Category: Stock Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
On the Stock Market the Federal Reserve Impersonates Dikembe Mutombo! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
NBA fans will remember Dikembe Mutombo as the former defensive-minded center who carved his niche in the league by blocking shots. Upon swatting a shot away, Dikembe would shake his head ‘no’ and wag his forefinger back in forth at his opponent as admonishment for even attempting a shot near his presence.
Wednesday, April 04, 2018
Stock Market Close Below the 200SMA is Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 closed below its 200 daily moving average for the first time in 442 trading days yesterday. This is actually a medium-long term bullish sign for the U.S. stock market.
This means that the S&P 500’s trend was insanely strong from the second half of 2016 to January 2018. When the market’s trend was insanely strong and subsequently makes a “small correction”, that “small correction” doesn’t turn into a bear market.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
Revealing Stock Market Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should now continue until May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, April 02, 2018
A Sudden Decline in Market Sentiment is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market soared from 2017 to January 2018. The rally’s acceleration in January resulted in extremely optimistic sentiment from consumers.
- 30% of consumers polled in January by the Conference Board expected stocks to rise in the next few months.
- Today, only 6% of consumers polled by the Conference Board expect stocks to rise in the next few months.
Sunday, April 01, 2018
The S&P Stocks Index Will Probably Breakdown Below its 200 SMA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is hovering just above its 200 day moving average right now.
When the S&P 500 flirts with its 200 sma but doesn’t break below it, it usually breaks below this moving average soon. This is a short term bearish sign for the stock market but has no medium-long term implications. The 200sma becomes a magnet for the S&P in the short term.
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Friday, March 30, 2018
High Volatility is Bullish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market’s recent volatility has been very high. We demonstrated in this study that high volatility is a short term bearish sign but a medium term bullish sign for the stock market. Here’s another way of looking at it.
The S&P experienced 4 consecutive days of >1.5% movements (CLOSE vs. CLOSE $) from March 22 – 27, 2018. Some traders think that such high volatility is “bear market behavior”. I disagree.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Stocks End a Wild Quarter, as Bulls Scratch Their Heads / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday's trading session was pretty uneventful compared to Friday's, Monday's and Tuesday's volatility. Stocks fluctuated along their Tuesday's closing prices, as investors hesitated after slightly better-than-expected Final GDP number release. Will stocks rebound today? Or is this just a consolidation before another leg lower? It seems that there are still two possible future scenarios.
The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.9% and -0.0% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday's sell-off. The sentiment remained pretty bearish despite some better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 index fluctuated along the level of 2,600. It is currently 9.4% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just 0.05%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday, following its Tuesday's sell-off of 3.3%.
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
Sketchy Explanations For Stock Market Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WMA
Each time equity markets enter a corrective phase, the financial media has to find “the reason”. Without knowing “the reason” for selling, their articles would be too short and uninteresting. We posit that equity markets today are driven by animal spirits, with little regard to factors supposedly driving equity market moves. Even in “normal times” (which would not qualify this market), technicians would tell you that news follows the market. In other words, once a price trend is in place, subsequent news events are interpreted to support or explain what is already happening on markets.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Stock Market - 'Get Back In There And Sell, Sell, Sell' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those of you who remember the movie Trading Places, this was a famous scene that I always remember when we see emotional reactions in the market after a downdraft.
And, when I went to read articles being published over the weekend, it seems they were all pretty much in agreement with the sentiment expressed in this scene: “You idiot. Get back in there and sell, sell, sell.”
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
What Happens Next When the Stock Market is Very Volatile / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s volatility is very high right now. And by “volatility”, we’re not referring to VIX. We’re referring to the S&P 500’s daily % movements.
The stock market’s high volatility right now is not rare. There were a lot of historical periods with high volatility. What’s rare is that the stock market’s high volatility right now was preceded by a period of extremely low volatility (i.e. 2017 – January 2018).
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Are Stocks Ready for a Profound Failure? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures made an overnight high of 2679.75 before pulling back. The 38.2% Fib retracement level is 2702.27, which it has not achieved. As the formation stands right now, it would make an a-b-c zigzag. However, a further pullback may lead to yet another push to the trendline and 38.2% retracement. A failure to retrace that level would be profound.
The story line for this rally is Trump’s “Happy Tweet.” ZeroHedge comments, “Just as Trump sent stocks into a tailspin last week with his bellicose trade overtures against China, so the near record (point) rebound in the Dow on Monday is being attributed to a much more diplomatic tone out of the Trump administration, when first Mnuchin, then Peter Navarro played down the threat of a trade war and instead said that the administration is “actively” involved in talks with China to resolve the recent trade tensions between the two nations. Various unconfirmed media reports then also suggested that trade war with China may never materialize (of course, as Mark Cudmore explained this morning, it very well still may). It culminated with a "happy" tweet from Trump himself on Monday night, in which the stock-picking president, hours after confirming his delight with the spike in the market, tweeted "trade talks going on with numerous countries that, for many years, have not treated the United States fairly. In the end, all will be happy!"
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
The World’s Biggest Stock Investors Have Lost $436 Billion In 2018 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: OilPrice_Com
Charles Benavidez: Wall Street is shocked, but it shouldn’t be: Tariffs targeting China should have been a given, and now the market’s tanking on trade war fears as if it just crept up on everyone, but Trump’s been very clear on this.
Wall Street is known for being short-sighted, though, and allowing itself to get caught up in the euphoria of the day. And now the world’s biggest investors are losing hundreds of billions.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stocks Set to Bounce Back, but Bulls' Worries Far From Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their sell-off on Friday, as investors reacted to global stocks markets move down, trade war and monetary policy tightening fears. It was some kind of a perfect bearish storm that sent stock prices tumbling on Thursday, and then on Friday. As medium-term bearish case unfolds, we see indexes getting closer to their early February lows. Will they break lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.8% and 2.1% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained very bearish following Thursday's sell-off. The S&P 500 index broke below the level of 2,600, as it got closer to its February 9 local low of 2,532.69. It currently trades 9.9% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 2.4% on Friday.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stock Market Ready for a Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 should now continue until May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stock Market Complacency Reigns Supreme / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Plunger
I had intended to post part III of my interest rate series, however market conditions dictate that I post views on the current market. This market is now communicating that it is at high risk. For two months now, I have been advocating a strategic retreat. Head for the sidelines and watch the action with an unemotional detachment. The market is now sounding the alarm and one should be on high alert for a downside acceleration.
Plunger’s Bullet Points
Here are the main points I have presented over the past few weeks:
- The market has been in a final Phase III since the Trump election- it lasted 16 months.
- Secondary Reactions rarely occur in Phase III- Therefore, any major decline could very well be the end of the bull market and not just another correction.
- Dec 2017-Jan 2018 was a classic buyers capitulation which traced out as a steeple top in many indexes.
- The proper course of action for investors should be to execute a strategic retreat and head towards the sidelines. One could redeploy capital once the market resolves itself according to DOW Theory methodology.
- Rising rates are in the process of bursting the largest credit bubble in history.
- The bursting of the bubble will usher in a Post Bubble Contraction.
- Gold stock bull markets are most robust within the confines of a PBC.
- Phase I of a new bull market in the gold stocks began in Jan 2016.
- Phase II started in Dec 2016, however initial action is characterized by further consolidation and lethargic action resulting in investor doubt and discouragement.
- Excessive bearishness in the gold sector is unwarranted despite weak looking price action.
The largest financial bubble in history is concluding and one should prepare his bomb shelter and know how to protect oneself.
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Sunday, March 25, 2018
What Happens After the Stock Market Crashes on Thursday and Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market tanked on Thursday (-2.5%) and Friday (-2%). This is rare. Most of the “down on Thursday and Friday” historical cases saw the S&P fall a little on Thursday and accelerate the decline in Friday.
Nevertheless, this is a bearish sign for next Monday but a short-medium term bullish signal for the stock market. Here’s what happens next when the stock market falls more than 2% on Thursday and on Friday.
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Sunday, March 25, 2018
Stock Market Analysis & Warning In Layman’s Terms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long-term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.
Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite-size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Aren’t Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Fed hiked interest rates this Wednesday. This is far from being the last rate hike in this rate hike cycle.
We’ve already shown that rising interest rates aren’t consistently bearish for the stock market. We can look at this idea from another angle.
If rising interest rates are bearish for the stock market, then the stock market should fall after the last rate hike in a rate hike cycle (i.e. the economy and stock market should tank after the Fed has increased interest rates by “too much”).
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Friday, March 23, 2018
Stocks Recovering from a "deep dive" Overnight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures challenged the Cycle Bottom support by declining overnight to 2718.50. It is now in bounce mode and may challenge the trendline today. The 38.2% retracement is almost precisely at the trendline at 2702.83 while the 50% retracement is at 2721.74. Mid-Cycle resistance at 2714.10 is a common retracement point. There is central bank intervention. The question is, how far can they retrace lost ground?
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Watch This Group Signal Stock Market Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation
Many investors would welcome a "secret insight" about the stock market that someone whispers in their ear.
But you can get "tipped off" on when a financial trend is about to change from a very public source that many investors may overlook.
That source is none other than the U.S. government.
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