Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Origins of the Federal Reserve Banking System / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Murray_N_Rothbard
The Progressive Movement
The Federal Reserve Act of December 23, 1913, was part and parcel of the wave of Progressive legislation on local, state, and federal levels of government that began about 1900. Progressivism was a bipartisan movement that, in the course of the first two decades of the 20th century, transformed the American economy and society from one of roughly laissez-faire to one of centralized statism.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
The Sterling Interest Rate Yield Curve Steep and Steepening / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Friday, November 13, 2009
Buying Government Bonds is a Mugs Game / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
Suppose that I am thinking about buying a bond and its yield is 3.5 percent. This is a nominal yield before taxes and before accounting for price inflation. To estimate my real return, I need to estimate future price inflation. If, for example, I think that price inflation is going to be 3.0 percent, then I expect my before-tax yield will be only about 0.5 percent.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Governments in a Hurry to Borrow Cash to Re-Finance Debt / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Adrian_Ash
"With 30-year bond yields still lower than they were before last winter's wipe-out, there's an urgency about refinancing debt as 2010 draws near..."
IT'S NOT JUST the US Treasury that needs to borrow more, for longer, over the next few months and years.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Monetary Policy Outlook / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
By: RGE_Monitor
Deleted.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Municipal Bonds A Dangerous Investment For 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Abraham
Many times just using logic an investor can steer away from problems. It seemed forever municipal bonds were considered one of the safest investments. One did not get rich by investing in municipal bonds however they were consistent and the default possibility was almost not a possibility. Fast forward to 2009 municipal bonds have to be one of the scariest investment choices. All one has to do is to look at State by State finances to be aware.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Are US Treasuries About to Rally… or Crash? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Historically, because the US was the #1 superpower (and the largest economy in the world), Treasuries have generally held to be one of the very few “risk free” investments on the planet. Consequently, Treasuries are where money runs to hide when the rest of the financial world is in trouble.
You can see this in the below chart: as soon as the Financial Crisis began in earnest with the credit market lockup in July 2007, 30-Yr Treasuries broke above 112: a point of historical resistance. This told us two things:
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Bailed Out Banks Continue to Raise Loan Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: MoneyFacts
Since Bank Rate dropped to the historic low level of 0.50% in March, loan rates have continued to increase.
In this period half of all lenders offering personal loans, have upped their rates.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Confusing Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The US, UK and European bond markets have all experienced recent double failures at long-term all-time highs. So the long-term technical outlook is bearish. But those failures occurred nearly a year ago. They have fallen since, but from June this year they have lacked any bear impetus at all. Any medium and long-term structures that have developed are far from completion and markets are locked in trading ranges. Traders should stand aside and await events.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Affordable Mortgage Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: LiveCharts
Neil Kokemuller writes: While most banks aren’t currently offering rates at the historically low levels seen earlier this year, overall, mortgage rates are still very affordable. According to bankrate.com, the national average cost for a 30-year fixed rate loan Wednesday (October 21) is 5.23 per cent, compared to 4.99% one week ago.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2009
U.S. Interest Rates Set to Rocket with Falling Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
See our comparison chart between Cash Dollar Index (DXY) and the Proshares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-bond, ETF (NYSE: TBT), in which I am trying to show that right now the vulnerable juxtaposition of the dollar is creating nervousness among bond traders and investors. Once the bond vigilantes get their meat hooks into the bond market, the Fed will have one heck of a challenge on its hands.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009
If Bernake Doesn’t Raise The Fed Interest Rate Very Soon There Will Be BIG Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Andrew_Butter
The debate about whether it was Alan Greenspan’s “fault” will continue for generations, the “other side” summed up their position nicely in a quip that came up in the debate about whether to let the Fed have more power, “ That’s like buying your teenager a sports car after he wreaked the family saloon”.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) Breakout / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I last mentioned Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPs in an article written on September 10 entitled, "If You Don't Like 'em, Then Don't Trade 'em". In that article, I discussed the fact that there were other places to look for that "fat pitch" besides U.S. equities. If you didn't like the risk in equities, then play in another sandbox.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Bernanke Gone Berserk! Bank Reserves Explode! Fed Money Printing Gone Wild! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Martin here with the most shocking new numbers I’ve seen in my lifetime.
My conclusion: Fed Chairman Bernanke has dumped so much funny money into the U.S. banking system and has done so little to manage how that money is used, the fate of our entire economy has now been cast under a dark shadow of doubt.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
The Fed Does Not Care About the Dollar, Easy Money is Here to Stay / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Larson
Every so often, someone decides to pick a fight with me over the Federal Reserve. They say I’ve got it all wrong. They say the Fed is going to prove its mettle. They say that foreign central banks are crying “Uncle” over the dollar, and that this will force the Fed to reverse course and start raising rates.
Monday, October 12, 2009
CEBR UK Interest Rate Forecasts 0.5% Until 2011, Below 2% until 2014 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is forecasting that UK interest rates will stay at 0.5% into 2011 and not reach 2% until 2014.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Bank of England MPC UK Inflation Forecasting Track Record Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Lloyds_TSB
Each year, in the August Inflation Report, the Bank of England reviews the accuracy of the inflation forecasts made by the UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The reports have become of increased interest, as there has been a suspicion that the policy committee has been unduly conservative about the inflation risks facing the UK economy. If true, this would suggest that over the past decade monetary policy may have been tighter than it should have been given the MPC’s strict inflation remit. By extension, GDP growth may have been commensurately, but unnecessarily, weaker. However, some also argue that the MPC has underestimated inflation. If so, there is a risk that policy has been too loose, potentially leading to higher inflation.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
On CNBC: Will Japan Drive Our Interest Rates Higher? / Interest-Rates / Japan Economy
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
I was on CNBC a few days ago discussing the Japan debt situation. Here are my talking points and some additional thoughts – a lot of them I did not have a chance to cover in the previous note or the interview.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
The Securitization Boondoggle / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Whitney
The relentless financialization of the economy has resulted in a hybrid-system of credit expansion which depends on pools of loans sliced-and-diced into tranches and sold into the secondary market to yield-seeking investors. The process is called securitization and it lies at the heart of the current financial crisis. Securitization markets have grown exponentially over the last decade as foreign capital has flooded Wall Street due to the ballooning current account deficit.
Friday, October 09, 2009
What are the Central Banks Up To? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Sy_Harding
At its FOMC meeting last month the Fed said that while it is more confident that the economic recovery is underway, it expects to keep interest rates low for some time to come. Analysts took that to mean until sometime late in 2010.