Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
EUR/USD A Gift for Currency Bears / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the ZEW Institute showed that its index of German economic sentiment fell to a 16-month low this month. Additionally, the ZEW Institute reported that its economic sentiment index for the entire euro zone also moved down to 55.2 in May, from a reading of 61.2 the previous month. These disappointing numbers pushed the common currency to a 1-month low against the U.S. dollar. In this way, EUR/USD dropped to its downside target, but is it enough to trigger a corrective upswing?
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Bitcoin - Time to Back Out? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we still support having short speculative in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss at $470.
MasterCard is lobbying on Bitcoin, The Hill reported. The credit card company is thought to be one of the businesses that might potentially lose most if Bitcoin was to become a reliable and widely-acceptable payment network. The article:
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Monday, May 12, 2014
Squawk Showdown: Bitcoin or Gold? What’s Next for Currency / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
Georgi Ivanov writes: Our recent Squawk Walk on the streets of Taipei surveyed people at random what they would decide, given a choice to walk away with a gram of gold or a USB stick, loaded with one bitcoin. The responses varied, but with a slight margin, bitcoin won the competition. We have to ask – are virtual currencies on the path to revolutionizing the global financial system, or are they just a lot of hot air? The truth would have to be somewhere in the middle: changes are coming, but they will not be revolutionary, yet, cryptocurrencies do offer a new opportunity for the unprecedented democratization of global finance.
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Monday, May 12, 2014
What’s Going on With the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jonathan_Davis
The below is the index of the US $ against a basket of currencies, such as € (c 58% of index), £, CAN$, CHF (Swiss Franc) and Japanese ¥ and (strangely) Swedish Krona.
As you can see the US$ was in confirmed uptrend from the all time low in 2011 to last Summer (red diagonal line indicates).
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Friday, May 09, 2014
Bitcoin Price Up Move Might Be Less Bullish Than You Think / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
To the point: we still support short speculative positions in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss at $470.
Bitcoin is sometimes viewed as a highly disruptive innovation with the potential to change the payment system. While it surely provides a lot of opportunities, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will cut the banks out of the system. Bloomberg posted a piece yesterday in which it argues that the very banks that would feel any kind of threat from Bitcoin are currently studying the innovative nature of Bitcoin to possibly come up with their own kinds of seamless payment systems:
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Wednesday, May 07, 2014
USD/JPY Ignition / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Ignition...liftoff! USD/JPY rose from 101.43 at the low to 101.75 at 8:00 am. At 8:00 am SPX futures started to ramp. SPX pre-market is up 7 points and may go to Short-term resistance at 1876.00 or 17-day resistance at 1878.00 (not shown).
There is some concern that the decline so far is not impulsive. The best explanation why is that the shallow clustering of supports temporarily prevent the declines from making the longer declines typical in an impulse. Another explanation is that SPX may be making a Leading Diagonal wave. Something else may be happening if the ramp goes above 1885.51.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Sterling British Pound Strength and 'Real' Differentials / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The British pound is the best performing currency so far this quarter (+2.0% vs USD) as well as over the last 6 months (+5.7% vs USD) out of the top-traded 11 currencies.
Real differentials in 2-year govt bond yields (yield minus inflation) have helped explain currency performance over the last 2 years, including sterling's strength since last autumn.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Bitcoin Price Reaction or Lack of Reaction to News from China? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we don’t support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market at the moment.
More news from China coming our way. BTC China, a prominent Bitcoin exchange, announced today it would stop taking yuan-denominated deposits from the Bank of China as of today:
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Bitcoin is a Fascinating Story, and I Think it's Real / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Bloomberg
Michael Novogratz, principal of Fortress Investment Group, spoke with Bloomberg Television anchor Stephanie Ruhle from the Sohn Investment Conference in New York today.
Novogratz talked about Bitcoin, saying, "Intellectually it's a fascinating story to me, and I think it's real. If you look at the total market cap of Bitcoin, it's probably somewhere between $4.5 billion, $5 billion. There are in best estimates somewhere 30,000 individual programmers working on Bitcoin. My college roommate lives down in Barbados. He was the smartest guy that we went to school with. He full time works on derivatives of Bitcoin. So there's this open source community where there's huge brain power, let alone all the VC money that's going in. And so from Marc Andreessen and his company to Benchmark...there's lots of smart money going in. I've never seen a small project with more human capital going into it, and so I kind of want to bet just on that alone."
Friday, May 02, 2014
Plunging Euro and Rising U.S. Dollar or Vice Versa? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. dollar moved higher against the common currency after strong U.S. employment data. The Labor Department showed that the U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs in the previous month, well above expectations for a 210,000 increase. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% in April, while analysts had expected a fall to 6.6%. In reaction to these better-than-expected numbers, the euro declined sharply, approaching its important support. Will history repeat itself once again?
Friday, May 02, 2014
Bitcoin Price Moving Down but What Kind of Move Is It? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
Briefly: we don't support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market now.
Bitcoin's popularity has spread in the recent months and this is acknowledged by the number of articles there are out there on cryptocurrencies. Articles also posted by news services and financial websites. Now the popularity of Bitcoin has been confirmed by Bloomberg. The company has recently decided to include Bitcoin in the vast universe of financial instruments reported within Bloomberg's data stream.
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Thursday, May 01, 2014
ECB Draws a Line in the Sand for Euro Currency at $1.40 / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Dorsch
Two years ago, the big worry in the global markets was the possibility that Greece would opt to leave the Euro, which in turn, would set off a chain reaction, in which Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and Italy might also choose to do the same. The Euro’s credibility was at risk as it plummeted towards US$1.200. Nervous investors were thinking about withdrawing monies held on deposit with European banks. A mini-flight of capital was already underway. Businesses and households had withdrawn €80-billion ($103-billion), from banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, during the first five months of 2012.
Thursday, May 01, 2014
USD/CHF – Strong Bearish Action / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. currency moved lower after data showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 0.1% in the first quarter, well below expectations for a 1.2% growth. In reaction to this, the greenback declined sharply against the Swiss franc and reached the long-term support line once again. Will it withstand the selling pressure in the following days?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
EUR/USD: none GBP/USD: none USD/JPY: none USD/CAD: none USD/CHF: none AUD/USD: short (stop-loss order: 0.9410; initial price target: 0.9060)
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Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Bitcoin Price at the Beginning of a Move up? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we don’t support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market at the moment.
It looks like Mt. Gox’s creditors in Canada and the U.S., or at least those of them who took part in the class action lawsuits, have come to an agreement with potential investors. Today, Reuters posted a story according to which former Mt. Gox customers had agreed to settle the class action lawsuits in exchange for the 200,000 bitcoins found at Mt. Gox, $20 million in other currencies and, perhaps most importantly, for a 16.5% stake in a revived Mt. Gox.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Has The U.S. Dollar Lost its Safe Haven Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The greenback isn't what it used to be. At least for now, when there's a "flight" to U.S. Treasuries; historically a sign of "safe haven" demand; the U.S. dollar has not only not benefited but has increasingly been on the losing end. Is this a temporary sign of special circumstances or has the dollar lost its safe haven appeal? There may be profound implications for investor's portfolios seeking downside protection.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Weak U.S. Housing Data Supports Euro / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the common currency moved higher against the U.S. dollar after data showed that the euro zone manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April from 53.0 in the previous month (while analysts had expected an unchanged reading). Later in the day, the Commerce Department showed that sales on new homes dropped 14.5%, which supported the euro as well. Whether these positive numbers are in line with the technical picture of EUR/USD?
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
U.S. Dollar Crash In a Matter of Months? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
In case you were wondering there is a Comex precious metal options expiration on Thursday the 24th.
Since the expiration is for the inactive month of May, I am wondering if they are not going to do an early hit with a head fake on this one as the day comes.
Monday, April 21, 2014
British Pound Looks Vulnerable At The Highs / Currencies / British Pound
By: Richard_Cox
Over the last year, the British Pound has been one of the strongest active currencies in the foreign exchange market. Most of the trends in this section of the market have been working off of the clear weakness in the US Dollar. But when we start to look at the underlying economic fundamentals (inflation rates, broader growth figures), the recent moves start to look extreme and overdone. So while this does not mean that we will see the Pound start to drop like a rock in the next few weeks, it is starting to look as though the upside in the currency is limited.
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Monday, April 14, 2014
Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In not too many words: we don’t support any short-term positions just now.
First of all, a security update coming from Bitcointalk, a forum for Bitcoin aficionados. The following message was posted on the site:
A bug in OpenSSL, used by Bitcoin-Qt/Bitcoin Core, could allow your bitcoins to be stolen. Immediately updating Bitcoin Core to 0.9.1 is required in some cases, especially if you're using 0.9.0.
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Friday, April 11, 2014
This Bitcoin Price Rally Might Be a Fake One / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
Cutting right to the chase: we still don’t support any short-term positions in the market.
Yesterday, we wrote that Chinese Bitcoin exchanges BTC100 and BTCTrade were ordered by the Chinese government to close their bank accounts used to receive customer deposits. Today, Reuters reported that another exchange, Huobi.com, issued a statement that the bank handling their account would close them by Apr. 18.
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