Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 27, 2017
This Chart Reveals Turkey’s Real Economic Position In The Balkans / Politics / Turkey
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : Building economic ties should be the major avenue for Turkey to develop inroads into the Balkans. Turkey is a European power as well as a Middle Eastern power, and it has been a key player in the Balkans for centuries.
But Turkey’s influence in the Balkans and the rest of southern Europe is currently limited at best.
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Thursday, April 27, 2017
The Political Left Has Lost Its Vision / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : French voters headed to the polls on Sunday in the first round of France’s presidential election. With the rise of National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, the election raises the question of what is happening to the “left.” What does it even mean to be on the left?
When the Industrial Revolution led to urbanization, the left became the champion of the poor and the working class. But over the last few decades, this has changed.
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Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Another Potential US Government Shutdown... Oh My! / Politics / Government Spending
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. Congress runs up against their self-imposed borrowing limit once again this week. During the last tussle over the borrowing cap in October 2015, Congress agreed to schedule this week's political theater to occur well after last Fall's elections.
They didn't even bother to guess how much additional headroom would be needed. They just suspended the debt limit altogether. Neither Democratic nor Republican leadership wanted voters focused on borrowing and spending when they went to the polls.
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Wednesday, April 26, 2017
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Something hit me this week. The maps which came out on Monday and detailed the outcome of the French elections, were telling a story, and a familiar one by now. A story of deep division. There are a number of such maps now depicting the Brexit vote in the UK, the US presidential elections, and its French counterpart.
In all three cases they leave me wondering something along the lines of: ‘Are you guys sure you want to remain in the same country with each other?’ Because to me that is not all that obvious, and I think it’ll get less so as time passes. For instance in the case of France, the ‘ideological’ differences between Macron and Le Pen are substantial to say the least, they’re worlds apart.
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Wednesday, April 26, 2017
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like / Politics / US Politics
By: STRATFOR
Reva Goujon : U.S. President Donald Trump approaches his 100-day benchmark on Saturday, a media deluge has already begun bemoaning the demise of the liberal order, celebrating waves of deregulation or simply blaming the president's rocky start on the "disaster" he inherited on taking office. Rather than wade into that predictable morass, we prefer to focus instead on what the next 100 days hold in store.
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Buying American, Losing America / Politics / US Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, President Trump signed his “Buy American, Hire American” executive order. Ironically, while the stated goal is to put “America First,” the White House may actually subsidize old industries and undermine innovation.
Recently, President Trump traveled to Wisconsin to sign the “Buy American, Hire American” executive order, which seeks to crack down on fraud and abuse of the skilled worker (H-1B) visa program.
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Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Real Reason Trump Why Reversed His Stance On NATO, China, and Mexico / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
By Allison Fedirka Donald Trump has recently reversed his stance on a number of key foreign policy issues: NATO, Russia, China, and Mexico. From a geopolitical perspective, Trump’s remarks validated that limitations exist in the real world—even for the US president.
These limitations explain why he has backtracked on some of his key campaign promises.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like / Politics / North Korea
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The possibility of war between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the United States has recently increased. It is necessary to consider what such a war might look like.
I use the term war rather than merely American attacks on North Korean nuclear and missile program facilities. We have to consider the possibility of North Korea’s response and a more extended conflict.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
By George Friedman : During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump advocated for a more disengaged US foreign policy. Involvement in the world would be limited to actions in the interest of the United States.
On the surface, this was not an irrational argument. American involvement—chiefly militarily—has not yielded the outcomes the US hoped for in recent years.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons / Politics / Nuclear Weapons
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : North Korea has received a lot of focus due to a recent missile test and the expectation of another nuclear test. It is a poor country whose nuclear program has allowed it to punch above its weight internationally. This has also forced superpowers to approach it with great caution.
Nuclear bombs are in their own category of weapon. They are useful in that they deter aggression. The potential for massive destruction on both sides forces countries to rethink moves that may threaten an adversary’s national security interests.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Fed Drops MOAB on Wall Street, Swamp Creatures Sack D.C. / Politics / US Politics
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street and our central bank are in for a rude awakening very soon! The idea that the US economy is on stable footing and about to experience a surge in growth is ridiculous. Hence, the consensus that the Fed can normalize interest rates and its balance sheet is nothing short of a bad joke...and it's on them.
For starters, the government's fiscal deficit for the month of March came in at $176.2 billion, which means the deficit 6 months into fiscal 2017 is $526.9 billion and running 15% over last year. If not for the calendar timing of receipts and payments, our government's deficit would be a year-to-date $564.0 billion or 23% above last year. In addition, there was an 18% decline in corporate income tax collection. We all know there was no corporate tax reform passed. So the credible conclusion must be reached that corporations are not growing there profits...they are actually shrinking.
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Monday, April 24, 2017
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City / Politics / Nuclear Weapons
By: Jeff_Berwick
In many ways, you have to feel bad for Americans. They have been on the receiving end of constant fear propaganda for decades.
Just look back to the 50’s with the “Duck & Cover” fear campaign as one example.
Getting malleable young minds to cower under their desks in their government indoctrination camps, as though that would somehow protect them from a nuclear blast, shows that it has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with fear.
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Monday, April 24, 2017
Candidate Trump: 'I Love Wikileaks.' President Trump: 'Arrest Assange!' / Politics / US Politics
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
"I love Wikileaks," candidate Donald Trump said on October 10th on the campaign trail. He praised the organization for reporting on the darker side of the Hillary Clinton campaign. It was information likely leaked by a whistleblower from within the Clinton campaign to Wikileaks.
Back then he praised Wikileaks for promoting transparency, but candidate Trump looks less like President Trump every day. The candidate praised whistleblowers and Wikileaks often on the campaign trail. In fact, candidate Trump loved Wikileaks so much he mentioned the organization more than 140 times in the final month of the campaign alone! Now, as President, it seems Trump wants Wikileaks founder Julian Assange sent to prison.
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Monday, April 24, 2017
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism / Politics / France
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the first round of the French presidential election, “center-right” Macron and “radical right” Le Pen are positioned for a face-off. However, the real story of the election is that Le Pen's agenda has shifted the political landscape toward new French Gaullism.
At the eve of the French election, A gunman opened fire on the Champs-Élysées, killing a police officer and wounding others, while the Islamic State claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, US observers explain the rise of Le Pen on the basis of the French industrial decline, while German observers see France sandwiched between extremists on the Left and the Right.
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Monday, April 24, 2017
Russia Campaigns for the Le Pen French Presidency / Politics / France
By: STRATFOR
The European Union's busy election season is an important campaign opportunity, not only for the politicians running, but also for the Kremlin. Several leaders and governments around the world have accused Moscow of coordinating disinformation campaigns to influence other countries' political affairs over the past year. The Kremlin quadrupled its spending on media activities abroad in its latest federal budget, and since half its projected expenditures are labeled confidential, Moscow may well be devoting hundreds of millions more to the cause. Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia's legislature and a top political strategist, has been stumping across the European Union this campaign season, meeting with representatives of nationalist parties such as Alternative for Germany. And now Moscow has turned its focus toward France as the country gears up for two months of presidential and legislative elections.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Emmanuel Macron vs Marine Le Pen Round 2 - Can BrExit Factor Deliver Le Pen Victory? / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
France is heaving a temporary sigh of relief as the nightmare scenario of a far right Le Pen vs a far left Melenchon round 1 win failed to materialise, instead that which has always been most probable has come to pass, where the two candidates with the most votes going into the second and final round of the French Presidential election will be centrist Emmanuel Macron (23.8%) vs far right Marine Le Pen (21.7%).
Sunday, April 23, 2017
The Upsides and Risks of May's Snap UK Election Decision / Politics / UK General Election
By: STRATFOR
The decision by Prime Minister Theresa May to call a snap election took the United Kingdom somewhat by surprise. When word went out early Tuesday that she was to make an announcement an hour later, rumors about what she would say rumbled across the country, touching on everything from the possible death of the queen to the announcement of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The idea that she would call a snap election initially was dismissed in light of her previous flat denials, but once the other possibilities were eliminated, an election was all that could remain.
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Le Pen vs Melenchon Election Doomsday for France and EU - Hard Left vs Hard Right / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last French poll ahead of Sunday's first round in the French presidential election is resulting in a three horse race from which the 2 front runners will go through to the second round. Centrist Macron leads far right Le Pen by 1% on 23.5% against 22.5% with far left Melenchon snapping at her heels on 21.5%, all within the margins of polling error of 3%! Which means there could easily be a doomsday scenario outcome for France and the European Union, one of the two disruptive anti-EU candidates, Hard Left vs Hard Right going into the second round. Where Le Pen would seek to immediately take France out of the Euro-zone and Anti-German pro Putin Melenchon would seek to impose a 100% tax rate on those earning above e360,000 triggering a French recession, and where his policies of stimulus through printing hundreds of billions of euro debt would also inevitably mean France leaving the Euro-zone, as the ECB controls the printing of Euro's and not the central banks of Eurozone members.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War / Politics / WW3
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Central Asia is crumbling. The speed and extent of this leans in part on political and economic shifts in Russia, China, Afghanistan, and more. Geography is the main reason outside forces are shaping the growth of Central Asia.
Always trapped between major powers such as Russia and China, Central Asia is at risk of war.
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Friday, April 21, 2017
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 / Politics / France
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's anti-establishment Brexit contagion could once more be on the march by spreading from its heavy influence on the US Presidential election, that allowed an alt-reality TV star to con his way into the White House, and thus could similarly allow France's far right Marine Le Pen funded by Putin's regime to squeak her way into the Elysee Palace.
Whilst it is beyond the scope of this video to consider all of the ramifications of a potential Le Pen victory for the French people, one thing is for certain that it would greatly destabilise the European Union as a Le Pen regime would be pro-Brexit and soon announce Frances own FrExit EU Referendum which would amount to the death of the European Union.
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