Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
The Fed's Financial Crisis Balance Sheet Exit Strategy Dilemma / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Philipp_Bagus
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks currently face a dilemma. A strong central-bank balance sheet is essential for the quality of a currency and the stability of a financial system. Unfortunately, the financial crisis has seen substantial changes in the balance sheets of the world's major central banks.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Bank of England Keeps UK Real Interest Rate at Minus 1.1% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England as expected has kept the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% which translates into a real interest rate of -1.1% adjusted for CPI inflation of 1.6% which continues to seek to punish savers for the crimes of the bankers.
Friday, October 02, 2009
UK Treasury Bond Market, Surging Gilts Sleep Walking Toward Edge of a Cliff / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Gilt has remained well-supported over recent months despite some of the worst public sector borrowing data ever seen, and certainly in peace time. In recent days it has begun to surge -in line with or even better than other bond markets What then, as we have asked before, keeps this market up?
Thursday, October 01, 2009
U.S. Treasuries TLT on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we discussed with subscribers last evening, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) looked like they were in a high-level consolidation ahead of a thrust to the upside, which is exactly what has transpired so far here today, likely in reaction to disappointing data on initial Jobless Claims ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Employment Report.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Are U.S. Treasuries A Bubble Ready To Pop? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
The standard theory is that the price/cost of risk-free long-term debt is a function of (a) the cost of short-term debt plus (b) some function of the market's anticipation of the likely course of inflation or deflation over the term of the debt.
Governments (the Fed) can control short-term rate but they are at the mercy of markets to fix long-term rates. And of course markets are "efficient", unless of course there is a "bubble", when...Err...they are not.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
What the Fed Doesn’t Want You To Know About U.S. Debt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed’s FOMC announcement came out…
We got exactly what I expected, a kind of wishy-washy, “hedging our bets” statement from the Fed. You have to remember that Bernanke was Greenspan’s right hand man for much of the bubble days of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, so the guy is an expert at walking both sides of the line when it comes to policy and public statements.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
PIMCO's Bill Gross Bets On Deflation and U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
PIMCO's Bill Gross has a switch of heart. He has gone from hating treasuries to liking them. Please consider Pimco’s Gross Buys Treasuries Amid Deflation Concern.
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Saturday, September 26, 2009
The Federal Reserve Has Attempted to Corner the Credit Market / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
By: Submissions
Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz write: During a market corner, a buyer accumulates an asset with the intention of driving the price higher without any regard for its true value. Additionally, the buyer amasses such a large holding that market prices cannot remain elevated without continuous buying. For example, when the Hunt Brothers cornered the silver market, silver rose from $11 per ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980. Eventually, the Hunt Brothers stopped buying silver as they ran out of capital and the market for silver dried up. As happens with all market corners, when the buyer disappeared from the market, the price of silver spiraled downward. The Federal Reserve, knowingly or not, has cornered the credit market.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Impact of LIBOR Interest Rate Trends on Currencies / Interest-Rates / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
While FX trading seems to become increasingly bifurcated (broad USD weakness & broad JPY strength or vice versa), the unfolding trend remains a concerted move away from the QE currencies (USD, GBP) and into the commodity/high yielders as well as the EUR. Emerging talk on whether the US dollar has become the new low-yielding vehicle for carry trades financing equities, commodities and currencies vehicle highlights the difference between the USD and JPY carry trades.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Bailed Out Banks Not Lending, Sitting on Tax Payers Cash / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England has both pumped hundreds of billions of tax payer cash into the bankrupt banking sector and cut interest rates to near zero (0.5%) to enable the banks to have funds available to lend out to the wider economy. However the banks instead of lending this money out are in effect sitting on tax payer cash with a view to earning interest on the money at the Bank of England which is illustrated by a sharp drop in the interbank rate towards the base rate as the following graph illustrates.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
When Will the Fed Start Raising U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Calculated Risk has an interesting chart and discussion on the unemployment rate and Fed rate hikes.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Massive Relief for U.S. Homeowners and Trouble for the Banks / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Ellen_Brown
A landmark ruling in a recent Kansas Supreme Court case may have given millions of distressed homeowners the legal wedge they need to avoid foreclosure. In Landmark National Bank v. Kesler, 2009 Kan. LEXIS 834, the Kansas Supreme Court held that a nominee company called MERS has no right or standing to bring an action for foreclosure. MERS is an acronym for Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, a private company that registers mortgages electronically and tracks changes in ownership.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Bond Funds Price Change vs Volatility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Stock volatility versus price change gets a lot of financial media attention, but bonds don’t get so much.
Bonds are an important part of portfolios that deserve investigative attention too.
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Saturday, September 19, 2009
Keynesian Economics and Negative Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_North
There is considerable discussion about the possibility that the Federal Reserve could and possibly should create a monetary environment in which interest rates are negative.
Read full article... Read full article...First, why should it do this?
Friday, September 18, 2009
Easy-Money Fed Fueling U.S. Dollar “Carry Trades” / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Mike_Larson
A fascinating thing just occurred in the global interest rate market: For the first time since 1993, it became cheaper to borrow dollars than Japanese yen! The three-month dollar-based London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, slumped to 0.292 percent, compared with the yen-based LIBOR rate of 0.352 percent.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Jim Cramer Calling For A Top In US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
Jim Cramer is at it again. This time he is calling for a top in US Treasury Bonds. Mama mia, I am heading for the hills. Cramer is calling for higher interest rates, therefore it must be so.
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Thursday, September 17, 2009
The Looming Global Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Bob_Chapman
What do you do after you have zero interest rates and you have flooded the world with money and credit?
The answer is you attempt to fight off higher interest rates and see if you can dodge the inflation bubble that follows. The commitment for this current fiasco to save the world’s Illuminist banks has already caused an official debt responsibility for the US of more than $23 trillion or about 40% of world GDP. That is staggering and it is official. We wonder what the real figure is? It is also wise to remember that the Federal Reserve, and other reserve banks worldwide, all international, are responsible for the carnage we are witnessing.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Bullish Sentiment, Circumstances Are Different / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
If you have been paying attention the last couple of weeks, I have been warming up to bonds. However, earlier in the year, I thought that Treasury yields would head higher (i.e., bonds lower), and that this would result in a secular trend change. In other words, we would be embarking on a long period of increasing yield pressures. This did not come to pass although yields on the 10 year Treasury bond did reach 4.0%. Despite this failed signal, Treasury yields still have the technical characteristics of an asset poised to undergo a secular trend change, and by secular, I mean lasting years. But not now.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Are Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasury Bonds Being Faked? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Washingtons_Blog
Everyone knows that the American government is gaming the market for treasury bonds to some extent.
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Monday, September 14, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Trade Higher on Weak Economy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded mostly positive all week and followed the recent pattern of one ugly Friday alternating with one neutral Friday. This last one actually managed to eke out a small gain. The financial markets are shaping up to be a diverging tale of three themes. On the one hand we have the stock markets around the world relentlessly grinding to new highs, while on the other hand the bond market refuses to buckle as it continues to retain a strong safe haven bid. In the mean time, gold is also breaking out to the upside with some conviction. The yellow metal managed to achieve its highest weekly closing level ever at $1007 per ounce.
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