Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
The Jobs Report Misled You—Job and Wage Growth Are Actually Decelerating / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The monthly jobs report is one of the most important statistics for investors.
Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor, which I covered many times in my newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here). But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall / Economics / Stagflation
By: GoldCore
– UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years
– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages
– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months
– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October
– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing
– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation
Friday, December 08, 2017
4 Charts That Show How Trump Tax Cuts Will Trigger A Recession / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Not so long ago, I explained why tax cuts won’t stimulate the economy as much as Republicans think.
In short, most CEOs say they will use any tax savings for stock buybacks or dividends, not new hiring or expansion.
But what if, instead of little or no growth, this tax bill sets off an outright contraction?
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease).
To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.”
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017
An "Unprestigious" Preview of Debt Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
An "Unprestigious" Preview of Debt Deflation
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Monday, December 04, 2017
McKinsey: Automation May Wipe Out 1/3 Of America’s Workforce By 2030 / Economics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
McKinsey & Co. has come out with a comprehensive report on the predicted near-future effects of automation on employment.
Entitled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” the report takes us a big step closer to understanding the massive impacts of the transformation we are now embarked upon.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Why a Corporate Tax Cut Won’t Boost Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : The House and Senate are considering tax legislation that will add $1.5 trillion to annual deficits over the next 10 years, according to their own numbers.
This is okay, we're told, because the tax cuts will stoke economic growth, delivering added tax revenue that offsets the rate reductions.
Note the bigger point here.
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Monday, November 27, 2017
8 Charts That Show How Insane the Economy Is Today / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical economic interventions from our central bankers that fill the daily economic headlines.
I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to "WTF" moments.
All that said, the economists who designed these interventions had their reasons. They thought lower interest rates and liquidity injections would create jobs, spur investment, and eventually produce inflation.
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Monday, November 27, 2017
Overcoming Decades of Missed Foreign Direct Investment in the Philippines / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Since the 1980s, economic success in Asia has often relied on foreign investment, at least initially. Last week, President Duterte took a decisive step toward that direction. Why has the change taken so long? And why is the devil in the details? In the third quarter, the Philippine economy grew 6.9%, which made it Asia’s second fastest-growing economy after Vietnam. But unlike Vietnam, which has reaped many benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI), the Philippines has not.
Again and again, former President Benigno Aquino III acknowledged the need to boost FDI during his reign. Yet, the main challenge to attract FDI has been the 60/40 foreign ownership law, which Aquino neglected to confront between 2010 and 2016.
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Monday, November 20, 2017
Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” / Economics / Money Supply
By: F_F_Wiley
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates.
Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures. Economists and pundits debated the Fed’s preferred measures while concocting their own home-brewed variations.
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Friday, November 17, 2017
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security - most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed.
However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design it does not fully keep up with inflation.
Sound like an obscure difference?
"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months - to cover 12 months of expenses each year.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends.
Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly.
In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them.
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Friday, November 10, 2017
US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Over Two Thirds of Global GDP Is Entering an Inflationary Shock / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The world is careening towards an inflationary shock.
As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what’s happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what’s about to take place.
Below is a chart you have to see.
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Thursday, November 02, 2017
More Trade Barriers Are Coming—Make Sure You’re On The Right Side / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : If you think economics is boring, bring up “free trade” and see what happens. I guarantee sparks will fly.
Some people preach free trade’s many blessings. Others curse the very idea, insisting free trade hurts honest working people.
Lately, this has become more than a theoretical argument.
President Trump came into office pledging to renegotiate or cancel trade agreements he thought unfair to the US. Meanwhile, the UK seems headed toward a “hard Brexit” from the European Union.
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Thursday, November 02, 2017
The Magnitude of Job Loss We Will See in the Next 20 Years Is Staggering / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
In the next 20 years, we will see more change and improvement than we’ve seen in the last hundred. Think where we were 100 years ago and how much has changed since then. That much and more is going to happen in the next two decades.
Global society really is going to transform that fast.
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Monday, October 23, 2017
Germany’s Delegation To Russia Signals That Merkel Is Looking For New Allies / Economics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : A delegation of executives from major German corporations recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Such delegations are not unusual. Sometimes it is routine, sometimes a courtesy. But occasionally, it has significance. In the case of Russia-Germany relations, such meetings are always potentially significant.
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Friday, October 20, 2017
Here’s the US’s Biggest Vulnerability in NAFTA Negotiations / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement's survival has once again been brought into question.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put it at a disadvantage. For their part, the Canadians have been quiet.
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Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Here's our challenge.
In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs. So our challenge is to try and make monetary economics, a subject that most people would find duller than watching paint dry on a wall, understandable and, dare I say it, fun! It's a big ask but we like a test, and so here is the first in our Deflation Basics Series -- The Quantity Theory of Money.
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Monday, October 16, 2017
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.
Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.
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