Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Frederic_Simons
The 30year T-Bond (ZB September 09) is in an uptrend since it traded above the green resistance line for 2 consecutive bars. However, ZB could be in the process of turning down again after having made an a-b-c correction off its recent lows. A confirmation for this assumption would be visible if and when ZB U9 trades below the red line of the 180 minute chart - preferably for two consecutive bars. The red sell-line is currently at 116'21.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
New Recovery High for Treasury Bond TBT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) has recovered all of yesterday’s weakness and in fact has climbed to a marginal new recovery high this morning on the way to my next optimal target zone of 52.50/80.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Investment Grade Bonds Return 9.2%, Junk Returns 29%; Has the "Hard Money" Been Made? / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
As long as the corporate bond market is healthy there is going to be a bid on equities. And in the first half of 2009, junk bonds have been running.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Objective Analysis of the Increase in the Fed's Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In recent weeks two prominent economic commentators - Arthur Laffer and Alan Greenspan - have warned about the inflationary potential emanating from the unprecedented increase in the Fed's balance sheet. Yes, as shown in Chart 1, reserves created by the Fed have increased by a staggering $858 billion in the 12 months ended May. But excess reserves on the books of depository institutions have increased by almost as much, $842 billion (see Chart 2). So, in the 12 months ended May, 98% of the increase in reserves created by the Fed has simply ended up as idle reserves on the books of depository institutions.
Monday, June 29, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Strong Performance Despite Record Issuance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market put in a strong performance in spite of another record volume of Treasury Note auctions last week. As discussed in this here column last week, Treasury supply has been an ongoing theme in the market for a while. It has been front page news for months now and it is pretty much fully discounted for that reason.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
What PIMCO's Bill Gross Doesn’t Want You to Know (Part 2) / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Stathis
I hope you now understand how mutual funds work. They play the same shell games as the credit card industry. No matter which share class you buy, you are going to pay huge fees. And most investors who haven’t read this piece will never realize that.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
What PIMCO's Bill Gross Doesn’t Want You to Know (Part 1) / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Stathis
I’ve sat by now for about ten years now, waiting for someone from the financial industry to point out what I am about to reveal. I meant to write about this but I kept forgetting.
I have to conclude that no one has written or spoken in the media about what I’m about to reveal because many simply are unaware of what I deem to be obvious. Others don’t want to go against their colleagues in the financial industry. But what these guys seem to forget is that their first loyalty should lie with the investment public.
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Saturday, June 27, 2009
A Case For U.S. Treasury Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
There’s an old saying that goes like this; “The market will do whatever it must to fool the majority of investors”. It’s another way of describing investor sentiment, which is known as a ‘contrary indicator’ (because the majority of investors are extremely bullish at important market tops, and extremely bearish at important bottoms).
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond TLT ETF Continues to Climb / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continue to act well, suggesting equity traders might be getting increasingly afraid of something... and need to buy some safety. Although existing home sales are showing some sign of life now, Mr. (Bond) Market does not seem to care. The TLTs continue to climb off of last Friday’s pullback low at 90.11 and appear headed for a confrontation with the Dec ’08-present resistance line, now at 94.20. A close above 94.20 will be a very bullish technical event near-term and will project the TLT to 96.60 next.
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Bearish Trader Sentiment Bullish for Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market started the week with a decent tone but it pulled back on Thursday as the Treasury announced the details of next week’s bond auctions. In spite of the pull-back, the Long bond managed to eke out a small gain for the second week in a row. Real rates in the long end remain on an increasing trend as CPI declined from -.7 to -1.3% year over year through May causing the real long bond yield to close in on 6%.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Geithner's Plan Just Doesn't Get It: Securitisation Is The Solution - Not The Problem / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Andrew_Butter
Securitisation has a bad name these days, and that's Official; President Obama says it was a big part of the problem. And he's absolutely right; it was THE problem.
What happened was a bunch of shysters on Wall Street cooked up a load of dud securities and sold them all over the world, and then a bunch of morons wrote naked insurance on them and now they can't pay out on the claims.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
UK Gilt Bond Market Looks Vulnerable At These Better Levels / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Friday, June 19, 2009
The Federal Reserve System's Party Line / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: LewRockwell
I monitor statements by senior officials of the Federal Reserve System. There are supposedly "hawks" among the regional Federal Reserve banks – privately owned banks. These "hawks" oppose the "doves." The "doves" are always ready to inflate. The "hawks" are always ready to remind the "doves" that inflation may be a problem one of these days, but not yet. Then the "hawks" vote with the "doves" to expand the monetary base.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
UK Fixed Rate Mortgages Interest Rate Increases / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneySupermarket
Louise Cuming, head of mortgages at moneysupermarket.com, said: "There has been a flurry of activity in the mortgage market, but unfortunately mostly to the detriment of borrowers.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 15, 2009
How to Profit From Front-Running the Government Bond Auctions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes:
Front-running is illegal. Here's how it works: A crooked broker receives a large order from a customer. Before he executes the customer's order, he'll buy the stock in his own account. The customer's order pushes the price of the stock up and gives him an easy profit.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
The Secular Trend Change in U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I am on record stating that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond will move higher over the next 12 months, and this will represent a secular trend change.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates About to Rise / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneySupermarket
- Rising swap rates may herald a new wave of costlier fixed rate mortgage deals
- Two years of decreasing fixed rates have to come to an end
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Interest Rate Hikes Coming as Investors Return to Risky Assets / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bloomberg: Pimco says “rate hikes will be some time in coming” “Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the economic outlook ‘looks bad’ for most of the world and central banks will refrain from raising interest rates.
“‘Rate hikes will be some time in coming,’ Andrew Balls, a managing director for the company in London, wrote in a report on the company’s web site.
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Saturday, June 13, 2009
Ben Bernanke's Next Parlor Trick on U.S. Debt Financing / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Mike_Whitney
Ben Bernanke is getting ready to pull another rabbit out of his hat and he's hoping no one figures out what he's up to. Here's the scoop; the Fed chief needs to "borrow up to $3.25 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30" (Bloomberg) without triggering a run on the dollar. But, how? If the stock market keeps surging, investors will turn their backs on low-yielding US Treasuries and move into riskier securities hoping for better returns. The only way to attract more buyers to US debt is by raising interest rates which will kill the "green shoots" of recovery and make it harder for people to buy homes and cars. It's a conundrum.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
U.S. Fed in Trouble as Falling Dollar Risks Bond Investors Revolt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
Frank Shostak writes: A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June – an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April – a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.