Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 11, 2010
LIBOR / UK Base Interest Rate Spread Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
UK Interest Rates and GDP Growth Trend Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Bill Gross Say FED Will Exit Easy Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing in March 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: G_Abraham
The latest PIMCO newsletter suggests that 2010 will be year of caution and change. And yet he gives ample suggestions to the coming holocaust in financial markets if things do not go as planned.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Supported by Strong Seasonal Factors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market remained range bound last week. The New Year started off with a full slate of economic data, but the impact on the longer maturities was minimal. It looks like we have a stalemate between weak fundamentals that are supportive and supply concerns that present a headwind for the market for now. Meanwhile – in spite of the weak fundamentals – the risk trade continues to hum along. The market action on Friday was prime example that at this point one can throw the fundamentals out the window and the best strategy is to just buy anything you can get your dirty paws on.
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Saturday, January 09, 2010
UK interest Rates and M4 Money Supply Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Do UK Interest Rates Lead or Lag Inflation? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Could the British Pound Bear a Fresh Slug of Quantitative Easing? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Adrian_Ash
Rearranging the Deck chairs on the QEII -
The BANK of ENGLAND's asset purchase program – better known as "quantitative easing" – was maintained at its £200 billion limit ($318bn) at this week's policy meeting in London.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Bank of England UK Quantitative Easing Money Printing to Hit £275 Billion 2010 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England cut UK interest to a historic low of 0.5% in March 2009 for the objective of boosting the economy so as to enable it to SELL government bonds, however this did not work as bond auctions started to FAIL in March, which therefore triggered the Bank of England hitting the panic button and igniting Quantitative Easing or Quantitative Inflation, having received the green light from the Government a few months earlier.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Cutting Through the Fed U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Claptrap / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Larson
There’s a real debate waging on Wall Street. Just like that famous scene from the 1974 movie Chinatown, where Faye Dunaway’s Evelyn Mulwray goes back and forth saying “She’s my daughter … She’s my sister,” today’s pundits keep debating the Fed. “The Fed will tighten” … “The Fed won’t tighten” … “The Fed will tighten” — the commentary shifts with each new data point that crosses the transom.
Friday, January 08, 2010
UK Government Gilt Bond Selling is Spirited, Buying is Muted / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
The Fed Did NOT Cause the Credit Crunch, It Was Securitization: Here Is Proof! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Andrew_Butter
In Ben’s big speech the other day he said that it wasn’t the Fed’s fault, and that only 5% of the problem was caused by Greenspan dropping the base rate.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Baum Makes Mincemeat of Bernanke's Twisted Zero Interest Rate Logic / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Ivory Tower Doesn’t Have a Mortgage, Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum makes mincemeat out of Bernanke's twisted defense of Fed policy.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds At Risk Following Fannie and Freddie Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The background noise has been considerable. The US Congress, the august body that often passes legislation without reading it, evaluates a new initiative to reinstitute the Glass Steagall Act. Pass it, don't read it! Great idea! In the wisdom from post-Depression seven decades ago, the same Congress imposed firewall separation among the commercial banks, the brokerage houses, and the insurance firms in order to prevent systemic financial sector failure. That is precisely what happened in the last two years, without proper recognition or diagnosis, except by this and some analysts. Insolvent systems do not spring back to life with grandiose infusions of phony money and complete covers for fraud. They remain insolvent.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Bank of England Quantitative Easing Gilts Market Smoke and Mirrors Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's actions throughout 2008 and 2009 have shown that it's primary objective is to massage the UK Government Bond market. The evidence for this is in the fact that the vast majority of the £200 billion of Q,E, has been utilised for the purpose of monetizing government debt i.e. buying gilts to prevent Gilt auction failures and higher yields.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: G_Abraham
Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.
JP Morgan: 78
Morgan Stanley 82
CLSA 83
GS: They still cant believe dollar is rallying let alone leaving a target.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Morgan Stanley Forecasts 5.5% 10-Year Treasuries, 30 Year Mortgages at 7.5% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits.
Monday, December 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash Not Stocks the Big Story of 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s pretend the US is a company.
For starters, this company has a massive debt problem. The official number is $12 trillion and counting, which is roughly the equivalent of one year’s annual production. On the surface, that’s not TOO bad.
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Sunday, December 27, 2009
UK Interest Rate Being Kept Artificially Low For Bank Profiteering / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This UK interest rate analysis represents the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of 2010 forecasts for inflation, interest rates and economy. I aim to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
The Zero Interest Rate Corner, Costs and Isolation 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Think isolation. Think monetization. Think trapped. Think Catch-22, no remotely viable option. Think motive for propaganda. Think end of the road in a gigantic US Treasury bubble, in the process of discredit. Think last resort of monetization, due to the absence of bidders at US treasury auctions. Think pressure like a vise. The USGovt is in a great big bind and chooses not to discuss it. As European nations ponder the plight of sovereign debt default, the United States compares an order of magnitude worse from deeper insolvency. A default closer to home is considered unthinkable. So was a broad mortgage market breakdown. So was an endless housing decline. So was an insolvent broken banking system. So were consecutive $1 trillion federal deficits. All were forecasted here.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bernanke Pushing His Luck on U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Browne
The vast majority of economists now say that the recession is over. Many expect nominal GDP growth as high as four percent in 2010. Now, with the economy assumed to be back on stable footing, some in the private sector are starting to talk about inflation.