Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 11, 2017
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Damage, America Can’t Afford to Rebuild / Economics / US Debt
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A number of people have argued over the past few days that Hurricane Harvey will NOT boost the US housing market. As if any such argument would or should be required. Hurricane Irma will not provide any such boost either. News about the ‘resurrection’ of New Orleans post-Katrina has pretty much dried up, but we know scores of people there never returned, in most cases because they couldn’t afford to.
And Katrina took place 12 years ago, well before the financial crisis. How do you think this will play out today? Houston is a rich city, but that doesn’t mean it’s full of rich people only. Most homeowners in the city and its surroundings have no flood insurance; they can’t afford it. But they still lost everything. So how will they rebuild?
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Sunday, September 10, 2017
Another Demographic D-Day is Coming for Japan / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Harry_Dent
D-Day.Demographic death day.
Maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long term.
And Japan is facing its second one.
Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked – forever – in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
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Saturday, September 09, 2017
Deflation and the Markets; are deflationary forces here to stay / Economics / Deflation
By: Sol_Palha
Machines are worshipped because they are beautiful and valued because they confer power; they are hated because they are hideous and loathed because they impose slavery. Bertrand Russell
Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop. While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs. As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.
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Saturday, September 02, 2017
Leading China Expert Lays Down 9 Major Trends That Now Drive The Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Leland Miller is a leading expert on China’s financial system and a good friend of mine.
They regularly interview (if memory serves correctly) about 2000 large Chinese companies in every sector to get a good idea of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy.
There is nothing else like their work, and anybody who is investing large sums or who just does business in China gladly pays the six-figure price to get access to their data and research.
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Wednesday, August 30, 2017
US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.
Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.
Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.
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Saturday, August 26, 2017
China’s Strategy for the Global Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In the fall of 1993, I was sitting in class in grad school. We were using case studies to explore business management decisions. My professor walked through the history of Otis Elevators, noting that the company had reached market saturation and had choices to make.I was sort of paying attention… sort of not.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2017
These 2 Charts Reinforce My Belief That We’ll Face A Recession In 12–18 Months / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Stock valuations are the discounted values of future earnings. Future earnings depend on future revenue, which may diminish whenever the future includes a recession. So, broad economic conditions are a big factor to watch in stock valuation.
Broad economic conditions depend ultimately on the consumer’s ability and willingness to spend money. And July’s retail sales report gave us a peek at that.
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Monday, August 21, 2017
The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
My good friend Gary Shilling draws some crucial distinctions with respect to wage and jobs and explains why our perplexing US labor market is actually quite rational.
Gary and I share a fundamental optimism regarding our prospects for long-term economic growth, and in this report, he tells us why.
This kind of in-depth dissection of macro trends is what Gary is known for. So without further ado, I’ll let him take it from here.
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Friday, August 11, 2017
The Shocking Economic Truth About Russia / Economics / Russia
By: Harry_Dent
The Russian drama seems to intensify with each passing hour.I certainly have my opinion on the matter, as, no doubt, do you. But it’s not my opinion that I want to share with you today. Instead, I want to share two charts that may well shed new light on recent events…
Here’s the first. I warn you, it’s shocking.
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Tuesday, August 08, 2017
Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? / Economics / Inflation
By: Sol_Palha
Bankers know that history is inflationary and that money is the last thing a wise man will hoard.
William J. Durant
The Fed has been trying to create the illusion that inflation is an issue. The guys from the hard money camp also maintain that inflation is an issue and to a point they are right. Their definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply. The Fed, on the other hand, defines inflation as an increase in prices. The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply; rising prices are just the symptom of the disease. This article from mises.org summarises this concept quite succulently
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Saturday, August 05, 2017
China’s Growth Driven By Shadow Banking Is Potential Trigger For Next Global Recession / Economics / China
By: John_Mauldin
China is unstoppable.
GDP growth has slowed down to 6.9%, according to official numbers. The numbers are likely inflated, but the boom is still underway.
Reasonable estimates from knowledgeable observers still have China growing at 4–5%, which is rather remarkable given China’s size.
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Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Greenspan Warns Moving Into “Stagflation Not Seen Since the 1970s” / Economics / Inflation
By: GoldCore
– Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation
– “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s”
– This will not be “good for asset prices”
– 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3%
– Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’
– “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range
– Inflation will not stay at historically low levels
– Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value”
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan
Friday, July 28, 2017
BEA US Economy Q2 2017 Estimates GDP Growth At 2.56% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.56% annual rate, up +1.14% from a downward revised first quarter.
Consumer spending rebounded, growing at a +1.93% annualized rate during the quarter, up +1.18% from the prior quarter and very similar to the fourth quarter of 2016. The inventory contraction of the prior quarter essentially disappeared (-0.02%), as did the previous robust growth in commercial fixed investment (at only +0.36%). Governmental spending rose slightly (+0.12%), reversing the prior quarter's contraction, and the growth rates for both exports (+0.48%) and imports (-0.31%) moderated.
Friday, July 28, 2017
One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis.
By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my readers and fellow analysts told me I was way too bearish.
Turned out the losses topped well over $2 trillion and triggered the financial crisis and Great Recession.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Trump Fails To Understand One Critical Thing—Our Trade Partners Have Options, Too / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
Despite heavy opposition, Trump is more insistent than ever on imposing quotas or tariffs on steel imports.
However, it makes a big difference whether the administration decides to go with quotas on current steel imports or initiate a tariff. Quotas would be harmful, but a tariff would be far worse.
Let’s look at the numbers to see who exactly would actually be damaged.
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Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Here’s Why China’s One Belt, One Road Is Doomed To Failure / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is China’s ambitious initiative unveiled in 2013. In fact, it’s two plans combined to form a larger framework of new trade routes.
The first of these is One Belt (the orange line in the above map). It refers to the development of new infrastructure—particularly railroads and highways—to connect China’s interior provinces with Europe by way of Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. It’s a tall order, and expectations are low that China would be able to build them.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario / Economics / Inflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Lior Gantz, founder of Wealth Research Group, analyzes how inflation will likely take off in the U.S., and why all of the condensed energy dammed up by the QE programs and the Fed asset purchases will explode all at once.
Wealth Research Group published an important update on the precious metals sector, which is trading in an unusual pattern, and how the bottom for junior mining shares is likely to play itself out in six to eight months.
For over nine years, central banks have been the front and center of the financial universe.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Why Jobs Growth No Longer Induces Wage Growth in America / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dan_Steinbock
Or The Eclipse of the Phillips Curve in AmericaWhile the Fed’s continued tightening may suppress growth in emerging economies, US labor market may not be as strong as recent reports suggest.
US experienced strong job growth in June, when the economy created 222,000 net new jobs, which exceeded analyst expectations. At the Federal Reserve, the jobs report boosted confidence US economy is on the track for new rate hikes in the fall.
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