Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, July 09, 2010
Is the Squeeze Over in the Dollar Euro? / Currencies / Euro
Despite the Dollar’s recent weakness against the Euro, we sense the market is undergoing a correction rather than a trend reversal. The situation in the Euro zone remains delicate. Indeed, the only thing that has changed in recent weeks is that the endless stream of negative commentary about the Euro zone has virtually dried up.
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Friday, July 09, 2010
Bull Signal in British Pound, GBP/USD Now in Place / Currencies / British Pound
When we last looked at GBP/USD the chart had tested a long term 76.4% retracement level, where the initial reaction had been positive. But the required bullish signals from the Daily chart were not in place – and they are now.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Stronger Chinese Yuan Investor Profit Opportunities / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
You probably had some Fourth of July celebrations on your mind last Friday, but there were some important developments for anybody invested in or thinking about getting into the Chinese stock market.
The Chinese yuan rose to a modern-era high against the U.S. dollar last week after the People’s Bank of China set the dollar-yuan exchange rate at 6.7720 yuan per dollar, a record low since China permitted its currency to trade against other foreign currencies in 1980.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Floating Exchange Rates, Scheme to Embezzle the Dollar Balances of Surplus Countries / Currencies / US Dollar
Milton Friedman's theory of floating exchange rates, on which the international monetary system has been based since 1971, has given rise to a coercive regime in the sense that IMF statutes forbid member countries to stabilize the value of their currencies. A country attempting to do that is branded "a currency manipulator" and is threatened with trade sanctions. The prohibition is understandable. It is designed to protect the scheme whereby the dollar balances of the surplus countries are stealthily embezzled. It works as follows.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
The Euro Makes a Stand / Currencies / Euro
After dipping just below the 1.20 level, the euro had a brief rally that pushed this currency back up to the 1.24/1.25 area. This corrective rally did not change the longer-term outlook for this market.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
EUR/USD Trying to Establish a Base / Currencies / Euro
Earlier in June the Daily EUR/USD chart had shown signs of bear fatigue, although subsequent action proved muted on the upside. However, Thursday’s strength re-focuses attention on nearby resistances, through which a better, albeit temporary, recovery beckons.
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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Dollar Hammered by Yen as Job Concerns Remain / Currencies / US Dollar
The dollar has quietly slipped against the yen in this week’s currency trade while remaining mostly flat against other major counterparts including the Euro and British Pound. A less than stellar round of economic reports Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (June 30) morning have cast a dark cloud over optimism for economic recovery.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Why I'm 100% Certain the Euro Will Fall / Currencies / Euro
Tom Dyson writes: I call it my "broken dam" indicator...
Imagine trying to dam a powerful river. You build the thickest dam you can afford. For a while, the dam holds the water back and a reservoir forms. As the reservoir gets bigger, the water's pressure grows. Eventually, the weight of the reservoir exceeds the strength of the concrete, and the dam starts crumbling. Sooner or later, the reservoir ends up in the valley... along with your dam.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Is it Time to Bet Against the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The U.S. dollar has been one of the world's strongest currencies in the first part of 2010.
And it's no wonder. The Greek debt crisis continues to threaten Europe's overall health, and could unleash an entirely new contagion on the rest of the global economy. Then there's China, - the engine of world growth during much of the financial crisis - which now appears to face the near-term triple threat of slowing growth, accelerating inflation and workplace unrest. Add in concerns about commodity prices and global debt levels and it's easy to see why currency investors have sought the safe haven of the U.S. dollar.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Suiting Up for a Post U.S. Dollar World / Currencies / Fiat Currency
The global financial crisis is playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
Will USD/CAD Bounce Off 76.4% Support Continue? / Currencies / Canadian $
An initial recovery off long term 76.4% support in USD/CAD has been followed by a deep setback, which has just found support from a shorter term 76.4% level. Bulls waiting in the wings now need this to continue, breaching certain resistance points.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Financial Crisis Asian Currency Markets Insatiability as South Korea Imposes Currency Controls / Currencies / South Korea
Kavaljit Singh writes: On June 13, 2010, South Korea announced a series of currency controls to protect its economy from external shocks. The new currency controls are much wider in scope than foreign exchange liquidity controls announced earlier in 2009.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Euro Under Pressure Means Forex Trading Should Not be Foreign to You / Currencies / Euro
It's the biggest market in the world and is traded 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and therefore one that is impossible to ignore. I'm speaking, of course, about the forex market.
The question is, is this the tail that's wagging the dog? Meaning, is the forex market, mainly the euro, dictating the trend in American and European equity markets.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Euro to Fall Further and Gold Breaks Traditional Relationship With Dollar / Currencies / Euro
The devaluation of the euro in recent months, which has continued in spite of huge political attempts to reverse the trend, has recently accelerated.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
What if the Chinese Let the Renminbi Float and Nothing Much Happened? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced Saturday night that it would gradually relax the peg between the renminbi and a basket of currencies (primarily the U.S. dollar). This is the resumption of a policy the PBOC had initiated in mid 2005 and suspended in mid 2008. Although there are political motivations for the resumption of a controlled renminbi float - to deflect scapegoating at the upcoming Toronto G-20 confab and to get Senator Schumer off the backs of Chinese officials - there is a domestic economic motivation as well.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Implications of Chinese Yuan Appreciation / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Axel Merk and Kieran Osborne write: Recently, there has been a lot of news and evidence supporting the likelihood of the Chinese authorities allowing the Chinese currency, the yuan or renminbi (CNY), to trade within a wider trading band.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Why New China Flexibility of the Yuan Will Not Mean its Appreciation, Nor Gold's Fall / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
With China dropping the 'peg' to the U.S. $, the financial world is expecting it to appreciate up to 30% over time. But we don't expect this at all. China has interests and will do no-one favors unless they are in China's interests. There are some who say it is in China's interests as they may well need to cap rising inflation or cheapen imports. More expensive Chinese exports can still effectively penetrate world markets? But China is a very different economy to any in the West and economic rules that apply to the West have to be modified in the East. So, what will happen to the Yuan now?"
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Monday, June 21, 2010
U.S. Dollar Top Forecast, How to Play the Bear Side / Currencies / US Dollar
Larry D. Spears writes: In spite of an assortment of economic uncertainties at home, the U.S. dollar has been the star of the currency world for most of 2010. Spooked by persistent and seemingly insurmountable debt problems east of the Atlantic and the specter of unsustainable growth and potential inflation on the Pacific side of the globe, savers and investors fled European and Asian currencies for the relative safe haven of the dollar.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
China Yuan Currency Climbs Most in 20 Months / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
Stock and commodities futures are up headed into Monday's trading on news that China has "unpegged" the Yuan. Please consider Yuan Climbs Most in 20 Months After China Signals End to Peg.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Asian Currency Crisis, Indonesia Moves to Tame Speculative Capital Flows / Currencies / Asian Economies
Kavaljit Singh writes: Within three days of South Korea imposing currency controls, Indonesia (a member of G-20) unveiled several policy measures to regulate potentially destabilizing capital flows. The policy announcement by Indonesia is the latest initiative by emerging markets to tame speculative money which could pose a threat to their economies and financial systems.
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