the end of the Greek drama? Most likely not.
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Friday, July 10, 2015
USDJPY Correction Underway / Currencies / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY currency pair has traded exactly as laid out in previous client analysis and a correction now appears underway. Let's analyse both the medium term and long term pictures using the weekly and yearly charts.
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Monday, July 06, 2015
New Zealand Dollar Could Rally Double Digits in the Coming Months / Currencies / Forex Trading
Brett Eversole writes: Major currencies are rising in value...
Since the U.S. dollar peaked on March 13, the Brazilian real is up around 8.5%. And the euro is up around 5.7%.
But two major currencies have lost value versus the dollar – the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action / Currencies / US Dollar
An excerpt from our free 14-page report shows you how the Elliott Wave Principle can "Boost Your Forex Success"
I always say trading forex markets is like riding a bike -- except that said bike has one flat tire and the ground beneath it is covered in ice.
So why are they so popular, you might ask? In fact, forex is the most liquid market on earth, where trillions of dollars change millions of hands every day.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
The Complexity of Legal Tender / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Measuring wealth with an ever-expanding ruler makes for a carnival illusion of safety, suspended in a vast, uneven web of complexity.
The longer society and culture remain detached from the nature of true wealth, the more fragile we become to ‘normal’ risk.
Complexity is not always good or robust.
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Thursday, July 02, 2015
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
The USDollar is on a collision course with imminent death. It is utterly amazing that so many supposedly smart analysts and highly paid wealth managers cannot see the obvious path on which the USDollar treads, limps, and struts proudly, dangerously, and abusively, suspended by numerous false cables and tethers. The USDollar cannot be sustained in its current form or on its present course. The abuse of its management and stewardship will be told in history books (possibly with certain chapters scribed by the Jackass). The aggressive defense of the USDollar includes criminal activity on a widespread scale never witnessed before. It is a veritable global money war, not so much a global financial crisis. The system, centered upon the USDollar, is collapsing under its own insolvency and corrupt underpinnings amidst the din of war. The truth is almost nowhere to be seen. The USGovt is demanding that allies support the global currency reserve, even though doing so guarantees a financial structure collapse and an economic breakdown. The safe haven is Gold & Silver, in the form of bars & coins, kept secure outside all nations that speak English, and outside nations that are closely allied with the USFed and USDept Treasury which operate like a vast crime syndicate.
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Thursday, July 02, 2015
Forget Drachmas Greece Syriza Government Could Instruct Central Bank to Print Euros! / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
This week Greece started to default on its debt repayments. However, unlike other countries that have gone bankrupt in the past, Greece as part of the Euro-zone officially cannot print money and inflate the purchase power of debt, wages and savings away. In exchange for this Greece enjoys monetary stability i.e. low inflation which means the only way to deal with the structural deficit that is generating the debt is to CUT government spending and wages so as to make Greece more competitive.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Beyond Greece: The Euro's Fundamental Flaw / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
The euro has more problems than just Greece. The great "euro zone" experiment was bound to have a few kinks... but it is more flawed than it seems.I have a sister who is two years older than me. We fought from time to time growing up. I distinctly remember this one time when I was 11 and our dad forced us to make up by putting our arms around each other’s shoulders. I don’t remember what the fight was about, but I do remember that the outcome wasn’t pleasant!
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Tuesday, June 30, 2015
U.S. Dollar Final Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one "last hurrah" prior to a "summer swoon" a month from now.
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