Category: Financial Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, January 04, 2021
The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Conspiracies and bias hurt investors
It’s no wonder so many people have been unable to attain proper market positioning in 2020. You invest with your heart, soul, fears or even sometimes your intellect and you risk blowing yourself up at worst, or missing out at best. For much of 2020 Twitter has been a forum for ‘influencers’ with tens of thousands of followers spewing dogma and influencing their herds alright. I watched it happen all year, in the Twitter machine and at other venues.
You know the perma-bearish or ‘got gold?’ types, issuing dire warnings and authoritative discussion of just how bad off the world is (well, it ain’t good, I grant them that). But it’s the practical reaction or lack thereof, not the news itself that matters.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Global Speculation Gone Amok - Stocks Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger employs the Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin in his latest analysis of the precious metals markets.
"Gambling is a venture without calculation; speculation is a venture with calculation." — Dickson G. Watts
Being a self-professed speculator in the junior mining space for the past forty-odd years, I used to include that quote in every client letter and in every research piece as a means of reminding readers that the art of speculation involves weighing many different but converging data points. That quote was the brainchild of Dickson G. Watts, an exceedingly successful speculator from the late 1800s and former president of the New York Cotton Exchange, whose book "Speculation as a Fine Art and Thoughts on Life" is a must-read for anyone involved in the financial markets.
With today's credit markets trading on the razor's edge of leverage, never has there been a greater need for us to understand a number of critical realities: 1) that the credit markets are the ultimate arbiter of valuation and risk and stocks merely follow; and 2) that historical measurements used to carry predictive value have today been rendered ineffective due to central bank interventions.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, let’s start with the “shallow people.” And, within the context of markets, I am specifically referring to those with shallow and superficial perspectives about markets.
You see, the typical manner in which many view markets is that they see a market move, look to the news, and assume that the news of the day “caused” the market move that we see.
The reason that this is superficial is because we often see the market move in the exact opposite way one would have expected based upon the substance of the news event, leaving many scratching their heads. And, if you are honest with yourself, you know this has likely happened to you many times.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Confidence Erodes in U.S. Institutions... Is the Dollar Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Confidence in American politics is now rarer than gold.
The U.S. election system, once sacrosanct, is losing the trust of half the country. Which half will depend on the outcome of Donald Trump’s efforts in the courts to demonstrate widespread fraud.
The political left is certain Joe Biden is the rightful winner. They dismiss Trump's legal team as hacks and are unconcerned with the sworn affidavits and other evidence of fraud brought forth in legal cases.
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Access to Critical Market Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Like millions of people, you may have tried your hand at intraday trading this year.
Sure, today’s market platforms make executing your trades easy. But winning consistently is still hard. Especially when the waves are as big as they are right now.
This will help. For 3 days only on November 10-12, our friends at elliottwave.com are hosting a new, trader-focused event, "Critical Opportunities FreePass.".
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
A chart that could be "a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed" shows "a classic loss of momentum"
Legendary financier John Pierpont Morgan was -- for all practical purposes -- a one-man central bank before the Fed came into existence in 1913.
During the financial panic of 1907, the banking titan used his influence to provide bailouts for faltering financial institutions. And, back in 1895, he had actually loaned the federal government money during another crisis.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.
However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.
Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this report, I would like to show you how currency values play an important role in the price of commodities like gold and silver. The analysis here is all about the EUR/USD currency pair to give you an idea of how they can help time and predict future price movement in metals. This is just one commodity pair out of several which provide similar insight and the more pairs that confirm, the stronger our signal and market timing will be.
Commodity bull eras do not need a strong Euro… but it definitely helps if the US Dollar weakens, as anything denominated in it like gold, silver, and oil will have a higher nominal value.
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Friday, October 09, 2020
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
In a world buffeted by political and social "noise," sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines his strategy for maximizing the worth of his portfolio. Before I wade into my Q4 strategy analysis, I have to tell you that prior to last Tuesday's "debate," I was leaning toward a "neutral" investment strategy largely based upon the 2016 outcome where heavily favored Hillary Clinton was upset by the Trump Train at the last hour, and in direct opposition to what every poll was predicting. I have a theory about the 2016 election and just exactly why the pollsters got it so completely wrong. I will explain.
I majored in marketing and finance from 1976's ninth-ranked undergraduate business school in the United States, Saint Louis University, a Jesuit institution of immense reputation and stature. In the marketing courses, they taught us that surveys are only relevant when they have a representative sample size. If you are asking a group of Canadians their opinion of Budweiser beer, you will get a skewed result. If you ask a group of Japanese whether they like "fish and chips," you will get a skewed result. If, in October 2016, you could not find a group of Americans living in the Ozarks or the Louisiana bayou or the Montana wilderness, you would never have obtained a representative sample of the pulse of the 2016 election. And that was where the pollsters went wonky. They chose to speak to metrosexual millennials with the colored glasses and Starbucks lattes rather than the guy in the F150 with the Confederate flag draped in the back window and two shotguns in the rack.
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Thursday, October 08, 2020
Long Term Cycles Suggest Stock Price Reversion Pending & Gold Price About To Explode High / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
- We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
- The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.
My research team and I have been pouring over the long-term data related to the current global markets and central bank efforts to support the global economy in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic… and we have some keen insights I would like to share with you. This research article highlights historical chart phases and trends and shows you how important it is to pay attention to cycles and Super-Cycle events as they continue to trend.
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Monday, October 05, 2020
Trump’s Covid Infection, Bailout Negotiations Raise Market Uncertainties / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are advancing this week as a massive new stimulus bill makes its way through Congress.
On Thursday evening the House of Representatives passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill on a party line vote.
It’s a big deal whenever Congress commits to spending that kind of cash, especially when it’s money that has to be borrowed into existence. These days, though, it’s not that unusual for Washington to dole out trillions of dollars at a time.
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Saturday, October 03, 2020
Monetary and Economic Financial Reset / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
Difficult to contemplate or understand concepts in monetary theory, economics, or the stock market are often described by comparing or referring to natural events observable in our universe. In this article we use three physical phenomena to describe imminent economic transitions: in the creation and issuance of fiat money, the future implosion of our present debt based money, electronic currency applications circumventing banks, new distributed ledger means of conducting business, and the possibility of true global human emancipation.
Ray Kurzweil in his masterpiece book “The Singularity is Near” published in 2005 answers the question as to what is a Singularity. “It is a future period during which the pace of the technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Although neither utopian nor dystopian, this epoch will transform the concepts that we rely on to give meaning to our lives, from our business models to the cycle of human life, including death itself.” Mr. Kurzweil was describing a period in the near future when computer computational and learning power exceeds that of the human brain. A singularity can also be seen as a discontinuity in a system where after reaching an inflection point the prior laws or characteristics of that system no longer apply. Today, there are several global converging singularities which will irreversibly transform our society and human life, several of which we will address here.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Volatility has returned -- and, most likely, it will only heat up from here.
You're probably wondering what's next. So, let our friends at Elliott Wave International help.
In a few days, they're starting a rare event called Unprecedented Year, Unprecedented Opportunities -- FreePass: U.S.
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Friday, September 04, 2020
How to Profit When the Smart Money Leaves Their Footprints / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler: Imagine you’re sitting at a bar in Manhattan. As the bartender’s making your drink, you overhear a conversation from the table behind you.
Two well-dressed men are talking. One looks familiar. He’s a hedge fund manager you’ve seen on TV. You don’t recognize the other guy. But, from the sound of it, they work together.
They’re talking excitedly about one stock, and how they bought $1 billion worth of it today. By the end of the week, they plan to buy several billion more.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
This Group of Wealthy Investors Hoard Cash at Unprecedented Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Yes, stocks have been in rally mode.
Even so, a group of multimillionaires appears to be shifting from an optimistic mindset to one of pessimism about the financial future.
Their solution is hard, cold cash.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Our Proprietary ADL US Markets Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our friends and followers love it when we publish and Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling chart. These are very special charts because they show us what our proprietary predictive modeling system is suggesting is a likely outcome many weeks or months into the future. We wanted to highlight the YM ADL chart, below, because we published it near the end of 2019 in a research article suggesting a deep price correction was setting up for 2020. Additionally, you should be able to follow the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart to see how and where the ADL predictive modeling system suggested the YM price would target.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Five Post-Covid Trends and Gold Price / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The disruptions caused by the pandemic of Covid-19 forced people, companies, governments, and organizations to challenge their basis assumptions about their ways of life and conduct. Some of them might be trivial such as more frequent and thorough hand-washing, but others are much more important, amongst them putting more emphasis on health that came suddenly under threat and social relationships that were so missing during the quarantine. So, the key question is when the epidemic is fully contained, what will be the “new normal” – and how it will affect the gold market?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 10, 2020
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts warning signs of a Fed-driven stock market downturn. There is a now widespread, universally held belief, especially among "dumb money" market participants, that the markets cannot drop because the Fed is going to keep creating money in ever greater quantities to throw at them, pumping them higher and higher.
This erroneous belief appears to be based on an assumption that the Fed cares about the economy or the welfare of the citizenry, when the reality is that the reason it exists is as a "wealth transfer engine" whose prime function is to serve as a mechanism for transferring the fruits of the labor of the population at large to the elite cadre at the top of the pyramid—and they even have a pyramid on their Federal Reserve notes.
They achieve this through "systemic inflation," with a fiat money system in place now for many years that enables them to print unlimited quantities of money, which they gift in the first instance to themselves and their crony associates and large, favored corporations, and then let the rest out into the economy, with the tab for all this being pushed onto the hapless citizenry in the form of inflation. This is why the dollar has devalued by about 97% in purchasing power since the Fed came into existence in 1913.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
Crypto/Blockchain and Central Bank New Digital Currency Directing America’s Near-Term Future
In just a little over one hundred years people’s means of payment for trade has evolved from the original Constitutional requirement that money must consist of gold or silver, to a gold backed paper dollar currency, which at the will of the holder could be converted back into physical gold. Then came the paper dollar currency which for Americans could not be converted into physical gold, while sovereign foreign countries maintained that privilege. The last retreat from gold backing the dollar occurred in 1971, when the gold window was closed to foreign sovereigns. Most of us are only familiar with the paper currency which has no precious metal backing and simply claims that it is a Federal Reserve Note of a specific denomination.
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