Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 02, 2020
US Dollar Staying Engulfed in Bearish Bias Amid U.S Presidential Debate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index declined yesterday, while the precious metals market moved higher, possibly due to the relatively “turbulent” pre-election debate in the U.S. But still, did anything actually change regarding the outlook?
Not really.
As we have stated in our previous analyses, while gold and the rest of the precious metals market will probably decline significantly in the following weeks, and that a short-term correction would not be surprising at all. The same holds true for the USD Index, except that the direction of any possible moves could be considered the opposite.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 28, 2020
It’s Time to Dump Argentina’s Peso / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In addition to facing an acute COVID-19 crisis, Argentina’s deadbeat economy is collapsing, and, as usual, the inflation noose is around Argentines’ necks. Argentina’s official inflation rate for August 2020 is 40.70 percent per year. And, for once, Argentina’s official rate is fairly close to the rate that I calculate each day using high-frequency data and purchasing-power-parity theory, a methodology that has long proved its worth when compared with official statistics. Today, I measure Argentina’s annual inflation rate at 37 percent, but probably not for long — the noose is generally followed by the trapdoor.
As Milton Friedman put it in his 1987 New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics entry “Quantity Theory of Money” (QTM), “The conclusion (of the QTM) is that substantial changes in prices or nominal income are almost always the result of changes in the nominal supply of money.” The income form of the QTM states that: MV=Py, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the price level, and y is real GDP (national income).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So far, 2020 has been an incredible and challenging year for the many markets, and that does not exclude gold, arguably one of the most important and most valuable commodities in the world.
The yellow metal’s price is influenced by a myriad of obvious and non-obvious short and long-term factors, such as the long-term turning point and its self-similar pattern. In recent months, we’ve already discussed the presence of gold’s long-term turning point in broad detail. Furthermore, only a couple of weeks ago, we’ve learned about the powerful self-similarity pattern in gold, making sense of similarly shaped patterns in the marketplace over different periods.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 21, 2020
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Travis_Bard
...
Monday, September 07, 2020
Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Bitcoin collapsed near Triple Fib Amplitude Arcs – is this a sign of pending reversal for other assets?
- It is very likely that Bitcoin price levels will fall below the May through July levels, near $9k in an attempt to identify new support levels. The $8k level would be the next downside price target. Beyond that, possibly $7k or even $6k.
- Gold and Silver will move lower before going higher as a potential price collapse in Bitcoin suggests general market fear is hitting all global assets.
- As other assets decline in valuation levels, the US Dollar will likely be viewed as the strongest currency to own and rise.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
The Rise And Rise Of Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Sumeet_Manhas
...
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Smart & Reliable Forex Trading Suitable for Beginners – ROFX Review / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Forex trading has been historically very risky but can be profitable if one plays their cards right. However, for novice traders, forex trading poses a lot of risks and can lead to significant losses. With the ROFX approach, however, the process has become straightforward. ROFX is an international broker providing forex trading services flexibly and simply.
Created in 2009, a team of experts and developers created ROFX to cater to the novice trader mainly. It allows any trader with a minimum experience in forex to succeed. Here is an honest review of ROFX after taking a look at all its features and advantages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 20, 2020
US Dollar Setting Up for Potential Upside Election Trend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- Presidential election cycles drive US Dollar trends.
- US Dollar expected to rise before the election and then stall right before the day of the election.
- Money will start shifting away from the stock market now, and traders will likely target safe-haven investments and undervalued traditional investments (dividends, blue chips, utilities, energy, bonds, consumer service and supplies, and possibly technology suppliers) going forward.
- The potential for a US Dollar upside price rally after the elections (just like the 2013~2014 setup) is a very valid expectation from a technical analysis perspective.
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Technical Analysis Points to US Dollar Upside Potential / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Article Highlights:
- The US Dollar Presidential Price Cycle indicates rising US Dollar
- The US Dollar is not the best asset, but rather the best of all currencies
- Price Relationships Suggest The US Dollar Is Currently Undervalued
- How The Presidential Price Cycle May Create Opportunities in Precious Metals and the US Stock Market
It’s been a while since we published an article about the US Dollar and this is the perfect time to discuss that is likely to happen over the next 6 to 18+ months. The US Presidential Election is just around the corner and traders/investors are certain to interpret the uncertainty of the US Presidential Election cycle, and the pending policy and liability related changes, as a warning that equities and the US Dollar may be in for a wild ride over the next 6+ months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Aussie Dollar Soars to Multi-Month High: You Can't Have Your Fed Stimulus Boost AND Eat It Too / Currencies / Austrailia
By: EWI
This chart of the Australian Dollar/US Dollar exchange shows that since late March, the dollar-down-under has trended:
UP... to its highest level in 15 -- no, make that 18 months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
We are well into the second half of 2020. Are you on track to meet your 2020 trading goals?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) can help -- free.
For a limited time only, EWI is making 3 FREE resources available to help your trading ($739 total value).
There is no catch, and no credit card is required.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 04, 2020
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
As July comes to a close, gold is up better than 9% for the month and has advanced nearly 30% for the year.
Gold’s record-setting rise has been driven by Federal Reserve stimulus, dollar weakness, and strong safe-haven investment demand. Even the Wall Street-centric financial media is taking note:
Financial News Anchor #1: Gold is shining once again, this morning. The spot price is touching all-time highs, as the dollar index sits around a two-year low.
Financial News Anchor #2: Those gold prices have hit an all-time high. The spot price of gold reaching a record.
Gold traditionally surges in times of turmoil. In this case, the economic impact of the pandemic, and those US/China tensions. They are sending investors to this safe haven. But the Federal Reserve's monetary easing measures, they also have a part to play in the price of gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 31, 2020
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As US economy is heading toward its disastrous 2nd quarter results, the Trump administration is considering the expansion of the trade war to finance, which could destabilize the US dollar and derail the post-pandemic global economy.
After its failure in the COVID-19 containment and the expected -53 percent plunge of real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter, President Trump’s re-election campaign is in serious trouble. To deflect the blame, his administration has launched a series of provocative measures against China thereby fueling elevated bilateral tensions.
Worse, the White House is reportedly considering moving from a bilateral trade war to an effort to exclude China from the dollar-denominated international payment network. In Beijing, that would be seen as weaponization of US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 27, 2020
US Dollar Cycle Review / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.
Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.
The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals (like: inflation, money supply, banking risk, interest rates, market risk) and subject to another market like COVID19 smash the fundamentals suggest a slump in the US dollar in the immediate short term future.
Friday, July 10, 2020
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets kicked off trading for the third quarter by posting modest declines across the board.
However, the technical bigger picture for gold and silver still looks strong after the metals recorded impressive gains in Q2. Gold finished out the quarter trading at its highest level since 2012. That has bulls anticipating new all-time highs for the monetary metal in the near future.
Even though gold is outperforming the stock market in 2020, it isn’t getting much attention from the Wall Street-centric financial media. We suspect public interest in precious metals will begin to surge once gold hits a new record and trades over $2,000. Then the media will be forced to start paying more attention to the sector.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 01, 2020
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
June started off with speculators decidedly negative toward the U.S. dollar.
On the second day of the month, the Financial Times said:
Wall Street strategists say dollar could be set for "dramatic" falls
Elliott Wave International's June 10 U.S. Short Term Update, a three-times-a-week publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, took note of the bearish sentiment when it showed this chart and said:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Bob_Kirtley
Introduction
We are presently enduring a period of great change due to the Coronavirus which has already cost many lives and inflicted untold damage to the global economy.
Alongside the damage caused by this virus the world has also entered a recession having been through an eleven-year period of expansion.
To make matters worse many nations are shouldering massive debts raising questions about the possibility of debt defaults on a grand scale.
Today we are taking a peek into what the future might look like and it is not a pretty sight.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 29, 2020
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?
Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?
The question is always what will the future price action look like ?
This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.
There are two theories: Gann Angles and Ney Angles. Gann angles are a fixed set of degrees (see below) and these degrees are based loosely on astrology and the regular cycle of planets around the sun. Gann said price would move between these angles as the angles acted as like critical support and resistance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2020
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
where-is-the-us-dollar-trend-headedJesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.
A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.
The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.
The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2020
It’s Time for Private Cryptocurrency Boards / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Steve_H_Hanke
With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, currencies around the world took a deep dive. To name but a few casualties: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Iran, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Not only have the currencies in these countries plunged, but the burden of their foreign debts has soared. Exchange-rate instability is a curse.
Indeed, currency instability, banking crises, soaring inflation, sovereign-debt defaults, and economic booms and busts all have a common source: exchange-rate instability. The ills induced by exchange-rate instability bring with them calls for policy changes. Karl Schiller, the German Finance Minister from 1966 until 1972, understood this simple fact. Schiller’s mantra was clear and uncompromising: “Stability is not everything, but without stability, everything is nothing.” Well, Schiller’s mantra is my mantra.
Read full article... Read full article...