Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 17, 2017
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security - most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed.
However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design it does not fully keep up with inflation.
Sound like an obscure difference?
"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months - to cover 12 months of expenses each year.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends.
Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly.
In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Over Two Thirds of Global GDP Is Entering an Inflationary Shock / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The world is careening towards an inflationary shock.
As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what’s happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what’s about to take place.
Below is a chart you have to see.
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Thursday, November 02, 2017
More Trade Barriers Are Coming—Make Sure You’re On The Right Side / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : If you think economics is boring, bring up “free trade” and see what happens. I guarantee sparks will fly.
Some people preach free trade’s many blessings. Others curse the very idea, insisting free trade hurts honest working people.
Lately, this has become more than a theoretical argument.
President Trump came into office pledging to renegotiate or cancel trade agreements he thought unfair to the US. Meanwhile, the UK seems headed toward a “hard Brexit” from the European Union.
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Thursday, November 02, 2017
The Magnitude of Job Loss We Will See in the Next 20 Years Is Staggering / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
In the next 20 years, we will see more change and improvement than we’ve seen in the last hundred. Think where we were 100 years ago and how much has changed since then. That much and more is going to happen in the next two decades.
Global society really is going to transform that fast.
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Monday, October 23, 2017
Germany’s Delegation To Russia Signals That Merkel Is Looking For New Allies / Economics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : A delegation of executives from major German corporations recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Such delegations are not unusual. Sometimes it is routine, sometimes a courtesy. But occasionally, it has significance. In the case of Russia-Germany relations, such meetings are always potentially significant.
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Friday, October 20, 2017
Here’s the US’s Biggest Vulnerability in NAFTA Negotiations / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement's survival has once again been brought into question.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put it at a disadvantage. For their part, the Canadians have been quiet.
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Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Here's our challenge.
In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs. So our challenge is to try and make monetary economics, a subject that most people would find duller than watching paint dry on a wall, understandable and, dare I say it, fun! It's a big ask but we like a test, and so here is the first in our Deflation Basics Series -- The Quantity Theory of Money.
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Monday, October 16, 2017
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.
Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.
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Monday, October 16, 2017
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions.
Some Thoughts And Assertions
An inflation target implies that modest inflation is actually a good thing. This is simply wrong. Inflation is a “stealth tax” through which governments confiscate a bit of savers’ wealth each year without admitting it. If explained honestly such a trick would be a political loser always and everywhere.
Saturday, October 14, 2017
Is U.S. Unemployment at the Bottom? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate and the markets have a direct opposite connection to each other. When one goes down (unemployment), the other (stock market) goes up.
The opposite is also true.
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Friday, October 06, 2017
Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World / Economics / Eastern Europe
By: John_Mauldin
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade.
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Thursday, September 28, 2017
The Koyaanisqatsi Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The film Koyaanisqatsi was released in 1982. The title means ‘life out of balance’ in the language of the Hopi, a Native American tribe who live(d) mainly in what is now north-east Arizona. It is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music by Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. There are no actors, and no dialogue. Philip Glass’s music underlies a series of film fragments that contrast the beauty of American nature with the noise and pollution mankind has added to it. Wikipedia:
Read full article... Read full article...The film consists primarily of slow motion and time-lapse footage of cities and many natural landscapes across the United States. The visual tone poem contains neither dialogue nor a vocalized narration: its tone is set by the juxtaposition of images and music. Reggio explained the lack of dialogue by stating “it’s not for lack of love of the language that these films have no words. It’s because, from my point of view, our language is in a state of vast humiliation. It no longer describes the world in which we live.”
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
Within the Federal Reserve sometime in 1996, a discussion took place among FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members regarding the subject of inflation targeting. Federal Reserve District Governor (San Francisco) Janet Yellen believed that a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market. Her preferred “target” was 2%. She asked Chairman (at the time) Alan Greenspan his preference.
The Chairman replied. “I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.”
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Monday, September 18, 2017
Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies / Economics / Inflation
By: James_Quinn
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli
Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.
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Saturday, September 16, 2017
Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Predictability.People.
Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.
It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Friday, September 15, 2017
Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
Summary:
1) Financial analysis of the three way relationship between interest rates, inflation and the U.S. national debt.
2) Higher interest rates causing higher interest payments on the $20 trillion national debt would ordinarily cause soaring deficits over time.
3) Detailed analysis of the "loophole", which is that if inflation even moderately increases - then interest rates can rise without exploding the real debt.
4) This simultaneous increase in interest rates and inflation would have a major impact on all markets, as well as long term retirement planning.
5) The logical response to rising interest rates may be to sharpen one's focus on how to better deal with higher rates of inflation over the long term.
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Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Harvey Will Reflect in Economic Data as Growth—That Might Mislead the Fed into Another Policy Error / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc on South Texas and Louisiana. As a lifelong Texan, I have many friends in that region. They’ve lived through many storms and normally take what nature throws at them in stride.
Not this time.
I am seeing headlines calling this a thousand-year flood. It seems that over 100,000 homes in Houston alone were flooded. Harvey meant business. Recovering from this storm will take a long time and a lot of resources.
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Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus circus that the mainstream press journalists rely upon to produce their daily copy i.e. economists, have once more been caught by surprise as UK inflation rockets higher to 2.9% for August up from 2.6% for July. Now standing on the threshold of breaking above 3% as the implications of sterling's sharp drop in the wake of the Brexit vote continues to feed through to rising import prices and therefore providing persistent upwards pressure on shop prices as suppliers restock at much worse exchange rates that already depressed retailers such as the big supermarkets had delayed fully implementing that I have ben warning all year was likely to result in a crisis for the retail sector during 2017, that literally faces a perfect storm which could even result in a Woolworth's moment...