Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Why U.S. Interest Rates They’re Not Headed Up Anytime Soon / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: DailyGainsLetter
George Leong writes: The Federal Reserve has spoken and to no one’s surprise, there was really nothing new from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who did as was expected after shaving off another $10.0 billion in monthly bond purchases. The Federal Reserve will cut the remaining $15.0 billion in October, bringing its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to an end.
What the stock market here and around the world also heard was that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its near-zero interest rate policy for a “considerable time” after the QE3 cuts.
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Monday, September 22, 2014
Interest Rate Doves Don't Know History / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
A wise saying goes like this; "Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it." So ask yourself; what is the fate of those who seem to have absolutely no recollection of events that happened just a few years ago?
We are nearing the end of 2014, and to the debt markets, it is almost as if the 2008 economic collapse never happened. It appears that borrowers and lenders are suffering from a severe case of collective amnesia. Yes, consumer debt levels took a slight breather in 2009-10. But today, total consumer credit in the U.S. has risen by 22 percent over the past three years, and at this point 56 percent of all Americans have a subprime credit rating.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
The End of Fed Tapering and Government Funding / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Last year markets behaved nervously on rumours that QE3 would be tapered; this year we have lived with the fact. It turned out that there has been little or no damage to markets, with bond yields at historic lows and equity markets hitting new highs. This contrasts with the ending of QE1 and QE2, which were marked by falls in the S&P 500 Index of 9% and 11.6% respectively. Presumably the introduction of twist followed by QE3 was designed at least in part to return financial assets to a rising price trend, and tapering has been consistent with this strategy.
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
While many economists and market watchers have failed to notice, we have entered a new chapter in the short and checkered history of central banking. This paradigm shift, as yet unaddressed in the textbooks, changes the basic policy tools that have traditionally defined the sphere of macroeconomic decision-making.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Are Government Bonds Really ‘Safe’? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
By Dickson Buchanan Jr., Director of International Development:
One of the striking ironies of our modern economy is that government bonds are considered safe-haven investments, while gold is a “barbarous relic” to be avoided at all costs. Since the 2008 financial collapse, the bond market has been on a tear, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s endless interest rate suppression. This has only served to reinforce the traditional notion that government bonds are “safe.”Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Why Money Is Worse Than Debt / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Francis Schutte writes: Everybody has to spend energy, has to work for his living. This is true for Government as well as for the billionaires and for the ordinary employee. Nothing – except for sunshine and air – comes for free. Note that today, sometimes people even pay for sunshine (vacation) and air (airports in Venezuela).
Not hard to understand that today’s fairy tale of “Free Fiat Money” will have a bad ending…or is it? Few people seem to realize the dramatic situation we are in, and that the denial is fed by the propaganda sold by politicians through the mainstream media. The 4th generation (see Galbraith’s Age of Uncertainty) doesn’t seem to be mentally able to grasp the seriousness of the situation the world is in.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
The Truth Behind the Dangerous "Helicopter Money" Delusion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: Seeking out major trends and power shifts in the global economy is the part of my work that I enjoy most.
It's a lot of work, and needless to say, it involves constant research.
That's why a piece I recently read in Foreign Affairs absolutely shocked me...
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Central Bank Balance Bullying: Investor Implications / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
"Bullying" by the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan has been in place for up to six years, forcing not-so-mighty central banks, savers and investors to deal with the consequences. Understanding the dynamics may help investors to navigate what's ahead.
First, let's get one thing straight: it matters little what you; we; or anyone in the blogosphere thinks policy makers should do. We are bystanders that have to deal with the consequences of their actions. The cheapest action undertaken by policy makers is to coerce the markets with verbiage. Their words matter, as they control the printing presses. Having said this, if the words are not followed by action, at some point, the markets may call their bluff.
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Saturday, September 13, 2014
The Fed Has A Big Surprise Waiting For You / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The topic of potential interest rate hikes by central banks is no longer ever far from any serious mind interested in finance. Still, the consensus remains that it will take a while longer, it will take place in a very gradual fashion, and it will all be telegraphed through forward guidance to anyone who feels they have a need or a right to know. Sounds like complacency, doesn’t it?
Friday, September 12, 2014
Debt And The Decline Of Money / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Andrew_McKillop
Let it erode, Dump it or Deny it?
For some members of the loosely defined school of Kierkegaard, itself loosely descended from Nietzsche's nihilist school of philosophy, money is a trick invented by human beings to deny their cosmic responsibilities. They use money to create fake value in this world and depreciate the real value of celestial thought and the purpose of cosmic being. Even in this world however, devaluing or repudiating a national money is a time-worn trick for evading responsibilities – like paying debt.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Floating-Rate Funds Poised to Profit as Interest Rates Rise / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By Andrey Dashkov
Money can’t be this cheap forever. In other words, one of the most likely scenarios the US economy faces is rising interest rates. The current low-interest-rate climate is simply unsustainable. At some point—as it always does—the trend will turn around. We want to be prepared for that turn, and the right floating-rate fund can help.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Europe Takes the QE Baton / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
If the wide, wide world of investing doesn’t seem a little strange to you these days, it can only be because you’re not paying attention. If you’re paying attention, strange really isn’t the word you’re probably using in your day-to-day investing conversations; it may be more like weird or bizarre. It increasingly feels like we’re living in the world dreamed up by the creators of DC Comics back in the 1960s, called Bizarro World. In popular culture "Bizarro World" has come to mean a situation or setting that is weirdly inverted or opposite from expectations.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
10 Year U.S. Treasury Short Best Place to be Remainder of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Strategically Shorting Bonds
I have been shorting the 10 year Treasury strategically the last 6 months buying the oversold yield conditions right before the employment report ramp up in yields, it has been quite an effective trading strategy this year, and has contributed in part along with some oil and equity trades to being up over 30% versus the overall market returns for both bond and stock investors which we just approximate to the 10% range year to date depending upon exact portfolio mix.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
What Chimpanzees Can Teach Us about Convertible Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Don_Miller
In a renewed commitment to finally learn Spanish, one of my colleagues spent quite a bit of time this week awkwardly saying, “Qué es eso?” into the headset Rosetta Stone provides with its language learning programs. Translation: “What’s that?”
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Monday, September 08, 2014
U.S. Treasury Bull Market 33rd Anniversary of The Greatest Risk Adjusted Returns in Anglo-American History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jas_Jain
As we approach the 33rd anniversary of the bull market in the US Treasury 30-year bond, the up-trend in the price, or downtrend in the yield, is fully intact as can be seen in Figure 1.
Monday, September 08, 2014
As ISDAFIX Becomes Next LIBOR, Can GOFO Manage To Avoid The Spotlight? / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: GoldCore
In the wake of the recent LIBOR benchmark interest rate rigging scandal and successful prosecution of a number of global investment banks for participating in LIBOR manipulation, a new interest rate rigging scandal is gathering steam.
Allegations surfaced last year that ISDAFIX, a similar global interest rate benchmark, had been rigged by a group of global banks, and these allegations are under investigation by a number of regulators including the US CFTC and the UK FCA. While the regulators have not provided any feedback as of yet, the class action suits by impacted investors are now beginning.
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Sunday, September 07, 2014
Real U.S. Interest Rates and Future Chaos / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
The folks at Gresham’s Law just published a nifty interactive chart of real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) interest rates since the 1960s that explains a lot about today’s world.
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Sunday, September 07, 2014
The Simple Truth About QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s not a single day that we’re not treated to more smart treats about stimulus measures. Are they necessary, are they good, are they bad, who profits from them. It gets really long in the tooth. Today, former ECB head Trichet says unlimited stimulus ‘risks’ blowing bubbles. “Supplying unlimited amounts of liquidity at interest rates close to zero has “unintended counterproductive consequences.”
Saturday, September 06, 2014
Why There’s Just One Convertible Bond Fund You Should Hold Now / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By Andrey Dashkov
It might as well be July in San Francisco. There’s fog about why any investor would want to hold convertible bonds in her portfolio, and I’m here to clear that fog away. Their yields aren’t high, their credit ratings often look shaky, and the bonds themselves are quite hard to understand due to their hybrid nature and built-in options.
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Thursday, September 04, 2014
ECB Meets To Tackle Deflation While Ignoring Shrinkflation / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: GoldCore
ECB Meets in Frankfurt
As the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) convenes today in Frankfurt for its monthly policy meeting, markets are focusing on how the ECB will signal the initiation of its quantitative easing (QE) programme which is aimed at countering deflationary forces in the Eurozone.
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